Notes: Financial Institutions in the Global Financial Crisis
Notes: Financial Institutions in the Global Financial Crisis
Introduction and Preface
The book studies the role of financial institutions in normal times and during the global financial crisis (GFC), focusing on three pillars: financial derivatives, bank capital, and clearing and settlement services. The GFC forced many institutions to restructure, seek government support, or even enter insolvency procedures, highlighting concerns about solvency and liquidity and the need for regulator and policy-maker responsiveness.
The Preface outlines three focal questions: (a) the link between risk exposures and the use of financial derivatives by U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), distinguishing between trading and hedging, (b) how bank capital structure affects lending and the role of funding sources during normal times vs. the crisis, and (c) the competitive landscape in clearing and settlement, including how crisis conditions, structure, size, mergers, technology, and geography influence competition.
The structure of the book is three substantive chapters (Chs. 2–4) plus a general discussion and conclusion (Ch. 5). Appendix material provides methodological details, diagnostics, and robustness tests.
The introduction emphasizes the sheer growth of derivatives activity (from under $18 trillion in 1995 to around $270 trillion by 2012) and the shift in regulatory and risk perspectives from praising derivatives for wealth creation and price discovery to recognizing contagion risks and opacity concerns highlighted by the Financial Stability Board (2010).
Key sources include regulatory data (FR Y-9C for banks), stock prices (CRSP), and macro data from the Fed and BEA/World Bank sources. A central methodological thread is the decomposition of risk exposure into systematic factors and the use of two-stage regressions (and related SUR or IV/GMM techniques) to identify causal-like relationships.
The Research Questions and Structure of the Study
Chapter 2 asks: Do financial derivatives affect the systematic risk exposures of U.S. BHCs? Is there a difference between derivatives used for trading vs. hedging? Do bank size and capital alter these relationships? How does the crisis modify these dynamics?
Chapter 3 asks: How does bank capital structure (Tier 1 vs. Tier 2, deposits) influence lending growth in normal times and during the crisis? How do deposits (retail vs. interbank) and bank size influence lending under crisis vs. normal times? What is the role of government guarantees and ownership?
Chapter 4 asks: What is the competitive landscape in clearing and settlement? How do crisis, institutional structure, size, mergers, technology, and geography affect competition? Are ICSDs more competitive than domestic CSDs? How do mergers (horizontal/vertical) affect competition? How does technology development influence competition?
A concluding chapter (Chapter 5) synthesizes the main findings, discusses overarching theoretical and empirical contributions, and outlines policy implications for regulators and market participants.
Chapter 2: The Use of Financial Derivatives and Risks of U.S. Bank Holding Companies
Overview and data scope: The chapter analyzes all publicly listed U.S. BHCs from 1997 to 2012, using FR Y-9C derivatives data, stock prices (CRSP), and macro controls. The sample is split into large vs. small BHCs using a $50 billion asset cutoff (SIFI-like threshold).
Conceptual background: Derivatives activity has expanded dramatically. Early praise (Greenspan 1999; Trichet 2007) emphasized risk management and price discovery; later concerns emphasize contagion risk due to OTC interconnectedness and opacity (FSB 2010). The chapter investigates whether derivatives exposures translate into higher systematic risk exposures.
Hypotheses (from Sec. 2.3–2.3.2):
Hypothesis 2.1: Financial derivatives (interest rate, exchange rate, and credit derivatives) are positively related to BHCs’ systematic risk exposures. This includes both hedging and trading derivatives increasing systematic risk exposures, challenging a simplistic hedging-only view.
Hypothesis 2.1a: Derivatives used for hedging affect risks. Hypothesis 2.1b: Derivatives used for trading affect risks. Both are expected to have a positive link to systematic risk, though the magnitude may differ by purpose.
Hypothesis 2.2: The relationship between derivatives and risks is affected by a BHC’s capital strength (Tier 1 and Tier 2, deposits, etc.).
Hypothesis 2.3: The positive derivative–risk relationship should be stronger for larger BHCs (size effect).
Data and variables (Table 2.1): First-stage variables include stock return (excess over risk-free), market return, interest rate change, exchange rate change, and BBB 5-year yield change (credit risk). Second-stage variables include on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet derivatives measures (notional amounts) and control factors (size, capital ratios, GDP growth, etc.). Derivative variables are also separated by trading vs. hedging purposes (A126/A8725 for trading vs. hedging, etc.).
