13. Public Opinion

Public opinion – opinions held by priv persons which gov finds prudent to heed
  * What is “public” – collection of priv persons; ppl not in public capacity
    * National public opinion = mass public (group of ppl in society)
  * What “opinion” – view or position on a question
    * Public opinion = aggregation of individual opinions
    * On topics that affect gov/future

So ppl can critic gov and gov listens – 1st amendment
* Right to assembly = ppl voice opinion on politics and public policy
Interest groups try to change public opinion for them
* Use public opinion against officials
* Public officials could lose seat if they go against public

Starts at home and local community during childhood
  * Values – core principles abt how political world should be
    * Influenced by childhood enviro
  * ex) balance rewards rather than giving according to performance → internalize and become values
Values are foundation where specific political opinions are formed
* Framework for decisions

Ideology – structured set of political attitudes that help person make sense of world
* Ideological first principles – core ideas of how the world works
* ex) higher taxes for more gov services bc gov solves problems
Two main ideologies: Liberalism and Conservatism
Liberalism:
  * Larger gov in variety of forms – more services, regulation, tax
  * Restrict individual choices for more fairness and equity
  * Progressive on social causes
  * Foreign policy – less aggressive for more agreements, diplomacy
Conservatism:
  * Less gov services in regulation → less taxes
  * Freedom of choice even if it leads to inequality
  * Traditional, less progressive
  * Foreign policy – aggressive, military, no allies
Partisanship – feelings of closeness to political party, identifying with party
* Benefits of being a member: community, ppl to know/idolize, know who to root for
Party identification:
* Helps identify ppl who share same views
* Useful guide in voting (less research needed)
Independents’ party identification:
* When pollster (person conducting survey) asks indep if they feel closer to one party, many say they do → leaners
* Leaners – lean to one party tho they’re indep
New evidence showing partisanship leads to ideological and policy preferences
* Thought it would be other way around, but no

Using interviews – picking specific ppl who have a lot to share and having in-depth convo with them
  * What opinions and why
  * Limitations: time intensive = expensive, had to analyze results
  * Can’t do a lot of deep interviews necessary to get broad set of ppl matching country’s diversity
Focus groups – small group discussion with moderator who asks questions and facilitates discussion to better understand ppl’s answers
  * Researchers can see how opinions play out in group dynamic
    * Other’s opinions might change other members’ minds
  * Method criticized for being subject to domination and unintentional manipulation by questioner or v vocal participants
Leading technique for measuring public opinion → scientific polling
  * Questioning a lot of ppl
    * Usually questions are straightforward with a few multiple choice
  * Polls provide info to public officials abt what ppl think

Poll asks a sample – subset / portion of the population
* Want to know large overall group aka population
Sampling error – some level of uncertainty that exists in all polls
* Sample could be diff from overall population bc of random chance too
* Can’t completely say that estimation is representative of all population
random sample of abt 1000 ppl gives good estimate for entire population 95% of time
* Error = 3.16%
* 1000 respondents bc big enough to decrease margin of error, also not too expensive
Be careful of margin of error bc …
  * ex) if candidate is leading by small amt with margin 3%, they might not be leading
  * When comparing 2 things in same poll, margin of error is x2 large
    * Standard poll with error of 3%, error comparing 2 candidates is actually 6%

ex) Literary Digest poll bombed bc…
* Polled rich subscribers who tend to favor Repub Landon over Dem FDR
Non-response bias – if ppl who can’t be reached or refuse to participate differ systematically compared to those who do answer = results of poll are wrong
Random digit dialing – computer randomly dials numbers in acres code until it reaches someone
  * Pollster asks respondents
  * Method to random samples
  * Use weighting methods to make sample match what electorate looks like
    * ex) if Black Americans 6% of poll but make up 12% of vote, upweight x2

Poll aggregation – combining and averaging results of lots of polls
  * Average of polls → good predictor of election results
  * Helps us make sense of polling on other topics where diff polls give diff results
  * Filter out bias of individual polling companies
Limitations:
* Wording can affect response
* Visual design (online polls), order of questions → bias
Non-response bias and bad weighting – inaccurate polls for recent elections
* Trump supporters less likely to answer phone, Dems more likely → overestimate dems
* Less accurate polls = les trust in polls = less ppl who answer polls

Politicians try to change opinions of voters to get them to support particular position
* So do interest groups, academics…
Public not v good at making public policy
* Instead of making policy, listen to political leaders and adopt that perspective

Most Americans uninformed about politics
* Media is major source of info
Before internet: media = TV, radio, newspapers, magazines
* Only 3 TV networks → tried to be neutral as possible to appeal to wider audience
After internet and cable:
* Specialized channels; catering to specific audiences got more profit
Echo chamber – ppl only consume media that reflects their pov, no other side
* Ppl share political news that align with them, ppl connect on social media tend ot have similar povs
Media can influence public thru agenda setting and framing:
Agenda setting – media tells ppl what issues are important
  * Sets agenda for what country thinks abt
  * No news coverage = ppl don’t know that there is an issue
  * Can focus or re-focus on issues
Framing – context of issue

BLM movement – protest against racial injustices
Public demonstrations show passion not demonstrated in other forms of political participation
* Marches v likely to make local news, raise awareness
* Protests show commitment, amt of ppl who support
Peaceful demonstrations protected by First Amendment rights
* Violent ones not = police can arrest on “public disorder”