Blake’s Mechanical Inversion & Rebalance Model
Concept Overview
"Blake’s Model" (provisional name) is a mechanical, pattern–driven trade setup that:
• Requires almost no discretionary higher-time-frame (HTF) bias.
• Exploits the ICT premise that after liquidity is swept, price must rebalance toward inefficiencies (fair-value gaps, FVGs).
• Produces a historical win-rate the speaker estimates at in personal back-testing.
• Works especially well at all-time highs (ATHs) where directional bias is unclear.Core idea:
Identify a clear liquidity grab (previous-day high/low, AM/PM session high, equal highs/lows, etc.).
Wait for an inversion FVG (the highest time-frame imbalance inside the new swing leg).
Enter at that inversion, aim for the nearest unfilled FVG(s), go break-even at the first 1:1, and let a runner seek external liquidity if bias proves correct.
Key Terminology & Building Blocks
Swing Structure Pattern (must appear in order):
• Swing Low (SL)
• Swing High (SH)
• Lower Low (LL) for bullish case / Higher High (HH) for bearish case
• The LL/HH must tag a significant liquidity pool (PDH/PDL, AM high, equal highs, etc.) or a higher-TF PDA (order-block, breaker, etc.).Liquidity Pools: clusters the wider market is watching; entries are only allowed when one has been “washed.”
Inversion Fair-Value Gap (FVG): the highest available timeframe gap inside the new impulse leg (≥3-min, ideally 15-min) that remains unmitigated.
Internal draw: the first unfilled FVG you are targeting; becomes TP1 / break-even trigger.
External draw: the larger liquidity objective (equal lows/highs, session low, daily imbalance, etc.).
SMT (Smart-Money Tool) divergence: If an SMT against your intended direction appears before entry, trade is disqualified (unless an overwhelming HTF narrative says otherwise).
Step-By-Step: Bullish Variant
Confirm market has just printed LL that sweeps sell-side or taps HTF PDA.
Locate the highest-TF unfilled inversion FVG inside the immediate bullish impulse.
Entry: First touch of the inversion FVG (can scale in on 5-min → add on 6-/8-min once those invert).
Stop-loss (SL):
• Conservative – below the liquidity sweep low.
• Aggressive – below last valid order block inside inversion.Initial Target (TP1 / break-even): nearest unfilled 5-min / 3-min FVG inside the new up-leg (seek ).
Runner Target: external drawn liquidity (equal highs, the day’s open, next HTF FVG, etc.).
Trade management: once TP1 achieved
• Move SL to break-even.
• Trail or partial close toward external draw; typical home-run .
Step-By-Step: Bearish Variant
Mirror image: SH → LL → HH that runs buy-side → highest-TF inversion → sell to unfilled FVG(s) → external equal lows, etc.
Risk & Money Management
Fixed risk per trade regardless of setup flavor; do not size up “because it looks better.”
Better to hold consistent risk due to probabilistic nature (you cannot know which 30 % will lose if win-rate ≈70 %).
Break-even protocol at first 1:1 ensures zero further capital at risk while hunting runners.
Standard-deviation tool (ICT style):
• Use manipulation leg .
• Break-even at , let runners aim for to (often coincides with breaker re-test).
Quality Grading
A+ setup (highest expectancy):
• Liquidity sweep is significant & obvious (PDH/PDL, session high, CPI wick, etc.).
• Clear SMT in direction of trade at the sweep.
• Multiple stacked, unfilled FVGs (15-min + 5-min + 3-min) for staggered targets.
• Time-of-day alignment (NY AM macro, NY PM macro).
• No SMT against the bias.B setup: one or more elements missing (e.g., inversion is not highest-TF, liquidity pool less obvious).
Shorts at ATHs are automatically lower probability; treat them as B or worse.
Time-of-Day Filters
Preferred windows:
• 09:30 – 11:10 (NY AM) — enter no later than ~11:10 EST.
