Juries and the CSI Effect
Juries:
As guaranteed by the 6th (criminal case) and 7th (civil cases) amendments people have the right to trial by an impartial jury
Some countries empanel professional juries, in the US, ordinary citizens are selected as jurors
Juries in the American system are non-professional sworn to be the “triers of fact” that means that they decide what happened
They do not “pass judgment”- decide the punishment. That responsibility belongs to the trier of law-the Judge
We are concerned with the Petit. This is the trial jury:
Grand Jury: Indictments
Coroner’s Jury: Cause of death
Rules for deliberations differ by jurisdictions, by essentially-evidence is presented in trial then the jurors retire to a private chamber to discuss it and decide what happened
In most cases where there is complicated evidence, the initial verdict is 7:5 or 8:5
Courtroom Demeanor:
Trier of Fact:
Judge:
Trained in the law
Advanced education
Experience in hearing testimony
Witness of fact
Expert Witness
They do this for a living
Jury:
Not trained in the law
The judge will help them as the trial proceeds
Average of the high school education
Probably never heard real testimony
Most have preconceived ideas
Many don’t want to be there in the first place
This is not their job, and they need help
Preconceived notion of the proceedings from the media
Perry Mason
Law and Order
Media has also given many a preconceived idea of the science involved in the case
CSI
Other forensic shows
Add the 7th amendment
Jury system: Reasons to avoid juries
Thru lack of intelligence, can not learn information necessary to make an informed decision
Because they are uneducated, lack the skills necessary to understand complex information
They have a short attention span and cannot stay focused to understand complex topics
Jury system: Reasons to have juries
Promotes the idea that justice can be coupled with reasonable application of the law
Maintains a dynamic system reflecting public values
Prevents the intellectual class from exerting too much power
Creates public confidence in the legal system
How does the jury reach a consensus?
Everyone explains their vote
The majority states its case
They minority has to justify their case
All these can lead to groupthink
Juries:
None the less- it all starts with the individual juror
When the facts of the trial are complicated the most people have no training to understand the evidence
The expert is supposed to explain it- but studies show that this typically not enough
Challenges:
Scientific Literacy:
In the US, the average juror has a scientific literacy of a high school sophomore
In cases where complicated evidence is being presented, only 14.7% of a jury typically understands it
That 14.7% typically reaches the correct verdict
The remaining jurors typically reach the correct verdict approximately 50%
As a result roughly 65% of the jurors reach the correct verdict on their own
“Group Think” takes over and the jurors side with the majority
The result is that historically, juries reach the correct verdict about 85% of the time. The rest are usually mistrials, hung juries and incorrect verdicts
Groupthink:
This is not unusual
From a neuroscience perspective, brain scans determined that an indivduals’s metacognitive assessments of their own decision making can impacted more by their desire for reward than their perception or memory. The more serious the decision, more important it is to be right. Neurologically, therefore the higher a person confidence will be in their decision. In cases like jury deliberations the reward is being correct and helping the jury reach a verdict. Thus going with the majority
People think they know more than they do
Inflated metacognitive assessment impact an individuals ability to accurately and honestly assess their own understanding of facts and concepts. The lake wobegon effect is the overestimation of ones knowledge and capabilities. It is a tendency of a person to see themselves as better than others. The tendency has been found to be the greatest in countries with the greatest economics disparity like the United states
And another view on inflated metacognition is described by the Dunning-Kruger Effect where people of low skill overestimate their actual ability. It is suggested that his overestimation is due to a combination of facts. First, people of lower competence tend to make poor decisions. Second, once the poor decision is made, the individual doesn’t have the knowledge to know it was a poor decision
These combined with over validation of individuals common in social messaging and the pseudo presentation of science in entertainment lead to the CSI effect
It is reasonable to assume that the average juror believes the verdict they reach, even if they have no reasonable basis for that belief. In the context of a jury once that decision is made, it is then evaluated against the decision of the group
But if the decision wa made by a person without relevant knowledge then the pleasure/ reward centers of the brain are involved. If the reward is secured in the form of agreement with the group, this decision is validated. The individual still has no real knowledge to know whether he/she is actually correct, but he/she now builds the experiential memory of feeling correct. This memory can then be the basis from which decision are made in the future
Challenges:
When the 14% correctly understands the science, this biases the jury to the correct answer
When the 14% have it wrong- the jury is biased to the incorrect verdict
In the past this worked to the benefit of the system
but things are changing
CSI effect:
As result of entertainment media, social media and over validation of individuals self worth, the average person believes he/she has knowledge or expertise they do not have
This certainty can sway a jury as strongly as scientific knowledge
Studies are mixed as to whether or not this benefits the prosecution or defense
How do we address these challenges?
Well trained scientists who can explain the science in a way that the average non-expert can correctly interpret it. Better education across society
University level research oriented people capable of innovating
Quality system designed to maintain accuracy of laboratory services