Leadership and Decision Making in Complexity: National and Comprehensive Study Guide

Leadership Definitions and the Moral Responsibility of Leaders

• The Primary Function of Leadership: Leadership is defined as the act of making good things happen that, on their own, would not occur.
  • The speaker posits that if a favorable outcome is guaranteed to happen without intervention, the leader's most responsible action is to step aside, as their presence may simply slow the process down.
  • The Component of "Good": Leaders have a moral responsibility. While different individuals may have varying definitions of "good," a leader must be able to explain the specific benefit or "good" they are attempting to achieve.
• Leaders as "Dealers of Hope": A fundamental role of a leader is to provide hope and optimism to their people. In a government context, this hope may not always be for the current generation's lives but is often expressed through what is done for their children to ensure a future.
• The Requirement of Willing Followers: Citing Peter Drucker, the speaker notes that a leader is only someone who has willing followers.
  • Leadership is not just about moving forward; it is about looking back to ensure others are following.
  • To be a follower-worthy leader, one must identify the traits they admire in others and embody those qualities, such as empathy and guidance, to provide value to the lives of those they serve.

The Pillars of Leadership: Think People, Think Future, Think Excellence

• The Four-Word Formulation: The speaker summarizes their entire philosophy of leadership in four words across three phases: "Think people, think future, think excellence."

Think People: Harnessing Creativity

• Objective: The goal is to harness the creativity of your people and obtain their best possible contributions.
• Risk of Failure: Failing to engage people effectively results in the waste of talent and potential.
• Lao Tzu’s Hierarchy of Leadership:
  • The Best Leader: The people do not notice their existence. When the work is done, the people say, "We did it ourselves."
  • The Second Best: The people honor and praise.
  • The Third Best: The people fear.
  • The Fourth Best: The people hate.
• The Best Leader Strategy: By raising people to handle day-to-day tasks autonomously, the leader frees up their own time to fulfill their special responsibility: thinking about the future.
• The Core Question: A leader should constantly ask: "How can I help you do your job better?"
  • Helping the Boss: Assisting your boss makes them more willing to forgive mistakes and builds trust.
  • Helping Colleagues: Government is a complex machinery that requires cooperation to avoid position undermining.
  • Helping the People: This is the ultimate goal for public servants.

Think Future: Anticipation and Survival

• Objective: Positioning an organization so it is prepared when crises hit, even when the nature of the future is unknown.
• Warren Buffett Quote: "When the tide goes up, you discover who had been swimming naked." Many leaders fail at this specific responsibility, which cannot be delegated.
• The Three Fatal Failures of Organizations:
  1. Failure to Learn from the Past: Not learning from one's own mistakes or, more efficiently, the mistakes of others.
  2. Failure to Adapt to the Present: Policies and processes must change as public expectations, technology, and staff capabilities evolve.
  3. Failure to Anticipate the Future: This accounts for an estimated $80\%$ of all organizational failures.

Think Excellence: Maximizing Potential

• Objective: Driving effectiveness by drawing the best out of individuals and the organization as a whole.
• Three Aspects of Excellence:
  1. Best Effort for Everyone: Organizing work to ensure maximum effort from each individual.
  2. Best Capacity in Everyone: Helping people develop so their capacity matches their potential.
  3. Best Synergies in Everyone: Focusing on the organizational level to ensure everyone works together for the best collective outcome.

Decision Making in Complexity: Dynamics and Characteristics

• The "Equidistant" Game Exercise: An exercise where six volunteers must move to remain the same distance (equidistant) from two people they chose privately. This illustrates several complex system dynamics:
  • Nonlinearity: Minor actions (one person taking a small step) can trigger major, disproportionate consequences for the entire system.
  • Interconnectedness: Decisions in one area ripple across the entire system; everyone is connected.
  • Emergence: System-level behaviors and solutions arise from the interaction of individual elements rather than a top-down command.
  • Self-organization: The system adapts and reorganizes in response to changing conditions.
  • Uncertainty: Predicting outcomes is inherently difficult due to incomplete information and dynamic interactions.
• Defining the Complexity World (VUCA and BANI):
  • VUCA: Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous.
  • BANI: Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible.
  • Technology Drivers (ABCDQ):
    • A: Artificial Intelligence.
    • B: Blockchain.
    • C: Cybersecurity.
    • D: Distributed Processing.
    • Q: Quantum Computing (predicted to be the major topic in $3$ years).
  • Strategic Approach to AI: China’s $15^{\text{th}}$ five-year plan reportedly does not list AI as a strategic goal because it is viewed as a universal tool to be applied everywhere, rather than an end objective.

