Presidential General Elections Study Notes

Presidential General Elections Study Notes

I. The Electoral College

  • The Electoral College is a mechanism established by the U.S. Constitution for indirectly electing the President and Vice President of the United States.

II. The States Institute the Popular Vote for President

  • The popular vote refers to the total votes cast by citizens in a presidential election.

  • States progressively allowed voters the right to choose their electors for the Electoral College, leading to the modern practice of popular voting.

  • Most electors are not strictly bound to a particular candidate, allowing for some discretion.

III. The Winner-Take-All Rule and Its Consequences

  • The winner-take-all rule mandates that the candidate receiving the majority of the popular vote in a state is awarded all of that state's electoral votes.

    • This rule is not enshrined in the U.S. Constitution nor in federal law.

    • 48 of the 50 states have adopted this method.

  • Consequences of this rule include:

    • A diminished incentive to vote in 38-44 states, while amplifying vote incentives in 6-12 competitive states.

    • Presidential campaigns focus disproportionately on 6-12 battleground states, promoting policies that cater to those areas.

    • It allows for a scenario where a candidate can win the presidency through the Electoral College despite losing the nationwide popular vote.

IV. The National Popular Vote Plan

  • The National Popular Vote plan aims to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president.

    • It has been enacted into law by 17 states and Washington D.C., representing 209 electoral votes, needing an additional 61 to take effect.

    • The majority of Americans (about 61%) prefer the popular vote method over the Electoral College for electing a President.

V. Presidential Election Outcomes: Who Wins and Why

  • Factors Affecting Election Outcomes:

    • Key elements include the state of the national economy, the popularity of the incumbent, and whether a war is ongoing.

    • Elections are often influenced more by economic conditions than by candidate characteristics.

    • Candidates who were once considered significant public figures but who were mediocre public speakers, such as Eisenhower, LBJ, Carter, W. Bush, Trump, and Biden, have nonetheless won elections.

  • Voter Priorities in Recent Elections:

    • Economy: 87% in 2008, 87% in 2012.

    • Jobs: 80% in 2008, 83% in 2012.

    • Health Care: 73% in 2008, 74% in 2012.

    • Terrorism and foreign policy have also been significant concerns at various times.

2024 Presidential Election Context

  • The competitive landscape for the 2024 election includes states like Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania known as Purple or battleground states.

  • Issues relating to the economy, health care, immigration, and gun policy are likely to define voter preferences as the election approaches.

More Specific Content Regarding Key Concepts

I. Electoral College Details and Functionality

  • The 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution changed the procedure for electing the Vice President but did not change the language regarding presidential selection.

  • Electors:

    • Each state's delegation of electors equals the total number of senators and representatives it has in Congress (e.g., Utah has 4 House seats + 2 Senators = 6 Electors).

    • Electors only serve the purpose of selecting the president, with no other official governmental duties.

    • A candidate must secure a majority (270 or more) of electoral votes to be elected.

  • If no candidate secures a majority, the House of Representatives selects the President, with each state casting one vote.

II. Populist Reform and Popular Vote Process

  • The push for popular vote rights began almost immediately after the Constitution's ratification, with states gradually shifting to allow voters to select electors directly.

  • By 1800-1832, political parties comprehensively took control over the electors' selection, forming statewide slates pledged to their candidates.

  • Voters choose among these party slates, which is how the presidential election is framed today.

  • Modern ballots often emphasize candidates' names, creating an impression of directly electing a president while voters are actually selecting electors.

III. Consequences and Issues with the Winner-Take-All Rule

  • Distortion of Electorate Engagement:

    • Citizens in states where one party dominates may feel their votes have less significance, leading to lower turnout.

  • Candidate Focus:

    • Candidates focus on competitive states during campaigns, creating significant policy imbalances.

  • The potential for a candidate to win the presidency without winning the popular vote creates a fundamental disconnection between public sentiment and election outcomes.

IV. National Popular Vote Plan: Complexity and Challenges

  • The movement for a National Popular Vote seeks to rectify the discrepancies between national public support for presidential candidates and the outcome dictated by the Electoral College.

    • The plan’s failure to gain full traction reflects political inertia and the resistance of states with established winner-take-all systems valuing electoral rewards for incumbents.