UN Same Page Simulation & Asteroid Discussion

Class Updates

  • Grades Released: Grades were released, emphasizing the importance of looking at one's performance relative to the mean.
  • Group Bump: The group bump added approximately 4.5 points to the grade.
  • Seeking Help: Students who underperformed are encouraged to seek help from Grant, Sophie, Joe, or the instructor.
  • No Nearpod: There is no Nearpod assignment for this session.

Final Exam

  • Date & Time: Monday, May 19, 4 PM to 6 PM.
  • Location: The same location as the midterm.
  • Format: Cumulative with an emphasis on lectures 23-29; same format as the midterm (multiple choice + longer answer on paper).
  • Equations: Equations will be provided.
  • Timing: 80 minutes for the individual part, 40 minutes for the group part.
  • More Questions: There will be more questions compared to the midterm.
  • ADS Accommodations: Same as the midterms. Lumasigny details are pending.

Donald Johansson Asteroid Encounter

  • Lucy Mission: Spacecraft named after the "Lucy" fossil, discovered by Donald Johansson.
  • Donald Johansson: Anthropologist who discovered the Lucy fossil, linking humans to ancestors.
  • Asteroid Naming: An asteroid was named after Donald Johansson.
  • Surface Features: Craters on the asteroid's surface are due to impacts.
  • Logos: Official and unofficial (DJ) logos were created for the encounter.

Light Curve Analysis

  • Brightness Variation: The asteroid's brightness varied significantly before encounter.
  • Spacecraft Data: Brightness data was collected from the spacecraft.
  • Elongated Shape: The asteroid is elongated, causing brightness variations.
  • Unusual Flatness: The light curve flattened out at the bottom, an unusual phenomenon.
  • Binary Bodies: The flatness suggests two bodies in contact or near contact.

Size and Albedo

  • Size Discrepancy: The asteroid was larger than expected (9 km x 3.5 km instead of 4 km).
  • Infrared Data: Infrared data was available, but initial interpretations were inaccurate.
  • Implications for Planetary Defense: Size uncertainty impacts planetary defense strategies; a factor of two difference in size has significant consequences on impact effects.

Nested Neck Structure

  • Intriguing Feature: The asteroid has a nested neck structure, resembling ice cream cones put together.
  • Unclear Formation: The formation of two ridges is not yet understood.
  • Shape Model: A preliminary shape model reveals structural features.
  • Flatness: The asteroid exhibits a flat surface, which is unusual for accretion.

UN Same Page Simulation

  • Simulation Context: Participants represent different countries in a UN simulation.
  • Objective: To act as the assigned country would in a hypothetical threat scenario.
  • Real-World Relevance: Planetary defense is a real issue discussed in the UN.
  • Same Page: Established in 2013 to prepare for international response to a threat and develop collaborative research options.

Ground Rules

  • Role-Playing: Participants should role-play their country, considering political dynamics.
  • Decision-Making: Committees must decide how to make decisions (voting, veto power, etc.).

Simulation Steps

  • Introductions: Introduce yourselves, your country/agency, space achievements, challenges, budget, conflicts, etc.
  • Decision-Making Process: Decide how your committee will make decisions (majority vote, weighted votes, veto power).
  • Debate and Discussion: Determine how you will debate and discuss the impact scenario and action topics (speaking order, etc.).
  • Impact Scenario: Review the assigned impact scenario and decide on a course of action.

Committee Scenarios

  • Committee Assignments: Committees 1 and 2 will have scenario 1, committees 3 and 4 will have scenario 2, and committees 5 and 6 will have scenario 3.
  • Lecture 27: Resources, including scenarios and the Same Page threshold and action matrix, are available in lecture 27.
  • Urgency: Emphasize the simulation as a real threat to encourage active participation.

Committee Discussions

  • Introductions: Starting with introductions by committee members, including country names, space program highlights and other relevant information.
  • General discussion of voting procedures and other preliminary concerns.

Detailed Points from Committee Discussion

  • Voting Rights: Each country gets one vote.
  • Threatened Veto: A veto is granted if the impact threatens the country (landing within its borders or waters).
  • Voting Discussion: Concerns regarding specific nations and if they are reliable partners.
  • Budget Discussion: Each country is sharing their budget limitations and considerations for the project based on size and need.

Asteroid Scenario Details

  • Potential Target: Eastern Mediterranean Sea.
  • Estimated Damage: Potential damage of 3,000,000,000,0003,000,000,000,000.
  • Affected countries: Israel, Alexandria, Lebanon, Cairo, Athens.
  • Estimated cost of Space mission: 8,000,000,0008,000,000,000 US dollars

Note: Specific budgetary figures for various nations are discussed, each providing context regarding economic capacity.

Proposed Action Steps

  • Evacuation Consideration: Commence considerations for evacuation protocols in affected cities.
  • Asteroid Study: Initiate on Earth asteroid studies, complemented by launching the reconnaissance spacecraft.
  • Reconnaissance Discussion: There is discussion of whether everyone agress on it.
  • Proposed strategies: Nuclear stategy vs Cost submission
  • Additional costs for recon space: About a billion dollars

Space program partnerships based on each country

  • Germany and Japan are onboard with collaborations on the space program and want to put funding.
  • UAE, UK, Germany, Japan, France and USA committed to this process mission for funding and research.

Proposed Cost measures

  • GDP: The group has come to a consensus in which costs would be divided among its members based on their GDP.

Additional Measures

  • Connecticut Impactor: This measure has 75%~90% chance of success.

Voting outcome:

  • Reconnaissance, studying it from Earth in the Connecticut area. Agreed upon by entire table.
  • Evacuation not required.
  • Connecticut Area (Space base): All in favor.