• 13:00 – 15:00 (NY PM).Avoid:
• 11:10 – 13:00 lunch lull.
• Very low-liquidity after-hours unless major news.
Practical / Real-World Remarks
Model is the speaker’s go-to for prop-firm evaluations; “gets me funded every time.”
At ATHs there is no external short bias; the model’s break-even logic prevents large losses when bias is wrong.
Best suited for index futures (ES/NQ) but conceptually agnostic to asset class.
Speaker personally prefers live-fund trades only when extra HTF confluence exists, even though statistical edge is good.
Ethical & Psychological Notes
Mechanical nature reduces analysis-paralysis; “your dog could do it.”
Over-leveraging or “full-porting” discouraged despite high win-rate.
Emphasizes months of back-testing before live deployment; one-day trial proves nothing.
Common Q&A Highlights
Q: Which FVG timeframe qualifies as inversion?
A: The highest inside the impulse leg (check 15 m → 5 m → 3 m; minimum 3 m).Q: Multiple inversion FVGs—enter on all?
A: Pick the highest-TF one; lower gaps become staggered TPs.Q: Can I enter on 1-min if 2-min hasn’t inverted?
A: Risky; only acceptable for demonstration or extremely clean price action.
Statistical References
Back-test claim: over summer sample (exact sample size not disclosed).
Typical funded-account target: remaining before hitting profit objective at time of recording.
Back-Testing & Implementation Plan
Collect minimum 1-month intraday data; mark every occurrence of swing pattern + liquidity sweep.
Document outcome vs. following variables: FVG timeframe, time-of-day, SMT presence, HTF bias.
Calculate: hit-rate, average , expectancies; optimize stop placement protocol.
Naming Debate & Humor (Community Notes)
Various comic names proposed: “PBM Mech,” “Brain-Rot Model,” “Turtle Soup 2.0,” “Smoothie Inverse,” “Penda’s Guitar.”
Final label TBD; interim reference = “Blake’s Model.”
Condensed Ruleset (Pin-worthy)
Must have Swing pattern (SL–SH–LL or SH–SL–HH).
LL/HH takes significant liquidity or taps HTF PDA.
No SMT against intended direction (unless overwhelming HTF draw).
Enter on highest-TF inversion FVG (≥3-min, unfilled).
Stop: beyond sweep low/high or OB.
TP1 & BE: first unfilled internal FVG (seek ).
Runners: next unfilled FVGs → external liquidity.
Time filter: 09:30-11:10 & 13:00-15:00 only.
Avoid lunch hour, news spikes unless using evaluation capital.
Maintain fixed risk each trade.
Summary Statement
Blake’s mechanical inversion-and-rebalance model fuses ICT liquidity concepts with strict risk protocols to create a high-probability, low-discretion intraday setup. Proper adherence—sweeping a major liquidity pool, entering on the highest unfilled inversion FVG, securing break-even at the first 1:1, and letting runners reach external targets—yields statistically strong performance while capping downside to negligible levels.
Concept Overview
"Blake’s Model" (provisional name) is a highly mechanical, pattern–driven intraday trade setup that systematically identifies high-probability reversals using specific market structure and liquidity principles.
• It requires almost no discretionary higher-time-frame (HTF) bias, relying instead on the immediate price action and defined triggers. This makes it particularly suitable for traders who prefer rule-based systems over subjective analysis.
• The model explicitly exploits the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) premise that after significant liquidity is swept from a key level, price is compelled to rebalance by moving back toward any existing inefficiencies, specifically fair-value gaps (FVGs). This rebalancing often leads to predictable price movements.
• Through extensive personal back-testing, the speaker estimates this setup yields a historical win-rate of . This high probability setup is a core reason for its effectiveness in funding challenges.
• It works especially well at all-time highs (ATHs) or all-time lows (ATL) where traditional directional bias is often unclear or difficult to establish, as the model primarily focuses on intra-day liquidity sweeps and subsequent rebalancing.
