UN Same Page Simulation & Asteroid Discussion
Class Updates
- Grades Released: Grades were released, emphasizing the importance of looking at one's performance relative to the mean.
- Group Bump: The group bump added approximately 4.5 points to the grade.
- Seeking Help: Students who underperformed are encouraged to seek help from Grant, Sophie, Joe, or the instructor.
- No Nearpod: There is no Nearpod assignment for this session.
Final Exam
- Date & Time: Monday, May 19, 4 PM to 6 PM.
- Location: The same location as the midterm.
- Format: Cumulative with an emphasis on lectures 23-29; same format as the midterm (multiple choice + longer answer on paper).
- Equations: Equations will be provided.
- Timing: 80 minutes for the individual part, 40 minutes for the group part.
- More Questions: There will be more questions compared to the midterm.
- ADS Accommodations: Same as the midterms. Lumasigny details are pending.
Donald Johansson Asteroid Encounter
- Lucy Mission: Spacecraft named after the "Lucy" fossil, discovered by Donald Johansson.
- Donald Johansson: Anthropologist who discovered the Lucy fossil, linking humans to ancestors.
- Asteroid Naming: An asteroid was named after Donald Johansson.
- Surface Features: Craters on the asteroid's surface are due to impacts.
- Logos: Official and unofficial (DJ) logos were created for the encounter.
Light Curve Analysis
- Brightness Variation: The asteroid's brightness varied significantly before encounter.
- Spacecraft Data: Brightness data was collected from the spacecraft.
- Elongated Shape: The asteroid is elongated, causing brightness variations.
- Unusual Flatness: The light curve flattened out at the bottom, an unusual phenomenon.
- Binary Bodies: The flatness suggests two bodies in contact or near contact.
Size and Albedo
- Size Discrepancy: The asteroid was larger than expected (9 km x 3.5 km instead of 4 km).
- Infrared Data: Infrared data was available, but initial interpretations were inaccurate.
- Implications for Planetary Defense: Size uncertainty impacts planetary defense strategies; a factor of two difference in size has significant consequences on impact effects.
Nested Neck Structure
- Intriguing Feature: The asteroid has a nested neck structure, resembling ice cream cones put together.
- Unclear Formation: The formation of two ridges is not yet understood.
- Shape Model: A preliminary shape model reveals structural features.
- Flatness: The asteroid exhibits a flat surface, which is unusual for accretion.
UN Same Page Simulation
- Simulation Context: Participants represent different countries in a UN simulation.
- Objective: To act as the assigned country would in a hypothetical threat scenario.
- Real-World Relevance: Planetary defense is a real issue discussed in the UN.
- Same Page: Established in 2013 to prepare for international response to a threat and develop collaborative research options.
Ground Rules
- Role-Playing: Participants should role-play their country, considering political dynamics.
- Decision-Making: Committees must decide how to make decisions (voting, veto power, etc.).
Simulation Steps
- Introductions: Introduce yourselves, your country/agency, space achievements, challenges, budget, conflicts, etc.
- Decision-Making Process: Decide how your committee will make decisions (majority vote, weighted votes, veto power).
- Debate and Discussion: Determine how you will debate and discuss the impact scenario and action topics (speaking order, etc.).
- Impact Scenario: Review the assigned impact scenario and decide on a course of action.
Committee Scenarios
- Committee Assignments: Committees 1 and 2 will have scenario 1, committees 3 and 4 will have scenario 2, and committees 5 and 6 will have scenario 3.
- Lecture 27: Resources, including scenarios and the Same Page threshold and action matrix, are available in lecture 27.
- Urgency: Emphasize the simulation as a real threat to encourage active participation.
Committee Discussions
- Introductions: Starting with introductions by committee members, including country names, space program highlights and other relevant information.
- General discussion of voting procedures and other preliminary concerns.
Detailed Points from Committee Discussion
- Voting Rights: Each country gets one vote.
- Threatened Veto: A veto is granted if the impact threatens the country (landing within its borders or waters).
- Voting Discussion: Concerns regarding specific nations and if they are reliable partners.
- Budget Discussion: Each country is sharing their budget limitations and considerations for the project based on size and need.
Asteroid Scenario Details
- Potential Target: Eastern Mediterranean Sea.
- Estimated Damage: Potential damage of .
- Affected countries: Israel, Alexandria, Lebanon, Cairo, Athens.
- Estimated cost of Space mission: US dollars
Note: Specific budgetary figures for various nations are discussed, each providing context regarding economic capacity.
Proposed Action Steps
- Evacuation Consideration: Commence considerations for evacuation protocols in affected cities.
- Asteroid Study: Initiate on Earth asteroid studies, complemented by launching the reconnaissance spacecraft.
- Reconnaissance Discussion: There is discussion of whether everyone agress on it.
- Proposed strategies: Nuclear stategy vs Cost submission
- Additional costs for recon space: About a billion dollars
Space program partnerships based on each country
- Germany and Japan are onboard with collaborations on the space program and want to put funding.
- UAE, UK, Germany, Japan, France and USA committed to this process mission for funding and research.
Proposed Cost measures
- GDP: The group has come to a consensus in which costs would be divided among its members based on their GDP.
Additional Measures
- Connecticut Impactor: This measure has 75%~90% chance of success.
Voting outcome:
- Reconnaissance, studying it from Earth in the Connecticut area. Agreed upon by entire table.
- Evacuation not required.
- Connecticut Area (Space base): All in favor.