Strategies for Complex Environments

• Compass vs. Map: In unknown territory where no one has gone before, a map is useless. A leader needs a compass to maintain a consistency of direction.
• The Requirement for Clarity:
  • Be clear about what the problem is and what critical outcome is sought.
  • Complex situations benefit from having fewer goals.
• Adaptive Capabilities:
  • Awareness: Recognizing that things are changing.
  • Alertness: Spotting critical movements.
  • Agility: Having the speed to respond.
• Scenario Planning:
  • A tool to describe multiple possible futures using "Driving Forces."
  • Predetermined Elements: Factors that are known, such as demographics (e.g., the number of $18$-year-old males in $10$ years for national service, or the fact that Singapore had for the first time less than $30,000$ babies last year).
  • Critical Uncertainties: Factors that might go in several directions (e.g., the US-China relationship of cooperation vs. contestation).
  • Scenarios help convert "Known Unknowns" into situations where a leader can develop "SOPs" for each potential future. The value is not in predicting the future exactly, but in the practice of thinking through reactions.
• Feedback Loops: Rapid loops (e.g., OODA/OC-ECA style) are necessary. However, the plan (OC - Own Course of Action) must be flexible; once a situation begins, leaders must respond to actual conditions on the ground.

Case Study: SQ 117 Hijack (1991)

• Event Details: A group of Pakistani hijackers landed a Singapore Airlines flight at $06:45$.
• Reduction to a Single Goal: The complexity was managed by focusing on one overriding goal: "Save the lives of the crew and passengers."
• Management Support: Success was attributed to having a boss (the Prime Minister) who trusted the executive group to decide on the spot without constant micromanagement.
• Importance of Preparation: The team met for exercises at least once a year, ensuring everyone was familiar with procedures and with each other.
• Historical Context: This capability was developed after Singapore's first hijack (a ferry boat serving a Shell refinery), which revealed a lack of preparation. This led to the formation of the "Executive Group" (inter-ministerial: MOD, MHA, MOH, MFA) and the development of specialized military operational capabilities.

Case Study: COVID-19 Pandemic

• The Trap of Previous Knowledge: Singapore initially treated COVID-19 like SARS (both are coronaviruses). However, a critical difference was learned: COVID-19 is infectious before symptoms appear, whereas SARS patients were only infectious after symptoms appeared. This realization changed the entire strategy to masking and social distancing.
• Systemic Shifts: The crisis rapidly evolved from a health problem to an economic, social, and finally, a security problem.
• Self-Preservation and Supply Chains:
  • The pandemic highlighted that in a crisis, even allies seek self-preservation.
  • Taiwan banned the export of medical devices, including face masks produced by Singapore Technologies lines in Taiwan.
  • Singaport’s solution was to dismantle the entire factory and ship it to Singapore to maintain production.
• Strategic Lessons: Resulted in a heightened focus on food security and the need for local management to make operational decisions when travel is restricted.

The Kneeschen (Cynefin) Framework for Sense-Making

• Known World (Bottom Right): Cause and effect are repeatable and predictable. This is the world of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).
• Knowable World (Top Right): Cause and effect are separated over time and space. This is the world of Scenario Planning. It deals with Known Unknowns (knowing what you don't know).
• Complex World (Top Left): Cause and effect are only coherent in retrospect. They do not repeat, and you can only join the dots looking backward. This is the world of Unknown Unknowns.
  • The strategy here is to build a Winning Culture and apply adaptive strategies.
  • You cannot use scenarios for things you've never seen and cannot imagine.
• Chaos (Bottom Left): No perceivable relation between cause and effect. The strategy is to act immediately to "stop the bleeding" before trying to understand or categorize the situation.

Culture, Trust, and Survivability

• Lagging vs. Leading Indicators:
  • Lagging Indicator: Financial results (or GDP/Unemployment in government) tell you what you just did. They do not predict the future.
  • Leading Indicator: Culture predicts the future. If the culture is right, survival and success follow.
• Culture as an Iceberg: Behaviors are the visible tip. Underneath are the values and the beliefs of what is necessary for success.
• The Three Areas of Trust:
  1. Good Heart (Cares): The people believe the leader cares about them.
  2. Good Head (Knows): The people are convinced the leader knows what to do.
  3. Good Hands (Does): The leader does what they say and has the capability for action.
• Crucial Rule of Trust: Strength in one area cannot compensate for a lack in another. If people don't believe you care (Heart), being smart (Head) will not earn their trust.
• Empathy in Trust: Real trust requires putting yourself in the other person's shoes and dealing with their reality, not just your own perspective.

Data and Statistics Captured from Segment

• Super Aged Population Projections (Singapore 2030): $25\%$ to $30\%$ of the population will be over $65$ years old.
• COVID-19 Death Data (per million people):
  • China: $85$
  • Singapore: $305$
  • United States: $3,300$
• Social Unity/Division during COVID-19 Outbreak:
  • US: $81\%$ feel the country is more divided.
  • Singapore: $75\%$ feel the country is more united.
• Vaccine Importance Survey:
  • Singapore: $72\%$ say getting a vaccine is very important.
  • US: $44\%$ say getting a vaccine is very important; $7\%$ say it is not important at all.