Pfaff_War+on+Drugs+and+Prison+Growth_Harvard+Legislative+Journal

Dramatic rise in imprisonment in the US over the past forty years.
Incarceration increased from ~300,000 to 1.6 million inmates (100 to 500 per 100,000).
US is now the world's largest jailer (5% of global population but 20% of its prisoners).
The 'War on Drugs' often cited as a major cause of this increase in incarceration rates.
The Reagan-era War on Drugs coincided with a marked increase in incarceration.

Recent state efforts to reduce prison growth focus on drug enforcement reforms:
- New York weakened Rockefeller Drug Laws.
- Congress reduced penalties for crack-related offenses; President Obama commuted sentences.
- California reduced crack sentences.
- Missouri decriminalized marijuana possession.

The link between the War on Drugs and prison growth is oversimplified.
This article seeks to analyze the weak empirical support for common beliefs about this relationship.
The impact of the War on Drugs on prison growth is likely exaggerated, with many causes being beyond legislative control.

Direct Incarceration of Drug Offenders
- Drug offenders account for only 17% of state prison population, contributing roughly 20% to total prison growth since 1980.
Re-incarceration due to Drug-Related Parole Violations
- Second admissions due to parole violations are small in number; may reflect increased parole releases as well.
Impact of Drug Incarcerations on Admissions vs. Population
- Drug offenders generally serve short sentences, thus increasing inflow rather than causing long-term population growth.
Recidivism Triggered by Drug Offenses
- Prior drug offenses do not significantly impact future non-drug incarceration rates.
Neighborhood Stability
- Drug enforcement may disrupt community stability, potentially influencing incarceration rates indirectly by raising prosecutorial aggression.

Between 1980-2009, only a small fraction of total state prison growth attributed to drug offenders (21%).
Larger contributions came from violent and property offenders.

Drug enforcement does not significantly alter the racial composition of prison populations.
Roughly equal racial distribution among violent, property, and drug offenses; scaling back drug incarceration minimally affects racial disparity.

Drug-related technical violations do not substantially contribute to prison admissions or population growth.
Data indicate that most violations are for substantive offenses.

The US tends to focus on daily prison populations rather than the flow of individuals through the system.
Policy implications stress the importance of understanding both admissions and exits.

Decriminalization and Sentence Reduction
- Likely limited impact on drug-related incarceration given the existing short sentences and low percentages of drug imprisonment.
Parole Reform
- Potential for reducing technical violations, but evidence shows that these do not significantly affect overall incarceration rates.
Regulating Prosecutors
- Prosecutorial decisions play a dominant role in determining incarceration rates, yet legislators have limited control.
- Options include imposing guidelines to influence charging decisions and reducing the financial incentives that lead to aggressive prosecutions.

Despite the limited impact of drug incarceration on overall prison growth, reforming the War on Drugs remains vital.
While conventional reforms may appear ineffective on the surface, focusing on the discretion and actions of prosecutorial and law enforcement may yield more significant results in reducing incarceration rates.