Empirical methodology: A two-stage time-series cross-sectional framework (consistent with Fama and French 1992) with monthly data and a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) structure in the first stage, followed by panel regressions in the second stage. The first stage yields risk betas (β Market, β Interest, β Exchange, β Credit) for each BHC at each quarter. The second-stage regressions link these betas to balance-sheet variables and derivative exposures (and their notional amounts). The regressions include bank fixed effects and yearly dummies, with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. The study also uses a four-factor market model in the first stage and later incorporates macroeconomic controls and crisis indicators.
Primary findings (2.6 Main results):
The use of financial derivatives is positively and significantly related to BHCs’ systematic risk exposures. Higher use of interest rate derivatives, exchange rate derivatives, and credit derivatives maps to greater systematic risk across those dimensions.
The positive relation holds for both trading and hedging derivatives, with some evidence that the strength of the relationship can vary by derivative type and by BHC size (larger BHCs show stronger associations with some risk betas).
The crisis period (2007–2010) strengthens the linkage between some derivatives and certain risk exposures (e.g., interest rate and exchange rate derivatives). The credit-derivative–credit-risk link becomes less pronounced during the crisis for some specifications.
A decomposition by purpose shows that hedging derivatives, while intended to reduce risk in theory, are positively associated with systematic risk in practice for multiple risk dimensions, suggesting that hedging classifications may not perfectly align with actual risk exposure, at least at the BHC level.
Endogeneity and robustness: The authors acknowledge potential endogeneity concerns (reverse causality from trading revenues to derivatives use). They implement an IV approach (lagged derivatives, trading revenues, and income tax rate as instruments) and apply a two-stage least squares (2SLS) framework. The Anderson–Rubin tests reject the invalidity of instruments; Hansen’s J tests support instrument validity; Kleibergen–Paap LM statistics indicate strong instruments. They also employ a dynamic panel data approach (Arellano–Bond GMM) as further robustness, confirming the main qualitative results. Endogeneity checks show that derivatives for trading appear associated with higher systematic risk, while hedging still shows a positive link in many specifications, reinforcing the central finding that derivatives influence risk exposure, irrespective of classification as hedging or trading.
Sector- and macro-level discussion: The crisis period amplifies certain dynamics (e.g., stronger linkages for some derivative types), underscoring the interconnectedness risks that derivatives may amplify in stressed times. The results also imply that regulation should consider the broader, market-wide risk implications of derivatives activity, not just their intended hedging function.
Chapter 2 conclusion: Financial derivatives are positively linked to systematic risk exposures across dimensions (market, interest rate, exchange rate, credit), with both hedging and trading derivatives contributing to increased risk. The crisis intensifies these relationships in some dimensions, and the size and capital strength of a BHC modulate these effects. Endogeneity issues are addressed via IV and dynamic-panel techniques, and results are robust across specifications.
Chapter 3: Quality of Bank Capital and Bank Lending Behaviour During the Global Financial Crisis
Objective and scope: The chapter analyzes bank lending behavior with worldwide bank data from 2000–2010 (BankScope data for 4197 banks). It distinguishes tier 1 and tier 2 capital, and separate funding sources (customer deposits vs interbank deposits). It investigates how high-quality capital and funding affected lending during the GFC, and how competition and ownership interact with lending during normal times vs. crisis periods.
Key background: Basel III-related reforms and the debate about whether higher-quality capital (tier 1) supports lending during downturns or whether higher capital could constrain lending. The discussion cites Bernanke and Enria as proponents of stronger capital and regulators’ concerns about liquidity and solvency, contrasted with banker concerns about growth implications of high capital ratios.
Research questions and hypotheses (Sec. 3.3): Five main hypotheses addressing (a) tier 1 capital’s effect on credit growth, (b) tier 2 capital’s effect in normal times vs crisis, (c) the role of deposits (retail vs interbank) on lending, (d) concentration/competition (HHI and the impact of competing banks’ Tier 1), and (e) ownership (government vs foreign) and subsidiary status on lending during the crisis. The hypotheses distinguish normal times from crisis periods, and they consider macro and micro factors (GDP growth, regulation, etc.).
Data description (Sec. 3.4): BankScope data for 2000–2010; macro data (GDP growth, interest rates); HHI for competition; COMPTIER1 (average Tier 1 ratio of competitors); ownership dummies (commercial, savings, government, foreign, subsidiary); regulatory variables (overall capital stringency, deposit insurance) and bailout probability (Fitch-based estimate). Banks are grouped by size; several control variables are included (loan loss provisions, tangibility, fixed assets, ROA, etc.). The sample includes banks across many countries and regions, enabling region-specific analysis (OECD vs non-OECD, BRICs).