Core idea: The methodology hinges on a distinct sequence of events:
Identify a clear liquidity grab from a significant pool (e.g., previous-day high/low, AM/PM session high, equal highs/lows, or an important higher-time-frame point of interest like an order block). This is the catalyst for the trade.
After the liquidity sweep, price is expected to reverse. The trader then waits for an inversion FVG to form within the new swing leg. This inversion FVG represents an imbalance that price is likely to revisit.
The trade is entered upon the first touch of that inversion FVG. The profit-taking strategy involves aiming for the nearest unfilled FVG(s) as initial targets (TP1). The trade is immediately moved to break-even once the first 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio is achieved, minimizing downside. Any remaining position (runner) is then allowed to seek further external liquidity if the bias continues to hold.
Key Terminology & Building Blocks
Swing Structure Pattern (must appear in order): This specific price pattern signals the potential for a reversal following a liquidity sweep.
• Swing Low (SL): A low price point typically followed by two higher highs.
• Swing High (SH): Follows the swing low, representing a temporary peak.
• Lower Low (LL) for bullish case / Higher High (HH) for bearish case: This is the critical component. The market makes a new low (for a potential long) or a new high (for a potential short), indicating a liquidity grab.
• The LL/HH must confidently tag a significant liquidity pool (e.g., Previous Day High/Low, Asian Session High/Low, London Session High/Low, New York AM high/low, Equal Highs/Lows established earlier in the session, or a higher-time-frame Price Delivery Array (PDA) like an order-block, breaker, or mitigation block). The significance of this tag is crucial for a high-quality setup.
Liquidity Pools: These are specific price levels where large numbers of stop-loss orders or pending orders are clustered, making them attractive targets for institutional participants. Entries into Blake's Model setups are only allowed after one of these pools has been decisively
Concept Overview Detailed
"Blake’s Model" (provisional name) is a highly mechanical, pattern–driven intraday trade setup that systematically identifies high-probability reversals using specific market structure and liquidity principles.
• It requires almost no discretionary higher-time-frame (HTF) bias, relying instead on the immediate price action and defined triggers. This makes it particularly suitable for traders who prefer rule-based systems over subjective analysis, promoting consistency and reducing emotional decision-making.
• The model explicitly exploits the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) premise that after significant liquidity is swept from a key level, price is compelled to rebalance by moving back toward any existing inefficiencies, specifically fair-value gaps (FVGs). This rebalancing often leads to predictable price movements as institutions seek to fill price voids.
• Through extensive personal back-testing, the speaker estimates this setup yields a historical win-rate of . This exceptionally high probability setup is a core reason for its effectiveness, particularly in challenging environments like prop-firm evaluations where consistent gains are critical.
• It works especially well at all-time highs (ATHs) or all-time lows (ATL) where traditional directional bias is often unclear or difficult to establish, as the model primarily focuses on intra-day liquidity sweeps and subsequent rebalancing rather than relying on historical support/resistance levels that may not exist at extreme prices.
Core idea: The methodology hinges on a distinct sequence of events, designed to capture short-term reversals:
Identify a clear liquidity grab from a significant pool (e.g., Previous Day High/Low (PDH/PDL), Asian Session High/Low, London Session High/Low, New York AM high/low, Equal Highs/Lows established earlier in the session, or an important higher-time-frame Price Delivery Array (PDA) like an order-block, breaker, or mitigation block). This liquidity sweep is the fundamental catalyst that indicates a potential reversal.
Wait for an inversion FVG (the highest time-frame imbalance inside the new swing leg). After the liquidity sweep, price is expected to reverse. As the new impulse leg forms in the opposite direction, an FVG that was previously in the old trend direction may now act as support/resistance in the new trend. This FVG, when retested and holding, becomes an "inversion FVG," signaling a high-probability entry point.
