Oligopoly Study Notes

Oligopoly

Definition and Identification

  • Oligopoly: Market structure where:
    • Natural or legal barriers prevent new firms from entering.
    • A small number of firms compete.
  • Examples include markets for computer chips (Intel, AMD), batteries (Duracell, Energizer), and airplanes (Boeing, Airbus).

Barriers to Entry

  • Natural barriers can lead to a natural duopoly (two firms) or natural oligopoly (three firms).
  • Legal barriers can also create an oligopoly even if demand and costs could support more firms.

Small Number of Firms

  • Interdependence: Each firm's profit depends on the actions of other firms.
  • Temptation to Cooperate: Firms may be tempted to form a cartel, which is illegal.
    • Cartel: A group of firms that limit output, raise prices, and increase profit.

Oligopoly Games & Game Theory

  • Game Theory: Tool for studying strategic behavior, considering expected behavior of others and mutual interdependence.
  • Games consist of:
    • Rules
    • Strategies
    • Payoffs
    • Outcome

The Prisoner's Dilemma

  • Two prisoners (Art and Bob) caught committing a petty crime, suspected of a more serious crime.
  • Rules:
    • Each is in a separate cell and cannot communicate.
    • Confessing results in a 1-year sentence, accomplice gets 10 years.
    • If both confess, each gets 3 years.
    • If neither confesses, each gets 2 years for the minor crime.
  • Strategies:
    • Each has two possible actions: confess or deny.
  • Possible Outcomes:
    • Both confess.
    • Both deny.
    • Art confesses, Bob denies.
    • Bob confesses, Art denies.
  • Payoff Matrix: Shows payoffs for every possible action by each player.
  • Outcome: Rational choice leads each player to choose the action that is best for them, given the other player's action.
    • Nash Equilibrium: An equilibrium where each player chooses their best strategy given the strategies chosen by the other players (proposed by John Nash).
  • Dilemma: Best outcome for both is to deny, but the dominant strategy is to confess, leading to a suboptimal outcome.
Finding the Nash Equilibrium
  • Each player considers the consequences of their decision and the potential actions of the other player.
  • Equilibrium is reached when both players confess, resulting in a 3-year sentence each.

The Duopolists’ Dilemma

  • Similar to the prisoners’ dilemma, but played by two firms in a duopoly.
  • Duopoly: Market with only two competing producers.
  • Cost and Demand Conditions: Consider two firms, Trick and Gear, in a natural duopoly.
Collusion
  • Collusive Agreement: Firms agree to restrict output, raise prices, and increase profits (illegal in the U.S.).
  • Strategies:
    • Comply
    • Cheat
Colluding to Maximize Profits
  • Firms in a cartel act like a monopoly.
  • Economic profit is maximized where marginal cost (MC) equals marginal revenue (MR).
  • Each firm agrees to produce a certain quantity and share the economic profit.
  • If one firm increases output (cheats), its profit would increase because price is greater than marginal cost.
One Firm Cheats
  • If one firm cheats and increases output, industry output increases and the price falls.
  • The complier incurs an economic loss, while the cheat increases its economic profit.
Both Firms Cheat
  • If both firms increase output, industry output increases further, the price falls, and both firms make zero economic profit, similar to perfect competition.
Payoff Matrix
  • Illustrates the economic profits or losses for each firm based on their decisions to comply or cheat.
  • Payoff examples:
    • Both comply: Each makes 2 million per week.
    • Both cheat: Each makes zero economic profit.
    • One complies, one cheats: Complier loses 1 million, cheater makes 4.5 million.
Nash Equilibrium in the Duopolists’ Dilemma
  • The Nash equilibrium is that both firms cheat, leading to a competitive market outcome with zero economic profit.

Other Oligopoly Games

  • Include advertising and research and development (R&D) games, which are also prisoners’ dilemmas.
  • Example: R&D Game in the Market for Tissues (Kleenex vs. Puffs).
    • Payoff matrix shows potential profits based on whether each firm invests in R&D.

Game of Chicken

  • Arises when R&D creates a new technology that cannot be patented.
  • Both firms can benefit from either firm's R&D.
  • Equilibrium is for one firm to do the R&D, but it's uncertain which firm will do it.

Repeated Games and Sequential Games

  • Repeated Duopoly Game: Successful collusion and monopoly profit are possible if the game is played repeatedly.
  • Punishment Strategies:
    • Tit-for-Tat: Cooperate if the other player cooperated in the previous period, cheat if they cheated.
    • Trigger Strategy: Cooperate if the other player cooperates, but play the Nash equilibrium strategy forever if they cheat.
Games and Price Wars
  • Price wars might result from a tit-for-tat strategy combined with uncertainty about changes in demand.
  • Falling demand might trigger a round of tit-for-tat punishment.
Sequential Entry Game in a Contestable Market
  • Contestable Market: Firms can enter and leave easily, facing competition from potential entrants.
  • Game Tree: Illustrates the sequence of decisions and payoffs.
  • In the first stage, the existing firm (Agile) decides whether to set the monopoly price or the competitive price.
  • In the second stage, the potential entrant (Wanabe) decides whether to enter or stay out.
  • Equilibrium: Agile sets a competitive price to keep Wanabe out, making zero economic profit.
  • Limit Pricing: Setting the price at the highest level that is consistent with keeping the potential entrant out.

Antitrust Law

  • Regulates oligopolies, preventing them from becoming monopolies or behaving like monopolies.

The Antitrust Laws

  • Sherman Act (1890): Outlawed combinations, trusts, or conspiracies that restrict interstate trade, and prohibited attempts to monopolize.
  • Clayton Act (1914): Made illegal specific business practices that substantially lessen competition or create a monopoly.
  • Federal Trade Commission (FTC): Formed in 1914 to look for cases of unfair methods of competition and unfair or deceptive business practices.

The Clayton Act and Its Amendments

  • Robinson-Patman Act (1936)
  • Celler-Kefauver Act (1950)
  • Prohibit practices only if they substantially lessen competition or create a monopoly, including:
    • Price discrimination
    • Tying arrangements
    • Requirements contracts
    • Exclusive dealing
    • Territorial confinement
    • Acquiring a competitor's shares or assets
    • Becoming a director of a competing firm

Price Fixing

  • Always a violation of antitrust law; no defense if the Justice Department proves its existence.

Antitrust Policy Debates

  • Resale Price Maintenance: A manufacturer agrees with a distributor on the resale price.
    • Can be inefficient if it promotes monopoly pricing.
    • Can be efficient if it provides retailers with an incentive to provide an efficient level of retail service.
  • Tying Arrangements: Selling one product only if the buyer agrees to buy another different product as well.
    • Can allow a firm to price discriminate and take a larger amount of consumer surplus.
  • Predatory Pricing: Setting a low price to drive competitors out of business with the intention of then setting the monopoly price.
    • Economists are skeptical that predatory pricing actually occurs.
    • No case of predatory pricing has been definitively found.

Mergers and Acquisitions

  • The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) uses guidelines to determine which mergers to examine and possibly block.
  • Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI): Used as a guideline.
    • If the original HHI is between 1,000 and 1,800, any merger that raises the HHI by 100 or more is challenged.
    • If the original HHI is greater than 1,800, any merger that raises the HHI by more than 50 is challenged.