13. Public Opinion

1. Public Opinion

• Public opinion – opinions held by priv persons which gov finds prudent to heed
  • What is “public” – collection of priv persons; ppl not in public capacity
  • National public opinion = mass public (group of ppl in society)
  • What “opinion” – view or position on a question
  • Public opinion = aggregation of individual opinions
  • On topics that affect gov/future

1.1 Why Public Opinion Matters

• So ppl can critic gov and gov listens – 1st amendment
  • Right to assembly = ppl voice opinion on politics and public policy
• Interest groups try to change public opinion for them
  • Use public opinion against officials
  • Public officials could lose seat if they go against public

2. Where Does Public Opinion Come From

2.1 It Starts at Home

• Starts at home and local community during childhood
  • Values – core principles abt how political world should be
  • Influenced by childhood enviro
  • ex) balance rewards rather than giving according to performance → internalize and become values
• Values are foundation where specific political opinions are formed
  • Framework for decisions

2.2 Ideology and Partisanship

• Ideology – structured set of political attitudes that help person make sense of world
  • Ideological first principles – core ideas of how the world works
  • ex) higher taxes for more gov services bc gov solves problems
• Two main ideologies: Liberalism and Conservatism
• Liberalism:
  • Larger gov in variety of forms – more services, regulation, tax
  • Restrict individual choices for more fairness and equity
  • Progressive on social causes
  • Foreign policy – less aggressive for more agreements, diplomacy
• Conservatism:
  • Less gov services in regulation → less taxes
  • Freedom of choice even if it leads to inequality
  • Traditional, less progressive
  • Foreign policy – aggressive, military, no allies
• Partisanship – feelings of closeness to political party, identifying with party
  • Benefits of being a member: community, ppl to know/idolize, know who to root for
• Party identification:
  • Helps identify ppl who share same views
  • Useful guide in voting (less research needed)
• Independents’ party identification:
  • When pollster (person conducting survey) asks indep if they feel closer to one party, many say they do → leaners
  • Leaners – lean to one party tho they’re indep
• New evidence showing partisanship leads to ideological and policy preferences
  • Thought it would be other way around, but no

3. Measuring Public Opinion

• Using interviews – picking specific ppl who have a lot to share and having in-depth convo with them
  • What opinions and why
  • Limitations: time intensive = expensive, had to analyze results
  • Can’t do a lot of deep interviews necessary to get broad set of ppl matching country’s diversity
• Focus groups – small group discussion with moderator who asks questions and facilitates discussion to better understand ppl’s answers
  • Researchers can see how opinions play out in group dynamic
  • Other’s opinions might change other members’ minds
  • Method criticized for being subject to domination and unintentional manipulation by questioner or v vocal participants
• Leading technique for measuring public opinion → scientific polling
  • Questioning a lot of ppl
  • Usually questions are straightforward with a few multiple choice
  • Polls provide info to public officials abt what ppl think

3.2 How We Construct Polls

• Poll asks a sample – subset / portion of the population
  • Want to know large overall group aka population
• Sampling error – some level of uncertainty that exists in all polls
  • Sample could be diff from overall population bc of random chance too
  • Can’t completely say that estimation is representative of all population
• random sample of abt 1000 ppl gives good estimate for entire population 95% of time
  • Error = 3.16%
  • 1000 respondents bc big enough to decrease margin of error, also not too expensive
• Be careful of margin of error bc …
  • ex) if candidate is leading by small amt with margin 3%, they might not be leading
  • When comparing 2 things in same poll, margin of error is x2 large
  • Standard poll with error of 3%, error comparing 2 candidates is actually 6%

3.3 Importance of Random Sampling

• ex) Literary Digest poll bombed bc…
  • Polled rich subscribers who tend to favor Repub Landon over Dem FDR
• Non-response bias – if ppl who can’t be reached or refuse to participate differ systematically compared to those who do answer = results of poll are wrong
• Random digit dialing – computer randomly dials numbers in acres code until it reaches someone
  • Pollster asks respondents
  • Method to random samples
  • Use weighting methods to make sample match what electorate looks like
  • ex) if Black Americans 6% of poll but make up 12% of vote, upweight x2

3.4 Polls and Limitations

• Poll aggregation – combining and averaging results of lots of polls
  • Average of polls → good predictor of election results
  • Helps us make sense of polling on other topics where diff polls give diff results
  • Filter out bias of individual polling companies
• Limitations:
  • Wording can affect response
  • Visual design (online polls), order of questions → bias
• Non-response bias and bad weighting – inaccurate polls for recent elections
  • Trump supporters less likely to answer phone, Dems more likely → overestimate dems
  • Less accurate polls = les trust in polls = less ppl who answer polls

4. Influence of Politicians and the Media on Public Opinion

4.1 Politicians and Public Opinion

• Politicians try to change opinions of voters to get them to support particular position
  • So do interest groups, academics…
• Public not v good at making public policy
  • Instead of making policy, listen to political leaders and adopt that perspective

4.2 Media and Public Opinion

• Most Americans uninformed about politics
  • Media is major source of info
• Before internet: media = TV, radio, newspapers, magazines
  • Only 3 TV networks → tried to be neutral as possible to appeal to wider audience
• After internet and cable:
  • Specialized channels; catering to specific audiences got more profit
• Echo chamber – ppl only consume media that reflects their pov, no other side
  • Ppl share political news that align with them, ppl connect on social media tend ot have similar povs
• Media can influence public thru agenda setting and framing:
• Agenda setting – media tells ppl what issues are important
  • Sets agenda for what country thinks abt
  • No news coverage = ppl don’t know that there is an issue
  • Can focus or re-focus on issues
• Framing – context of issue

5. Protest Movements

• BLM movement – protest against racial injustices
• Public demonstrations show passion not demonstrated in other forms of political participation
  • Marches v likely to make local news, raise awareness
  • Protests show commitment, amt of ppl who support
• Peaceful demonstrations protected by First Amendment rights
  • Violent ones not = police can arrest on “public disorder”