Empirical strategy (Sec. 3.5–3.6): The core model regresses the growth rate of gross loans on capital structure and funding variables, with interactions for crisis period (dt−1) and with competition variables. Three types of specifications are employed: (i) fixed effects with robust standard errors, (ii) instrumental variables (IV) approach to address potential endogeneity of capital ratios, and (iii) Arellano–Bond-GMM dynamic panel estimation to account for endogeneity in lagged values and other dynamic effects.
Core empirical findings (Sec. 3.6–3.7):
Hypothesis 3.1: Tier 1 capital positively affects credit growth, with a stronger effect during the GFC. IV specifications confirm a positive tier 1–credit growth link, especially via an interaction term with crisis, indicating tier 1 acts as a buffer that supports lending during distress. In some IV/GMM specifications, the direct tier 1 coefficient may be insignificant, but the crisis interaction remains significant and positive, underscoring its crisis-specific buffering role.
Hypothesis 3.2: Tier 2 capital’s effect is positive on normal-times lending but ambiguous or negative during the crisis. The baseline results show some positive tier 2 effects in normal times, but the crisis period’s interaction term is not robustly significant, consistent with the view that tier 2 capital is less effective as a crisis buffer.
Hypothesis 3.3: Retail customer deposits support lending during the crisis; interbank deposits may be relevant in normal times but not during the crisis. The results indicate customer deposits positively affected lending during the crisis; interbank deposits show a mixed pattern (positive in normal times, potentially negative or insignificant during crisis in some specifications).
Hypothesis 3.4: Market concentration (HHI) has a complex role; higher Tier 1 among competitors correlates differently with lending in normal vs crisis times. The findings suggest that competing banks’ high Tier 1 can be associated with stronger lending in normal times but weaker lending in the crisis, indicating a competitive dynamic where capital strength abroad influences lending in a crisis. Horizontal mergers appear to boost competition and lending in some contexts, while vertical integration tends to dampen competition.
Hypothesis 3.5: Government ownership strengthens lending during the crisis, while foreign ownership may dampen it; subsidiary status helps subsidiaries weather crises and sustain credit growth. The results show government-owned banks sustain lending better during the crisis (not uniformly across OECD vs non-OECD). Foreign ownership shows some negative effects on lending in some subsamples; subsidiaries fare better under the crisis than stand-alone banks.
Additional insights: The role of deposits is reinforced—retail deposits serve as sticky, stable funding that supports lending during crises. Banks benefited from government backstops, either explicit or implied, during the crisis. The results align with Berger and Bouwman (2013) and related literature about how capital quality and funding structure influence lending resilience, and extend these findings to a global cross-country context. The regional/subsample analyses indicate that tier 1 capital’s importance for lending is especially pronounced for smaller banks and in non-OECD/BRIC regions during the crisis, while OECD regions show weaker effects, possibly due to stronger existing safety nets or regulatory environments.
Methodological robustness: The IV results (Arellano–Bond/2SLS) show consistent qualitative conclusions, with the crisis interaction term often remaining significant. The analyses also consider subsamples by bank size, region, and ownership type to confirm the general pattern and identify heterogeneity across contexts.
Chapter 3 conclusion: The chapter concludes that high-quality bank capital (Tier 1) and customer deposits bolster lending during the GFC, while Tier 2 capital and interbank deposits had more limited or context-dependent effects. Government support can help sustain lending in crisis periods, especially in non-OECD/BRIC regions, while competition dynamics (competitors’ Tier 1) and ownership structures modulate lending outcomes during crisis versus normal times.
Chapter 4: Competition in the Clearing and Settlement Industry
Objective and data: The chapter analyzes competition in clearing and settlement using unbalanced annual data for 46 institutions across 23 countries from 1989–2012. It applies three competitive measures: the Panzar–Rosse (PR) H-statistic, the Lerner index, and the Boone indicator. It also investigates whether competition differs between ICSDs (international CSDs) and local clearing and settlement institutions, and how competition evolves with scale, mergers, technology, and geography.
Background on clearing and settlement: Clearing and settlement services reduce transaction costs and guarantee safe completion of trades. The four primary providers are domestic CSDs, ICSDs, CCPs, and custodians. The U.S. market features consolidated players under DTCC; Europe’s clearing is more fragmented, with ICSDs like Clearstream and Euroclear playing global roles. Cross-border settlement costs are higher, and initiatives such as TARGET2-Securities (T2S) aim to increase EU settlement efficiency and integration.
Hypotheses (Sec. 4.3):
Hypothesis 4.1 Crisis impact: Competition changed during the GFC (H-statistic shift).
Hypothesis 4.2 ICSD competition: ICSDs experience higher competition than domestic/stable CSDs.
Hypothesis 4.3 Size and competition: Larger institutions are more competitive (PR/other measures) due to economies of scale and multi-market reach.
