Core 1.2

Stage 1:
- Name: High stationary
- Population Change: Stable
- Birth Rate (BR): High (~35/1000)
- Death Rate (DR): Falls quickly (to ~15/1000)
Stage 2:
- Name: Early expanding
- Population Change: Very fast natural increase
- Birth Rate (BR): High (~35/1000)
- Death Rate (DR): Falls further and remains low (to ~10/1000)
Stage 3:
- Name: Late expanding
- Population Change: Increase slows
- Birth Rate (BR): Falls very low and below DR
- Death Rate (DR): Still falling but slower
Stage 4:
- Name: Low stationary
- Population Change: Stabilizes
- Birth Rate (BR): Low (~10/1000)
- Death Rate (DR): Climbs slightly higher than BR
Stage 5:
- Name: Decline
- Population Change: Natural decrease
- Birth Rate (BR): Falls below 2.1 TFR, resulting in population decline

Definition: The DTM describes the transition of a population from high birth and death rates to lower rates over time.
History: Developed since the Industrial Revolution (1850s), this model outlines five generalized stages of population change.
Natural Change: The difference between the birth rate and death rate that results in population increase or decrease.

Developed countries like Japan show distinct patterns:
- Example (2022): Japan’s BR: 7/1000, DR: 12/1000 (Stage 5)
Strengths of the DTM:
- Applicable to various settings and helps demographers plan for future changes.
Limitations:
- Euro-centric model based on historical data (England, Wales, Sweden), assumes all countries follow the same development path.
- Ignores factors like globalization, migration, natural disasters, or government policies affecting demographics.

Very High Developed Countries (HDCs):
- Example: Japan
- BR: 7/1000; DR: 12/1000
Low-Income Countries (LICs):
- Example: Niger (Stage 2)
- BR: 44/1000; DR: 7.5/1000
Fast-Industrializing Countries:
- Example: Mexico (Stage 3)
- BR: 16/1000; DR: 9/1000

Definition: Population change occurs due to differences in birth and death rates.
Calculation:
- Natural Change in Population (%) = $\frac{(Birth Rate - Death Rate) \times 100}{1000}$
Example from USA (2020):
- Natural Change = $\frac{(11.96 - 8.95) \times 100}{1000} = 0.30\%$

Key Vital Rates:
- Fertility Rate
- Infant Mortality Rate
- Replacement Level
- Net Production Rate

Fertility Rate:
- Measures live births per 1000 women aged 15-49.
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime; a TFR of 2.1 indicates replacement level.
Other Influences:
- Social: Cultural norms, education, and economic conditions shape family decisions.
- Political: Governments may encourage or restrict population growth.

Higher life expectancy influences population growth but fertility rates have been falling.
Global average fertility rate has declined from 4.5-7 children per woman fifty years ago to 2.3 today.

Definition: Average age of death; globally increased from around 30 years in the past to above 70 years today.
- Highest in Japan (84.36 years) and lowest in Chad (52.5 years).
Factors contributing: Improvements in health care, sanitation, and education.

Definition: A graphical illustration showing the distribution of a population by age and sex.
- Used to identify groups: Young dependents, old dependents, and the economically active population.
Features: Dependency ratios illustrate the support needed by young and elderly populations from the working-age population.

Migration impacts population dynamics and structures, leading to challenges in resource allocation and service provision.
- Examples of Countries: USA shows a column-shaped pyramid indicating low infant mortality and a larger working-age population, while the UAE showcases a unique male-to-female ratio due to labor migration.

Definition: A megacity is defined as an urban area with over 10 million people.
Historical Progression:
- First megacity: New York (1950); Currently projected: 33 megacities globally by 2030.

Positive Aspects:
- Rapid urbanization leads to improved education, economic growth, and cultural diversity.
Negative Aspects:
- Pressures on housing, transportation, sanitation, and overall quality of life in overcrowded areas.

Classification:
- Internal: Within a country; External: across national boundaries.
- Voluntary: Choice-based; Forced: Compelled under duress.

Refugee: Those fleeing persecution.
Internally Displaced Person (IDP): Same reasons as refugees but remain within their country.
Asylum Seeker: A refugee awaiting recognition.

Conflict Background: Ongoing civil war since 2011 forced over 50% of Syria’s population into displacement.
- Social Impact: Loss of life, widespread poverty, and educational disruption.
- Economic Impact: Infrastructure destruction and a rise in unemployment.

Political Insecurity: The rise of Boko Haram has displaced over 2.2 million people due to extreme violence, creating humanitarian crises.
- Environmental Impact: Increased pollution and agricultural hardship due to displacement and conflict.

Understanding the demographic transitions, megacity growth, and the societal impacts of forced migration provides a foundation for comprehending global population trends.