PA 50 Lecture 18

Public Affairs Foundations and Debates

  • Course Details

    • Instructor: Professor Gary M. Segura

    • Departments: Public Policy, Chicano Studies, Political Science

    • Dean: Luskin School of Public Affairs

    • Lecture 18

Meeting the Democratic Threshold

  • Key Criteria for Democracy

    • Equal access to ballot

    • Equal weighting of voice

  • Challenges in the U.S.

    • Significant inequality in political power and influence as noted by Bartels and Gilens.

    • Policy effects observable due to unequal voice, especially for vulnerable minorities.

    • Inequality of voice across various issues is problematic.

Bartels and the Evidence

  • Evidence of Inequality in Policies

    • Changes in policies have led to increased inequality.

  • Two Possibilities

    • Working class supports policies favoring the wealthy

    • Wealthy individuals exert greater influence on policy

Elite Coherence and Mass Chaos

  • Election Dynamics

    • Many working-class individuals vote for wealth-concentrating policies.

    • Candidates differ economically, yet elections are not always contested on economic grounds.

    • Voter coalitions often exhibit incoherence against clear party policies.

    • Complexity of voter-leader relationships persists.

Lots of Spilled Ink on This Topic

  • Discussion of Elite Influence

    • Thomas Frank's "What’s the Matter with Kansas?"

      • Socio-cultural issues overpower economic concerns.

      • New conservative populism alters party-class dynamics.

    • Bartels' critique:

      • No substantial behavior change in working-class; religion's influence overestimated.

    • Mark Smith's observation:

      • Working class has embraced GOP economic policies.

More Ink

  • Economic Voting Patterns

    • Gelman et al.: Wealthier states trending Democratic influenced by geographic religious distributions.

    • Income still ties to voting behavior within states.

    • Stable party images persist, with contrasting income representations in Democrats and Republicans.

Party Image Stability

  • Political Behavior Insights

  • Research by Nicholson and Segura (2012) highlights stable party images based on economic perceptions.

    • NES terminology not capturing cultural language as per Frank's insights.

    • Creation of new survey questions for deeper insights into party perceptions.

A bit of Talking Past Each Other

  • Voter Behavior Analysis

    • 2004 elections demonstrated discrepancies:

      • Bush: 62% support from >$200,000 earners vs. 36% from <$15,000 earners.

      • 36% of low-income individuals voted Republican, while 38% of high-income individuals voted Democrat.

Alternative Explanations for Class-Inconsistent Voting

  • Reasons for Voting Trends

    • False Consciousness: Misunderstanding of beneficial policies.

    • Mismatch: Perception of Democrats as elites vs. Republicans as populists.

    • Social Mobility Experience: How personal history shapes political preferences.

    • Aspiration/Fears: Future hopes impact current voting preferences.

    • Sociotropic Considerations: Wholistic societal well-being views influencing decisions.

    • External Considerations: Race, religious beliefs, social values overriding economic issues.

Economic Policies Overview

  • Key Economic Policies from EGSS3 (ANES):

    • Proposals include reforming Medicare, raising minimum wage, adjusting taxes, and altering Social Security.

Personal and Sociotropic Economic Policy

  • Data Visualization showing the impact of economic policies on individuals and society.

Economic Policy Assessment

  • Response Trends among below-median income respondents reflecting personal and national impacts.

    • Index ranges reflecting conservative to progressive views.

Ideological Deviance: Getting it 'Wrong'

  • Comparative Analysis of personal versus societal effects of policies

    • 95% confidence intervals and fitted values noted.

Class-Consistent Policy Evaluations

  • Policy Preferences by Income Groups:

    • Below-median incomes show preference for liberal policies, while above-median voters tend toward conservative policies.

Reflections on Findings

  • Insights Gained:

    • Lower-income individuals often have accurate ideological evaluations.

    • Discrepancies noted in behavior of upper-income individuals who favor liberal policies.

    • Surveys show higher political interest correlating with ideological deviation.

Paths to Political Deviance

  • Voting Patterns among high-income individuals show a split between liberal and conservative views.

    • Notable deviation among low-income individuals despite their liberal preferences.

Back to the Question

  • Understanding Class Views:

    • Assessing whether working class views wealth-concentrating economic policies as beneficial.

Gilens' Perspectives

  • Gilens' Study Overview:

    • Used survey data to track economic policy preferences over 25 years.

    • Higher-class interests prevail over lower-class desires when competing.

    • Policy responsiveness highly correlates with elite opinions contrary to working class feedback.

Comparing Responsiveness Across Income Levels

  • Likelihood of Policy Change:

    • Low income shows no correlation with their desire for change.

    • Strong responsiveness in higher income groups toward policy shifts.

Middle-Class and Very High-Income Responsiveness

  • Trends indicate marginal change likelihood in middle-class perceptions.

    • High-income views indicate a greater likelihood for policy change.