Hypothesis 4.4 Mergers: Horizontal mergers increase competition; vertical mergers have mixed or negative effects on competition.
Hypothesis 4.5 Technology: Higher ICT development correlates with higher competition.
Hypothesis 4.6 Geography: U.S. clearing and settlement markets are more competitive than European ones.
Methodology: PR model (H-statistic), Lerner index (pricing power), and Boone indicator (linking efficiency to profits). The analysis uses outputs (operating income or total revenue) and inputs (funding costs like AFR, PPE, PCE) and includes a wide set of covariates: dt (crisis), ICSDs, HorizontallyMerged, VerticallyMerged, ICT ratio, US region, Market share (as a size proxy), and time/institution fixed effects. The model also addresses potential endogeneity with IV and fixed effects, and includes robustness checks with alternative revenue measures and subsamples.
Equations and conceptual basis (Sec. 4.4 and 4.4.1–4.4.4):
PR framework: A structural equation linking marginal cost (MC) and revenue to derive the H-statistic. A typical form (log-log cost function) is used:
The marginal revenue side is:
Equilibrium implies ln MC = ln MR, yielding an expression for the output and cost elasticities and the H-statistic as the sum of elasticities to input prices, H = b + c + f (as in the text). The sign and magnitude of H determine whether the market is a monopoly/oligopoly vs. contestable competition vs. perfect competition.
Revenue equation for reduced-form analysis: Here AFR is annual funding cost ratio, PPE is personnel expense ratio, PCE is capital expenditure ratio, and OI/OR controls for other income share.
Lerner index: where P is price (approximated by output measures such as total assets or revenues) and MC is marginal cost estimated from the stochastic frontier analysis of the total cost function. A higher Lerner index indicates less competition.
Boone indicator: A regression of profits on marginal cost: The Boone coefficient b is negative in more competitive settings; more negative values indicate higher competition. The analysis uses 2SLS to address endogeneity of MC and its interactions with factors (dt, ICSD, size, mergers, ICT, US region, etc.).
Key findings (Sec. 4.6–4.8):
PR model results: The H-statistic is typically negative and non-positive across many specifications, supporting monopoly-like or collusive/contestable structures rather than perfect competition. However, during the GFC, H-statistic tended to increase, indicating higher competition in crisis times. In the European region, competition is more constrained than in the U.S., with ICSDs exerting an additional competitive pressure depending on the interaction terms.
ICSDs vs domestic: ICSDs face higher competition in some specifications (positive ICSD interaction terms with input prices), aligning with Hypothesis 4.2; however, structural measures alone (HHI/CR3) suggest high concentration, so the real competitive dynamics require non-structural (conduct) tests as well.
Mergers and competition: Horizontal mergers tend to increase competition (positive b4 + c4 + f4); vertical mergers appear to reduce competition (negative b5 + c5 + f5). This supports a nuanced view where vertical integration may dampen gains from horizontal consolidation in settlement ecosystems.
Technology: ICT ratio is positively associated with competition; higher tech adoption correlates with higher competition (Hypothesis 4.5).
Geography: Competition is higher in the U.S. than in Europe (Hypothesis 4.6).
Lerner index and Boone indicator: The Lerner index is notably high on average (around 0.513), signaling limited competition. In cross-country tests, competition tends to be higher in the U.S. than in the EU, consistent with PR results. The Boone indicator results align: higher competition is associated with lower profits, and different subsamples (ICSD vs non-ICSD, vertical/horizontal mergers) show distinct patterns consistent with the PR and Lerner findings.
Subsamples and robustness (Sec. 4.7): The paper performs regional splits (EU vs U.S., euro area), as well as specialization splits (broad vs narrow CSDs, CSDs vs CCPs). It finds that EU subsamples tend to show stronger monopoly-like patterns, while U.S. subsamples reveal relatively higher competitive pressure. The analysis also tests robustness to accounting standards changes (GAAP to IFRS) and to the presence/absence of vertical integration. Across these robustness checks, key qualitative results persist, though magnitudes vary.
Overall Chapter 4 conclusions: Clearing and settlement institutions tend to operate in noncompetitive markets overall (monopoly-like), but competition has risen over time and is higher in the U.S. than in Europe, partly driven by size and technological advances. Horizontal consolidation tends to boost competition, while vertical integration can dampen it. ICSDs exert competitive pressure in cross-border contexts, potentially reducing domestic monopoly power, but cross-border costs and regulatory barriers remain relevant.
Chapter 5: General Discussion and Conclusion
Synthesis of findings: The three pillars—derivatives and risk, bank capital and lending, and clearing/settlement competition—collectively shape the stability and efficiency of financial systems during the GFC and normal times.