Enter at that inversion FVG, aiming for the nearest unfilled FVG(s) as initial profit targets. The trade is then managed by moving the stop-loss to break-even once the first 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio is achieved. Any remaining position (runner) is allowed to seek further external liquidity if the new bias continues to hold, allowing for outsized gains while managing risk.
Key Terminology & Building Blocks
Much of Blake's Model leverages concepts from Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, focusing on market structure, liquidity, and inefficiencies.
Swing Structure Pattern (must appear in order): This specific price pattern is crucial as it signals the completion of a liquidity sweep and the potential initiation of a reversal. For a bullish setup, the pattern should ideally precede an upward move:
• Swing Low (SL): A candlestick pattern where a low is preceded by at least two higher lows and followed by at least two higher lows. It represents a temporary bottom.
• Swing High (SH): Following the swing low, this is a candlestick pattern where a high is preceded by at least two lower highs and followed by at least two lower highs. It represents a temporary peak.
• Lower Low (LL) for bullish case / Higher High (HH) for bearish case: This is the critical component for triggering the setup. For a bullish reversal trade, the market must print a new Lower Low (LL) that takes out previous sell-side liquidity. For a bearish reversal trade, the market must print a new Higher High (HH) that takes out previous buy-side liquidity. This move into a predefined liquidity pool is the "liquidity grab."
• The LL/HH must confidently tag a significant liquidity pool (e.g., Previous Day High/Low (PDH/PDL), Asian Session High/Low, London Session High/Low, New York AM high/low, Equal Highs/Lows established earlier in the session, or a higher-time-frame Price Delivery Array (PDA) like an order-block, breaker, or mitigation block). The significance of this tag is paramount; inconsequential liquidity sweeps are generally disregarded.
Liquidity Pools: These are specific price levels where large numbers of stop-loss orders or pending orders are clustered, making them attractive targets for institutional participants to accumulate or distribute positions, often resulting in sharp price movements. Entries into Blake's Model setups are only allowed after one of these pools has been decisively "washed" or swept, indicating that weak hands have been cleared out.
Inversion Fair-Value Gap (FVG): This is a critical component for entry. An FVG is an area on the chart where only one side of the market (buy or sell) was active, creating an imbalance. An inversion FVG is specifically the highest available timeframe FVG (minimum 3-minute, ideally 5-minute or 15-minute) that forms inside the new impulse leg (the leg that starts after the liquidity sweep) and remains unmitigated (price has not yet traded back into it). This FVG, once price returns to it, is expected to act as support (for longs) or resistance (for shorts), hence the entry point.
Internal draw: This refers to the first unfilled FVG that is closest inside the new impulse leg following the inversion FVG entry. This becomes the immediate profit target (TP1) and is the trigger for moving the stop-loss to break-even, securing the trade and removing further capital at risk.
External draw: This represents the larger, more significant liquidity objective beyond the initial internal FVG. These can be equal lows/highs, a larger session low/high, a significant daily imbalance, or other higher-time-frame PDAs. This is where the "runner" portion of the trade aims to profit from a larger move.
SMT (Smart-Money Tool) divergence: This tool compares the price action of two correlated assets (e.g., ES & NQ futures contracts) to identify divergence. If an SMT divergence against your intended trade direction appears before your entry into the inversion FVG, the trade is generally disqualified, as it suggests a potential lack of institutional conviction for your trade's direction. Exceptions are made only if an overwhelming higher-time-frame narrative strongly supports the trade, overriding the SMT signal.
Step-By-Step: Bullish Variant
This section outlines the precise execution steps for a long trade using Blake’s Model.
Confirm market has just printed a Lower Low (LL) that conclusively sweeps sell-side liquidity (e.g., a previous day low, session low, or equal lows) or taps a significant Higher Time Frame Price Delivery Array (HTF PDA) with a strong rejection. This confirms the initial liquidity grab, which is the foundational trigger for the setup.
