YI

13. Public Opinion

1. Public Opinion

  • Public opinion – opinions held by priv persons which gov finds prudent to heed
    • What is “public” – collection of priv persons; ppl not in public capacity
    • National public opinion = mass public (group of ppl in society)
    • What “opinion” – view or position on a question
    • Public opinion = aggregation of individual opinions
    • On topics that affect gov/future

1.1 Why Public Opinion Matters

  • So ppl can critic gov and gov listens – 1st amendment
    • Right to assembly = ppl voice opinion on politics and public policy
  • Interest groups try to change public opinion for them
    • Use public opinion against officials
    • Public officials could lose seat if they go against public

2. Where Does Public Opinion Come From

2.1 It Starts at Home

  • Starts at home and local community during childhood
    • Values – core principles abt how political world should be
    • Influenced by childhood enviro
    • ex) balance rewards rather than giving according to performance → internalize and become values
  • Values are foundation where specific political opinions are formed
    • Framework for decisions

2.2 Ideology and Partisanship

  • Ideology – structured set of political attitudes that help person make sense of world
    • Ideological first principles – core ideas of how the world works
    • ex) higher taxes for more gov services bc gov solves problems
  • Two main ideologies: Liberalism and Conservatism
  • Liberalism:
    • Larger gov in variety of forms – more services, regulation, tax
    • Restrict individual choices for more fairness and equity
    • Progressive on social causes
    • Foreign policy – less aggressive for more agreements, diplomacy
  • Conservatism:
    • Less gov services in regulation → less taxes
    • Freedom of choice even if it leads to inequality
    • Traditional, less progressive
    • Foreign policy – aggressive, military, no allies
  • Partisanship – feelings of closeness to political party, identifying with party
    • Benefits of being a member: community, ppl to know/idolize, know who to root for
  • Party identification:
    • Helps identify ppl who share same views
    • Useful guide in voting (less research needed)
  • Independents’ party identification:
    • When pollster (person conducting survey) asks indep if they feel closer to one party, many say they do → leaners
    • Leaners – lean to one party tho they’re indep
  • New evidence showing partisanship leads to ideological and policy preferences
    • Thought it would be other way around, but no

3. Measuring Public Opinion

  • Using interviews – picking specific ppl who have a lot to share and having in-depth convo with them
    • What opinions and why
    • Limitations: time intensive = expensive, had to analyze results
    • Can’t do a lot of deep interviews necessary to get broad set of ppl matching country’s diversity
  • Focus groups – small group discussion with moderator who asks questions and facilitates discussion to better understand ppl’s answers
    • Researchers can see how opinions play out in group dynamic
    • Other’s opinions might change other members’ minds
    • Method criticized for being subject to domination and unintentional manipulation by questioner or v vocal participants
  • Leading technique for measuring public opinion → scientific polling
    • Questioning a lot of ppl
    • Usually questions are straightforward with a few multiple choice
    • Polls provide info to public officials abt what ppl think

3.2 How We Construct Polls

  • Poll asks a sample – subset / portion of the population
    • Want to know large overall group aka population
  • Sampling error – some level of uncertainty that exists in all polls
    • Sample could be diff from overall population bc of random chance too
    • Can’t completely say that estimation is representative of all population
  • random sample of abt 1000 ppl gives good estimate for entire population 95% of time
    • Error = 3.16%
    • 1000 respondents bc big enough to decrease margin of error, also not too expensive
  • Be careful of margin of error bc …
    • ex) if candidate is leading by small amt with margin 3%, they might not be leading
    • When comparing 2 things in same poll, margin of error is x2 large
    • Standard poll with error of 3%, error comparing 2 candidates is actually 6%

3.3 Importance of Random Sampling

  • ex) Literary Digest poll bombed bc…
    • Polled rich subscribers who tend to favor Repub Landon over Dem FDR
  • Non-response bias – if ppl who can’t be reached or refuse to participate differ systematically compared to those who do answer = results of poll are wrong
  • Random digit dialing – computer randomly dials numbers in acres code until it reaches someone
    • Pollster asks respondents
    • Method to random samples
    • Use weighting methods to make sample match what electorate looks like
    • ex) if Black Americans 6% of poll but make up 12% of vote, upweight x2

3.4 Polls and Limitations

  • Poll aggregation – combining and averaging results of lots of polls
    • Average of polls → good predictor of election results
    • Helps us make sense of polling on other topics where diff polls give diff results
    • Filter out bias of individual polling companies
  • Limitations:
    • Wording can affect response
    • Visual design (online polls), order of questions → bias
  • Non-response bias and bad weighting – inaccurate polls for recent elections
    • Trump supporters less likely to answer phone, Dems more likely → overestimate dems
    • Less accurate polls = les trust in polls = less ppl who answer polls

4. Influence of Politicians and the Media on Public Opinion

4.1 Politicians and Public Opinion

  • Politicians try to change opinions of voters to get them to support particular position
    • So do interest groups, academics…
  • Public not v good at making public policy
    • Instead of making policy, listen to political leaders and adopt that perspective

4.2 Media and Public Opinion

  • Most Americans uninformed about politics
    • Media is major source of info
  • Before internet: media = TV, radio, newspapers, magazines
    • Only 3 TV networks → tried to be neutral as possible to appeal to wider audience
  • After internet and cable:
    • Specialized channels; catering to specific audiences got more profit
  • Echo chamber – ppl only consume media that reflects their pov, no other side
    • Ppl share political news that align with them, ppl connect on social media tend ot have similar povs
  • Media can influence public thru agenda setting and framing:
  • Agenda setting – media tells ppl what issues are important
    • Sets agenda for what country thinks abt
    • No news coverage = ppl don’t know that there is an issue
    • Can focus or re-focus on issues
  • Framing – context of issue

5. Protest Movements

  • BLM movement – protest against racial injustices
  • Public demonstrations show passion not demonstrated in other forms of political participation
    • Marches v likely to make local news, raise awareness
    • Protests show commitment, amt of ppl who support
  • Peaceful demonstrations protected by First Amendment rights
    • Violent ones not = police can arrest on “public disorder”