Origin of States and State Capacity

Case Study Overview
- Examines the importance of national institutions in Africa, emphasizing their relevance in regions near the capital.
- States in Africa tend to be young and 'weak', which contributes to limited capacity and legitimacy.
- The concept of weak states is viewed partly through the lens of recent historical contexts, such as colonialism.
- Deep-rooted origins of state capacity exist beyond just recent history.
- The antiquity of the state serves as a strong predictor for current levels of development.

GDP Analysis
- Logarithm of GDP per capita in the year 2000 analyzed in relation to the antiquity index of states.
- Non-linear relationship observed, suggesting that an increase in state history by 0.1 approximates an addition of 300 years of effective statehood.

Research Questions
1. What are the fundamental origins of states?
2. What are the foundational causes of state capacity?
Emphasis on geographical factors and warfare impacts on state development.

The definition of a state is complex and nuanced.
Classical Definition by Max Weber (1968): "An entity which upholds the claim to the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force in the enforcement of its order."
Questions arise regarding the minimum population or territorial requirement for a body to be recognized as a state.
- Conventionally, simple chiefdoms may not qualify as states, while a paramount chiefdom that incorporates strong chiefdoms could be seen as an incipient state (Borcan et al., 2018).
In essence, this suggests a necessity for a minimum hierarchical complexity.

Geographical Factors in State Emergence
- Various theories explain the emergence of complex hierarchical societies which can lead to tax-levying states.
- Central to these theories is the Neolithic Revolution and its impacts on agricultural outputs and technologies.
Traditional Theory (Adam Smith and Earlier Scholars)
- The adoption of farming leads to above-subsistence food production, resulting in the emergence of an elite that taxes farmers.
- Mechanisms involved include population pressure, trade, or the need for protection.
- Regional differences in land productivity offer explanations for disparities in the development of hierarchies and, consequently, states.

Graphs and Figures
- Various graphs illustrate state antiquity index and agricultural productivity potential, showing structural changes and historical developments in state formation.

Productivity theory faces questions regarding the patterns of emergence of complex societies.
The timing of complex social structures is scrutinized, particularly why they did not arise earlier, despite surplus production possibilities in hunter-gatherer societies.
Examples exist of regions where complex hierarchies failed to materialize even post-productive agriculture.

Mayshar, Moav, and Pascali postulate that the capacity for elite appropriation of agricultural output is what determines state formation.
The distinction between roots/tubers and cereals is crucial to this examination.
Theoretical Model
- Two groups exist: farmers and non-farmers (e.g., foragers) alongside roaming bandits.
- Farmers must choose between cultivating cereals or roots/tubers, weighed against their vulnerability to banditry and taxation.
- Key Insights:
- Seasonal nature of cereals allows for raiding/taxation; roots/tubers generally do not allow for such exploitation.
- Farmers’ decisions on cultivation mix stem from their relative productivity and perceived risks of theft or taxation.

A measurement strategy is used to forecast the adoption of cereal farming relative to roots/tubers.
First-Stage Regression: Predicting adoption of cereal production based on relative caloric productivity.
Second-Stage Regression: Examining how the predicted cereal cultivation impacts the hierarchical structure based on outcomes like local governance.

Definitive Overview of State Capacity:
- Comprised of the state's ability to (a) collect taxes, (b) enforce law and order, and (c) provide public goods.
- Any shortcomings in these aspects lead to negative consequences for economic growth.
Theoretical frameworks suggest that state capacity outcomes may also have roots in geographical predispositions.

The necessity of state defense serves as a critical state function.
Historical observations indicate that wars catalyze local state formation and enhance capacity, particularly from documented events like the Napoleonic Wars.
Military Fiscalities: Discussions on income taxes during wars emphasize how rulers need the consent of populous in exchange for public goods.

Becker et al. (2020) examine the interrelationship of wars, taxation, and state capacity.
Analysis of fragmented German states during conflicts illustrates varying state capacities stemming from local governance dynamics.
Outcomes derive from mechanisms linking specific individuals in rulership (gender of firstborn as an instrumental variable), assessing influence on conflict and subsequent political structures.

Increasing state capacity and legitimacy is fundamental for development.
The European context shows a historical precedence where wars influenced the trajectory of state capacity.
For less developed nations, the challenge remains to identify effective taxation strategies to bolster fiscal capacity and state legitimacy.
Substantial methodological evidence indicates that increased formal taxation processes likely encourage inclusive institutions, providing a model for developmental strategies in emerging states.