Locate the highest-Time Frame (TF) unfilled inversion FVG inside the immediate bullish impulse that forms after the liquidity sweep and the LL. This FVG should ideally be on the 15-minute, 5-minute, or at least the 3-minute chart, and it must not have been filled or retested yet.
Entry: Execute the trade on the first touch of the inversion FVG. This is a precise limit order entry. Traders can scale in by taking an initial position on a higher timeframe (e.g., 5-min inversion), and then potentially add to the position if a lower timeframe (e.g., 6-min or 8-min) also shows a clean inversion and retest, provided the overall structure supports the original premise.
Stop-loss (SL) Placement: Your stop-loss is critical for risk management.
• Conservative SL: Placed safely below the absolute low of the liquidity sweep. This provides maximum protection, but might result in a smaller risk-to-reward ratio for initial targets.
• Aggressive SL: Placed below the last valid order block (OB) or swing low inside the inversion price leg. This aims for a tighter stop-loss to achieve a higher risk-to-reward, but carries a higher risk of being prematurely stopped out by minor market fluctuations.
Initial Target (TP1 / Break-Even Trigger): Aim for the nearest unfilled 5-minute or 3-minute FVG inside the new up-leg. The objective here is to secure a ratio quickly. Once this target is hit, the trade is partially de-risked and management protocols are activated.
Runner Target: The remaining portion of your position (the "runner") aims for external drawn liquidity. This can include established equal highs, the day's opening price, the next significant higher-time-frame FVG, or other prominent liquidity levels. The goal is to capture larger moves beyond the initial internal targets.
Trade Management after TP1: Once TP1 is achieved:
• Move SL to break-even: Immediately move your stop-loss for the entire trade (or at least the remaining runner portion) to your entry price. This ensures zero further capital at risk, guaranteeing that even if the market reverses, you will not incur a loss on this trade.
• Trail or partial close toward external draw: As price moves favorably towards the external draw, you can trail your stop-loss (e.g., using a moving average or structural levels) or take additional partial profits at predefined external draw targets. Typical “home-run” trades for runners can yield or even higher, demonstrating the potential of this model when the bias proves correct.
Step-By-Step: Bearish Variant
The bearish variant is a perfect mirror image of the bullish setup, executed in reverse:
• The market prints a Swing High (SH), followed by a Swing Low (SL), and then a Higher High (HH) that decisively runs buy-side liquidity (e.g., previous day high, session high, or equal highs). This HH acts as the liquidity grab.
• After the HH, price reverses. The trader then identifies the highest-Time Frame (TF) inversion FVG within the subsequent bearish impulse leg.
• Entry is taken on the first touch of this inversion FVG.
• The trade targets nearby unfilled FVGs (internal draw) for TP1 and break-even, and then seeks larger external equal lows or other significant multi-day sell-side liquidity as runner targets.
• All risk management and trade management protocols (fixed risk, break-even at 1:1, trailing stops) apply identically.
Risk & Money Management
Robust risk management is non-negotiable for consistent profitability with any trading strategy, including Blake's Model.
Fixed risk per trade regardless of setup flavor; do not size up “because it looks better.” This means risking a consistent percentage (e.g., 0.5% or 1%) of your total trading capital on every single trade, irrespective of how confident you feel about a particular setup. This prevents emotionally driven over-leveraging and protects capital during losing streaks.
It is better to hold consistent \text{%} risk due to the probabilistic nature of trading. You cannot know which 30% of your trades will be losses if your win-rate is approximated at . By maintaining fixed risk, individual losses have a predictable and manageable impact on your total capital, supporting long-term growth.
The break-even protocol at the first 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio ensures zero further capital at risk while hunting runners. This is a powerful feature of the model, allowing traders to participate in larger moves with no downside exposure once the initial target is met, thereby preserving capital for future trades.
Standard-deviation tool (ICT style): This tool, often applied to the manipulation leg, can provide additional targets and risk management points.
