6.2 civil

Case Studies on Resistance Types and Effectiveness

Overview of Case Selection

  • Purpose: Examine the causal relationship between resistance type and effectiveness.

  • Selected Cases: Three campaigns from Southeast Asia:

    • The Philippines: Nonviolent resistance leading to regime change.

    • Burma: Failed resistance attempts against a military dictatorship.

    • East Timor: Resistance against foreign occupation.

  • Criteria for Selection:

    • Two antiregime cases (Philippines and Burma) and one against foreign occupation (East Timor).

    • Presence of both successful and failed nonviolent campaigns.

    • Use of a most-similar case study design for better comparison.

    • No outside material aid to hold constant variables.

Methodology

  • Comparative Analysis:

    • Rigorous case selection method to avoid selection bias.

    • Comparison of expected successful cases and deviant failed cases.

  • Nested Analysis:

    • Involves analyzing both successful (Philippines and East Timor) and failed (Burma) nonviolent campaigns.

    • In-depth study of failed campaigns to identify omitted variables that could explain variation in campaign outcomes.

Case Study: East Timor (1988–1999)

Historical Context

  • Background: East Timor, a former Portuguese colony, was invaded by Indonesia in 1975 under Suharto's regime, justified by claims of communist threats.

  • Impact of Invasion: Massive bombardment led to high casualties, with nearly a third of the Timorese population killed.

  • Response: Initial resistance from FRETILIN (Armed Forces for the National Liberation of East Timor) led to armed struggle from the mountainous jungles.

Resistance Strategies

  • Transformation of Resistance:

    • Kay Xanana Gusmão led a shift from armed resistance to a nonviolent approach.

  • Formation of Clandestine Front:

    • Established a nonpartisan resistance front composed of Armed, Diplomatic, and Clandestine pillars.

    • Promoted inclusivity and initiated peaceful protests in East Timor, Indonesia, and abroad since 1988.

  • Major Protests:

    • Notable protests included the 1988 demonstration during Pope John Paul II's visit and various protests coordinated with foreign officials.

Critical Incidents

  • 1991 Dili Massacre: Indonesian troops killed over 200 peaceful protesters during a funeral procession.

  • International Response: Coverage of the massacre garnered global outrage and shifted perspectives towards the regime.

  • Nobel Peace Prize: Awarded to Bishop Carlos Belo and José Ramos-Horta in 1996 for efforts towards peaceful resolution.

  • Referendum and Independence:

    • A 1999 referendum resulted in 80% voting for independence, but sparked violence from Indonesian-backed militias.

    • UN intervened to stabilize the region, leading to East Timor's independence in May 2002.

International and Domestic Factors

  • Indonesianization Strategy: Engaging local Indonesian activists and public to raise awareness through nonviolent techniques.

  • Internationalization Strategy: Targeting foreign governments and multilateral institutions to apply pressure on Indonesia.

  • Nonviolent Direct Action: Tactics included protests at embassies and cutting military aid by grassroots movements leading to U.S. Congressional actions against Indonesia.

Case Study: The Philippines (1986)

Context of the People Power Movement

  • Goal: Oust dictator Ferdinand Marcos amidst growing corruption and repression.

  • Coalition: Included diverse groups opposed to Marcos including politicians, students, and Church leaders.

  • Events Leading to Uprising:

    • Assassination of opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr. in 1983 ignited outrage and spurred mass mobilization.

  • Opposition Campaign Strategy: A unified, nonviolent approach relying on civilian resistance led by Cory Aquino after Marcos declared himself winner of elections amid allegations of cheating.

Key Events in the Uprising

  • 1986 Snap Elections: Called by Marcos due to increasing unrest; opposition led by Cory Aquino under UNIDO.

  • Outcome: Successful nonviolent campaigns forced Marcos to flee to Hawaii with U.S. military assistance facilitating his departure.

Case Study: Burma (1988–1990)

Background and Uprising

  • Initial Conditions: Rise of military dictatorship since 1962, marked by corruption and repression.

  • Student-led Protests: Events sparked by police brutality grew into nationwide demands for democracy.

  • August 1988 Uprising: A massive and diverse mobilization occurred, calling for regime change.

Challenges and Limitations

  • Failure of the Uprising: Despite initial successes, violence from the military suppressed the uprising, resulting in thousands of deaths and arrests.

  • Political Outcome: 1990 multiparty elections won by opposition went unrecognized by the military, further solidifying their grip on power.

Comparative Analysis of Outcomes

  • Insights:

    • Violent campaigns: Generally failed to compel loyalty shifts within security forces, thus unable to effectively challenge regimes.

    • Nonviolent campaigns: Produced better results, particularly in garnering international support and internal loyalty shifts.

  • Mobilization: Broad-based participation and a decentralized resistance structure correlated with higher resilience and effectiveness against oppression.

  • Media Role: Effective media coverage played a critical role in raising awareness of regime repression, leading to international sanctions and support for nonviolent movements.

Conclusions and Implications

  • Nonviolent Resistance Effectiveness: Findings emphasize success of nonviolent movements in achieving strategic objectives, particularly through loyalty shifts and international pressure.

  • Further Research Recommendations:

    • Measure participation levels, mobilization breadth, and impact of media on resistance campaigns for future studies.