10.2

How Does the Campaign Matter?

General Election Overview

• The general election campaign period:

  • Begins approximately from Labor Day to Election Day.

  • The president is officially elected by the Electoral College in December, not on Election Day.

• Example: In 2016, Hillary Clinton received approximately 3 million more popular votes than Donald Trump, but Trump won due to securing more Electoral College votes.

• Significant implications of the Electoral College on campaign strategy:

  • Winner-take-all format in most states, except Maine and Nebraska, whereby the candidate with the most votes in a state receives all that state's Electoral College votes.

  • Importance of competitive states (swing or battleground states) where candidates can realistically win Electoral College votes.

  • Example states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

• Candidates often focus campaign efforts on swing states to maximize voter awareness and engagement.

The Importance of Campaigns

• Campaigns have a significant capacity to educate and inform voters about issues and candidates.

• Win or lose, campaigns matter through the following forces:

  1. Assigning credit or blame for the state of the nation.

  2. Activating latent partisanship.

  3. Allowing voters to judge the candidates' character.

Assigning Credit or Blame for the State of the Nation

• Voters tend to attribute the state of the nation to the president's performance on key issues, such as:

  • Economy

  • National security

  • Public health responses (e.g., pandemics)

• Important to note voter perceptions:

  • Voters have a clearer understanding of overall conditions (unemployment rates, public health crises) than complex economic policies.

• Connection between state performance and election outcomes:

  • Good economy/peace means the incumbent receives credit; poor performance means the challenger gets blamed.

• Example: Ronald Reagan’s 1984 campaign emphasized “Morning in America” during a prosperous period, while Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign highlighted economic recession with “It’s the Economy, Stupid!”

• Concept of retrospective voting:

  • Voters assess past administration performance to make decisions.

  • Often articulated by candidates asking, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

• Prospective voting exists but is less common—voters consider future plans and ideas but often lack information.

Economic Influence on Elections

• Historical data: The economy significantly informs prediction of election outcomes based on election year GDP changes.

• Example: Figure 10.2 shows a direct correlation between incumbent vote share and economic performance; better economies favor incumbents.

• Various factors considered:

  • Unemployment rates

  • Public sentiment on inflation

  • Poll data demonstrating economic conditions matter greatly in voter decision-making.

• Gallup polls highlight economic issues consistently ranked as primary concerns for voters.

• Instances where the economy was overshadowed by foreign policy or crises like COVID-19.

Activating Latent Partisanship

• Campaigns primarily engage with voters by activating their partisan alignment:

  • Approximately 90% of voters align with their party's nominee.

  • Campaigns remind voters of their political identity (e.g., Democratic or Republican).

• Campaign strategies include:

  • Appearances

  • Advertisements

  • Debates

• Voters are encouraged to connect with issues where their party claims competence:

  • Democrats focus on social welfare; Republicans emphasize national security.

• Factors leading to partisan defections:

  • Disagreement on key issues

  • Public dissatisfaction with party performance.

• A declining number of undecided voters indicates partisans are returning to their roots as campaigns progress and remind them of core party beliefs.

The Role of Media and Polling

• Polling reliability discussed: Pre-election polls have shown discrepancies in predicting outcomes.

  • Example: Predictions in 2016 and 2020 often overestimated Democrats' support.

• Understanding polling realities:

  • National polls estimate popular votes, not electoral outcomes.

• Main issues affecting accuracy:

  • Education bias in voter participation.

• Deep-seated issues—Trump supporters' reluctance to participate in surveys.

Judging the Candidates’ Character

• Voter considerations extend to candidate character traits alongside issued-based judgments:

  • Candidates should demonstrate traits such as integrity, leadership, honesty, and empathy.

• Influence of media on public perception regarding candidates—repeated themes shape opinions significantly.

  • Example: Coverage often focused on character aspects during elections (Clinton, Trump).

• Assessments of candidate character classify as valence issues:

  • General agreement on desirable traits (integrity, leadership); contention lies in whether candidates possess these traits.

Comparative Importance of Factors

• Summary of factors influencing electoral success:

  1. Partisanship (most impactful)

  2. Health of the nation (second most crucial)

  3. Candidate character (less influential but still important)

• Importance of recognizing multiple factors at play rather than focusing on a single aspect.