• Use manipulation leg : This refers to mapping the price range from the start of the liquidity manipulation (the Swing Low/High prior to the sweep) to the exact point of the liquidity sweep (the LL/HH). This range serves as the 100% measure.
• Break-even at : The price level corresponding to one standard deviation below (for long trades) or above (for short trades) the manipulation leg's midpoint often coincides with the initial 1:1 target, making it a viable point to move to break-even.
• Let runners aim for to : These extended standard deviation levels often coincide with other significant higher-time-frame targets, such as breaker re-tests or deeper imbalances, providing optimal profit zones for runner positions.
Quality Grading
Not all Blake's Model setups are created equal. Grading setups helps prioritize higher-probability trades.
A+ setup (highest expectancy): These setups possess the strongest confluence and typically offer the highest probability of success.
• Liquidity sweep is significant & obvious (e.g., a sweep of a Previous Day High/Low (PDH/PDL), a major session high/low, a high-impact news wick like Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) or CPI data, or key equal highs/lows that have been visible for hours). The cleaner and more apparent the liquidity sweep, the higher the quality.
• Clear SMT (Smart-Money Tool) divergence in the direction of the trade at the exact moment of the liquidity sweep. For example, if going long, ES makes a new low but NQ fails to make a new low at the same time, indicating divergence and a potential reversal.
• Multiple stacked, unfilled FVGs (15-min + 5-min + 3-min) for staggered targets. The presence of multiple, nested or consecutive FVGs in the direction of the trade offers clear, sequential profit targets and indicates strong directional momentum.
• Time-of-day alignment: The setup occurs during highly liquid and volatile trading sessions, such as the NY AM macro or NY PM macro windows.
• No SMT against the bias: There should be no conflicting SMT divergence at the time of entry, otherwise, it reduces the confidence in the setup.
B setup: These setups have one or more elements missing from the A+ criteria, leading to slightly lower probability or a less clean trade.
• For example, the inversion FVG might not be the highest available timeframe, or the liquidity pool swept might be less obvious or less historically significant.
• The SMT divergence might be present but not perfectly aligned, or there might be minor HTF conflicting information.
Shorts at ATHs (All-Time Highs) are automatically lower probability; treat them as B or worse. At ATHs, there is no historical resistance, and price can continue extending for extended periods due to continuous buying pressure. While Blake's Model can find a short at an ATH, the absence of an external long-term bearish bias makes these trades inherently riskier and less likely to yield large runner profits.
Time-of-Day Filters
Trading during specific, high-liquidity time windows dramatically increases the probability of favorable price action and successful setups.
Preferred windows: These align with periods of high institutional order flow and market participation.
• 09:30 – 11:10 EST (NY AM): This is the opening bell for the New York Stock Exchange and is typically the most volatile and liquid period of the day. Many high-quality setups form during this "macro" window.
• 13:00 – 15:00 EST (NY PM): This period, after the lunch lull, often sees renewed institutional activity, particularly as European markets come offline and before the US close. It's another opportune time for setups.
• Enter no later than ~11:10 EST: Trades initiated much later than this during the morning session often get caught in the impending lunch consolidation.
Avoid: Trading during these periods increases chop and reduces the reliability of setups.
• 11:10 – 13:00 EST (Lunch Lull): This period is characterized by significantly reduced liquidity and increased choppiness as institutional traders pull back. Setups during this time are often prone to false breakouts and whipsaws.
• Very low-liquidity after-hours: Avoid trading unless there is major news driving the market (e.g., FOMC press conference, specific earnings reports) that provides clear directional bias and volume. Otherwise, after-hours trading can be very unpredictable due to thin liquidity.
Practical / Real-World Remarks
These insights offer practical considerations for deploying Blake's Model in a live trading environment.
The model is the speaker’s go-to for prop-firm evaluations; it “gets me funded every time.” Its high win-rate and robust risk management (especially the break-even protocol) make it exceptionally effective for achieving the consistent profit targets required by proprietary trading firms, while minimizing drawdowns.