Chapter 2 contributions: It refines the understanding of derivative use by separating trading vs. hedging and by decomposing risk into systematic components: market risk, interest-rate risk, exchange-rate risk, and credit risk. It documents a robust, positive link between derivative usage and systematic risk across instruments and purposes, with size and crisis dynamics shaping magnitudes. The extended four-factor model adds explanatory power for joint risk exposures.
Chapter 3 contributions: It highlights the importance of capital quality (Tier 1 vs Tier 2) and stable funding (retail deposits) for sustaining lending during crises, while competitive effects (competitors’ capital, market concentration) also shape lending behavior in crisis vs normal times. Government ownership emerges as a stabilizing force in some regions during the crisis, while foreign ownership exhibits mixed effects. The results extend Berger and Bouwman (2013) to a global cross-country setting and show heterogeneity by country grouping (OECD vs non-OECD, BRIC).
Chapter 4 contributions: It provides a comprehensive, multi-method examination of competition in clearing and settlement, applying PR, Lerner, and Boone metrics, and finding that while structural concentration is high (particularly in Europe), competition has risen in crises and with technology, and is higher in the U.S. than in the EU. It demonstrates how mergers and vertical integration affect competition differently, and highlights the role of ICSDs in reshaping competitive dynamics.
Theoretical and empirical contributions: The book advances a more nuanced and integrated view of financial system stability by combining deep microfoundations (risk exposures, capital structure, funding composition) with macro- and industry-level dynamics (crisis periods, competition in essential market infrastructure). Methodologically, the work leverages extended risk-factor models, sophisticated panel methods (SUR, IV, GMM), and a triad of competition metrics addressing both structural and conduct-based dimensions.
Policy implications: Regulators should consider the broader, systemic implications of derivatives use, including hedging vs trading classifications, and recognize that hedging derivatives may still contribute to systemic risk. Capital regulation remains central to lending stability, with tier 1 capital playing a pivotal role during crises, especially for smaller banks and in non-OECD/BRIC contexts. Clearing and settlement infrastructures, while historically concentrated, are subject to dynamic competitive forces shaped by mergers, technology, and cross-border integration; policy should balance efficiency with competition to mitigate systemic risk and promote resilience.
Final reflection: The closing chapters emphasize that improving financial system resilience requires a balanced approach combining prudential capital requirements, thoughtful regulation of derivatives activities, robust funding structures, and modernization of market-infrastructure competition. The findings suggest that a one-size-fits-all policy is inappropriate; instead, targeted regulatory and supervisory measures aligned with bank size, ownership structure, regional conditions, and market infrastructure characteristics are warranted.
Key Formulas and Notation (LaTeX)
Chapter 2 first-stage (4-factor-like model for risk betas):
Chapter 2 second-stage: (conceptual form) betas_{it} = f( ext{on-balance-sheet vars}, ext{derivative vars}, ext{controls})
Chapter 2 endogeneity/or IV setup (2SLS) and diagnostic tests (Anderson–Rubin, Hansen J, Kleibergen–Paap): instruments include lagged derivatives, exposures, and tax rate; tests provide validity and strength indicators.
Chapter 3 empirical model (credit growth and capital/funding):
Chapter 4 PR model H-statistic: (conceptual)
where b, c, f are elasticities of revenues with respect to input prices AFR (funding), PPE (personnel), and PCE (capital expenditure), respectively. H = 0 indicates monopoly-like behavior; 0 < H < 1 indicates monopolistic competition with limited entry; H = 1 indicates perfect competition. The reduced-form revenue equation isLerner index:
Boone indicator: , with b < 0 indicating higher competition; IV used to address endogeneity in MC and interactions.
Connections to Foundational Concepts and Real-World Relevance
The analysis links derivatives usage to overall risk exposure, informing risk management, capital planning, and regulatory oversight. It challenges simplistic narratives that hedging automatically reduces risk and that derivatives are purely value-enhancing trading tools.
The capital–lending nexus connects to foundational debates on Basel III, bank funding stability, moral hazard, and the role of government guarantees in crisis lending. The cross-country design highlights how institutional and regulatory differences shape the transmission of capital regulation into real credit supply.
The competition analysis in clearing and settlement bridges industrial organization with financial market infrastructure, emphasizing how technology, mergers, and cross-border integration influence efficiency, resilience, and systemic risk transmission in post-trade markets.
If you’d like, I can tailor a one-page quick-reference cheat sheet or create a topic-by-topic study plan highlighting the most exam-relevant equations, hypotheses, and findings from each chapter.