L7 - Evidence Based Policymaking P1

Urban Policy Analysis Recap

In the News

  • Trip Statistics: 2.2 million trips per week.

  • Cost Comparison: Travelling a distance of 15 kilometers in/out of the city is now roughly double the cost of using public transport.

  • Sensitivity Level: General.

Public Transport Trip Data

Historical Data Overview

  • PT trips per annum (m): 2020 data shows significant changes over decades, including the effects of the 1970s oil crisis.

  • PT Modes Listed: Tram, Trolley bus, Bus, Ferry, Train.

  • Visual Representation: A chart showing PT trips (in millions) from 1920 to 2020.

Carless Day Policy (July 1979 – March 1980)

  • Implementation: One carless day per week, with Thursdays being the most popular choice.

  • Impact on Petrol Consumption: Reduction of approximately 3%.

  • Sensitivity Level: General.

Current Oil Supply Shock

  • Analytical Overview by Bernard Hickey: The current oil supply disruptions are described as significantly larger than any previous historical shock.

  • Volume Lost Metrics:

    • 1970s Oil Crisis: Major historical reference point.

    • Hormuz Blockade (Project Forecast for 2026): Projected loss of 20.0 mb/d.

    • Previous Key Events:

    • Iranian Revolution (1978): 5.6 mb/d

    • Yom Kippur War (1973): 4.4 mb/d

    • Iraq-Kuwait War (1990): 4.3 mb/d

    • Iran-Iraq War (1980): 4.0 mb/d

    • Recent Russia-Ukraine Invasion (2022): 1.0-3.0 mb/d.

Fuel Supply Data

  • Fuel Import Sources: Main sources include South Korea, Singapore, and Australia.

  • Chart Data: Display of annual running totals for crude and refined fuel imports on a NZD basis from 1990-2024.

Closure and Policy Discussions

  • Marsden Point Refinery: Closed in 2022.

  • Policy Response: Government contemplating carless days and fuel mandates from the Muldoon era.

  • Expert Opinion: Liam Dann suggests that carless days may not be an effective response to the oil shock, advocating for public transport subsidies and remote work options instead.

Immediate Actions to Mitigate Oil Shock Impacts

  1. Work from Home: Reduces commuting oil use for remote-suitable jobs.

  2. Reduce Highway Speed Limits: At least 10 km/h reduction to conserve fuel.

  3. Encourage Public Transport Usage: Shift to buses/trains to cut oil demand.

  4. Number-Plate Rotation Schemes: Alternate access to roads to decrease congestion.

  5. Increase Car Sharing: Higher occupancy rates and eco-driving can lower consumption.

  6. Efficient Driving Practices for Commercial Vehicles: Focus on maintenance and load optimization.

  7. Diverting LPG Use: Shift away from transport to preserve LPG for essential uses.

  8. Avoid Air Travel: Cut business flights to reduce jet fuel pressure.

  9. Switch to Modern Cooking Solutions: Promote electric cooking to decrease LPG dependence.

  10. Industry Flexibility: Encourage operational efficiency to lessen oil consumption.

Importance of Impact Assessment

Why Impact Assessment Matters

  • Overall Goals:

    1. Determine if the policy/program has had an impact (yes/no).

    2. Measure the extent of that impact (how much?).

  • Crucial Questions to Consider:

    • What policy options exist?

    • What are the likely outcomes and net benefits?

    • How do policies work in justification of significant financial spend?

    • Evaluate whether to scale up based on effectiveness.

  • Learning from Others: The principle rings historically with the mention of Isaac Newton on building upon previous knowledge.

Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA)

  • Definition: Systematic examination focusing on conserving and restoring environmental quality by mitigating negative effects and enhancing positive outcomes.

  • Goals of EIA:

    1. Ensure environmental considerations are incorporated into decision-making.

    2. Anticipate and mitigate adverse biophysical and social impacts.

    3. Preserve ecological processes and promote sustainable resource management.

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

  • Purpose: Addresses environmental issues at higher strategic levels (policies/plans).

  • Advantages:

    • Proactive and precautionary approaches.

    • Stakeholder participation early in the process.

    • Emphasis on prevention.

Social Impact Assessment (SIA)

  • Purpose: Managing social issues arising from planned interventions.

  • Interdisciplinary Approach: Involvement of various fields to tackle complex social implications.

Summary of Multidisciplinary, Interdisciplinary, and Transdisciplinary Approaches

  • Multidisciplinarity: Combines perspectives from various disciplines without the need for integration.

  • Interdisciplinarity: Integrates knowledge across disciplines to address complex issues.

  • Transdisciplinarity: Involves collaboration between academics and non-academics, transcending traditional academic boundaries.

Conclusion: Evidence-Based Policymaking

  1. Definition and Importance: EBP is centered around informed decision-making utilizing the best available evidence directly impacting policy processes.

  2. Historical Context: The evolution of evidence-based logic noted in policy discussions post-1997 New Labour Government, aiming for rational decision-making.

  3. Final Goal: Achieve thorough analysis and practical adoption of evidence to guide urban issues effectively.