At ATHs (All-Time Highs) there is no external short bias; the model’s break-even logic prevents large losses when bias is wrong. Since there’s no historical resistance or obvious long-term bearish narrative at ATHs, attempting shorts can be riskier for runners. However, the strict break-even rule ensures that if the short reversal fails to extend, the worst outcome is a break-even trade, preserving capital.
Best suited for index futures (ES/NQ) due to their high liquidity, frequent FVG formation, and predictable reactions to liquidity sweeps. However, the underlying concepts (liquidity, rebalance, FVGs) are conceptually agnostic to asset class and can be applied to other liquid markets like forex or commodities after thorough back-testing.
The speaker personally prefers live-fund trades only when extra HTF (Higher Time Frame) confluence exists, even though the statistical edge is good. While the model is mechanical, adding a layer of HTF confirmation (e.g., a daily bias in the direction of the trade, or a major weekly FVG being tested) can further boost confidence for larger positions or live capital deployment.
Ethical & Psychological Notes
Recognizing the human element in trading is crucial for long-term success, even with a mechanical model.
The mechanical nature of the model significantly reduces analysis-paralysis; “your dog could do it.” This means the rules are so clear and objective that subjective interpretation and emotional second-guessing are minimized, allowing traders to execute setups without excessive indecision.
Over-leveraging or “full-porting” is strongly discouraged despite the high win-rate. Believing that a high win-rate negates the need for proper risk management is a common pitfall. One large, unexpected loss (given the remaining 20% loss rate) due to excessive sizing can wipe out weeks or months of gains.
Emphasizes months of dedicated back-testing before live deployment; one-day trial proves nothing. Relying on a short period of favorable results is misleading. Consistent performance over a statistically significant number of trades (hundreds, preferably thousands) across various market conditions is necessary to truly validate the model's edge and build the confidence required for live trading.
Common Q&A Highlights
Clarifying common questions helps reinforce key principles.
Q: Which FVG timeframe qualifies as inversion?
A: The highest timeframe FVG found inside the new impulse leg that remains unmitigated. This requires checking higher timeframes first: start with 15-minute, then 5-minute, and finally 3-minute. A minimum of a 3-minute FVG is required for a valid inversion. Prioritize the largest, cleanest FVG.
Q: Multiple inversion FVGs—enter on all?
A: Pick the highest-TF one for entry. If lower timeframe FVGs also appear, they should generally not be used for additional entries for the same setup, as they imply a less precise or lower-quality entry. Instead, these lower gaps may serve as staggered initial profit targets (TPs) for your single entry from the highest-TF FVG.
Q: Can I enter on 1-min if 2-min hasn’t inverted?
A: This is generally risky and goes against the rule of taking the highest available TF inversion. It is only acceptable for specific demonstration purposes or in an extremely clean, high-volume price action scenario where confirmation is immediate and undeniable. For live trading, sticking to 3-min and higher is recommended for robustness.
Statistical References
Highlighting performance metrics from back-testing provides credibility.
Back-test claim: over a summer sample. The exact sample size (number of trades) was not disclosed, but the high percentage suggests a robust edge over the observed period. Traders are advised to perform their own extensive back-testing to confirm these numbers for their chosen asset and timeframes.
Typical funded-account target: remaining before hitting profit objective at the time of recording. This illustrates the model's effectiveness in meeting specific funding challenges set by prop firms, where consistent daily or weekly gains are required.
Back-Testing & Implementation Plan
A structured approach to back-testing is crucial for validating the model and building personal confidence.
Collect minimum 1-month intraday data (ideally 3-6 months or more) for your chosen instrument (e.g., ES futures). Use replay data or historical charts. Meticulously mark every occurrence where the swing pattern (SL-SH-LL or SH-SL-HH) followed by a significant liquidity sweep takes place.
Document outcome vs. following variables: For each identified setup, record detailed information about the trade's performance and contributing factors. This includes:
• The FVG timeframe used for entry (15m, 5m, 3m).
• The time-of-day the setup occurred (e.g., 09:45 NY AM).
• SMT presence and direction (Was SMT in alignment? Was there divergence against the trade?).
• HTF bias (Was there a prevailing HTF directional bias, and did it align with the trade?)
• Result (TP1 hit, runner hit, stopped out), R:R achieved, and any notable observations.
Calculate: After collecting sufficient data, analyze the results to derive performance metrics.
• Hit-rate (Win-rate): Percentage of trades that hit TP1 or runner targets.
• Average (Risk Unit): Calculate the average profit or loss in terms of risk units (e.g., profit, loss).
• Expectancy: A key metric that combines win-rate and average R to determine the long-term profitability of the system. Expectancy = (Win Rate * Average Win R) - (Loss Rate * Average Loss R).
• Optimize stop placement protocol: Use the back-testing data to fine-tune your stop-loss placement, identifying whether the conservative or aggressive stop provides a better balance of risk and reward for your preference.
Naming Debate & Humor (Community Notes)
This section provides lighthearted context about the communal naming of the model.
Various comic names proposed by the community reflect the unique aspects of the model: “PBM Mech” (Pattern-Based Model Mechanical), “Brain-Rot Model” (for its simplicity), “Turtle Soup 2.0” (a nod to a classic reversal setup), “Smoothie Inverse,” and “Penda’s Guitar.”
The final label TBD (to be determined); the interim reference remains “Blake’s Model.”
Condensed Ruleset (Pin-worthy)
This section offers a concise, checklist-like summary of the essential rules for quick reference.
Must have Swing pattern (SL–SH–LL or SH–SL–HH): Confirm the characteristic three-point swing structure indicating a potential reversal.
LL/HH takes significant liquidity or taps HTF PDA: The crucial liquidity grab must target a prominent high/low or a strong higher-time-frame point of interest, validating the setup.
No SMT against intended direction (unless overwhelming HTF draw): Absence of counter-directional Smart Money Tool divergence is crucial for high-quality setups, unless a very strong, undeniable higher-time-frame narrative overrides it.
Enter on highest-TF inversion FVG (≥3-min, unfilled): The entry must be precise, at the first touch of the largest, unmitigated Fair Value Gap within the new impulse leg, with a minimum timeframe of 3 minutes.
Stop: Place your stop-loss beyond the liquidity sweep low/high or behind the last valid order block, providing protection against further market manipulation.
TP1 & BE (Take Profit 1 & Break-Even): Secure your initial profit and move to break-even at the first unfilled internal FVG, aiming for a quick risk-to-reward ratio.
Runners: Let remaining positions aim for the next unfilled FVGs and ultimately larger external liquidity targets for extended profits.
Time filter: 09:30-11:10 & 13:00-15:00 only (NY EST): Restrict trading to these high-liquidity, high-probability windows to optimize success.
Avoid lunch hour (11:10-13:00 EST), news spikes, and low-liquidity after-hours unless specifically using evaluation capital with no daily drawdown limits or during major news-driven volatility. These periods are prone to whipsaws and reduced predictability.
Maintain fixed \text{%} risk each trade: Implement consistent percentage-based risk management to protect capital and ensure long-term profitability, regardless of individual trade outcomes.
Summary Statement
Blake’s mechanical inversion-and-rebalance model fuses ICT liquidity concepts with strict risk protocols to create a high-probability, low-discretion intraday setup. Proper adherence—ensuring the market sweeps a major liquidity pool, entering precisely on the highest unfilled inversion FVG, securing break-even at the first 1:1 risk-to-reward, and letting runners reach external targets—yields statistically strong performance while capping downside risk to negligible levels, making it a powerful and consistent system for active traders.