Reimagining Australia's Regional Security for the Indo-Pacific Century
The Emergence of the Indo-Pacific Concept
Time Frame: The Indo-Pacific concept emerged as the defining theme for Australian foreign and security policy between 2016 and 2020.
Shift in Geopolitical Vocabulary: Displaced the term 'Asia Pacific', widely adopted by policymakers, strategic analysts, and scholars to express the view that this region is 'the engine of global growth' (DFAT, 2018).
Economic Institutions: Increase in economic initiatives such as:
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)
Superpower Rivalry: The Indo-Pacific also became an arena for superpower rivalry:
2020 Australian Strategic Defence Update stated: "The Indo-Pacific is at the centre of greater strategic competition."
Concerns encompassed both military-security and geo-economic fronts.
Strategy Adjustment: Security and Economy Nexus
Traditional Emphasis on prosperity in regional engagement was tempered by security concerns.
Learning Curve for Australia: By 2020, Australia grasped that their alignment with the U.S. on security antagonized China, its primary trading partner.
Compartmentalization Fallacy Exposed: The notion that trade and security could be compartmentalized was revealed as a fallacy.
The Indo-Pacific Concept as a Dominant Regional Frame
Historical Context: Term 'Indo-Pacific' had been part of Australian strategic debates since the mid-1960s, reemerging in the mid-2000s (Medcalf, 2020).
Shift from Asia Pacific: From 2016 onward, the Indo-Pacific concept replaced the Asia Pacific as the key geographic construct of Australian Defence policy (Dobell, 2016).
Gradual shift from the Asia Pacific narrative to Indo-Pacific took shape in the early 2000s.
Political Leaders' Adoption: Key political figures supported this shift:
Malcolm Turnbull emphasized a secure, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.
Scott Morrison identified Australia as an 'Indo-Pacific nation', promoting the idea of an Indo-Pacific identity.
Policy Documentation: Terms proliferated in key documents: Defence White Paper (2016), Foreign Policy White Paper (2017), Defence Strategic Update (2020).
Geopolitical Purpose: The redefined geographic region now included areas from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, intimately linked with Southeast Asia, India, North Asia, and the U.S. (DFAT, 2017).
Strategic System: The Indo-Pacific transformed into a 'single strategic system' where various geopolitical aims were advanced:
Enhancing India's influence while diluting that of China.
Engaging more middle powers.
Keeping the U.S. involved and highlighting the region's maritime focus.
Positioning Australia centrally in the Indo-Pacific construct.
Australia's Indo-Pacific Strategy Components
Strategic Ambiguity: Australia maintained a degree of uncertainty in its Indo-Pacific strategy compared to the U.S.
Main Pillars of Policy: The strategy sought to uphold:
Rules-Based Order (RBO)
US Alliance
Deepening Regional Engagement
Middle Power Strategy: Australia’s approach served as a reflection of influence allied with major powers adopting their versions of the Indo-Pacific concept.
Major Regional Powers' Relations
The United States
Initial Turmoil: Poor relations at the beginning of the review period marked by, for example, tensions during Trump's presidency.
Trump's administration faced criticism for diminishing U.S. global governance commitments and questioning security guarantees.
Resurgence of Indo-Pacific Concept: By 2017, the U.S. began embracing the Indo-Pacific paradigm, evident in strategic documents like the National Security Strategy and National Defence Strategy.
The renaming of Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command symbolized this shift.
Collaboration on Regional Interests: The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy’s focus on security, economics, and governance aligned well with Australia’s strategic objectives.
Military and Economic Cooperation: Australia's increase in defence spending, along with a campaign to demonstrate loyalty to the U.S., reinforced alliances despite challenges.
FOIP Principles: Principles included:
Respect for sovereignty
Peaceful dispute resolution
Free trade
Adherence to international rules and norms.
Outcome: Despite ups and downs, the balance of alliance relations stabilized towards the conclusion of the period.
Japan
Special Strategic Partnership: The partnership gained importance with shared strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Japan historically supported the Indo-Pacific concept since Abe’s vision in 2007.
Initiatives and Frameworks: Joint commitments included military exercises and economic projects reflecting shared security interests.
Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation and Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept aligned their objectives against China’s assertiveness.
Economic Cooperation: Coordination in economic security with a mission statement in 2020 reiterated their opposition to China's actions that undermine international norms.
India
Strengthening Bilateral Relations: Australia positioned India as a natural partner within the Indo-Pacific framework, leading to enhanced strategic partnerships:
Establishing annual '2+2' meetings and upgrading the relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
Military Cooperation: Joint exercises and negotiations signified deepened defense ties and strategic dialogues focusing on shared maritime security.
China
Strained Relations: China's assertive regional actions and the emphasis on Indo-Pacific strategies led to deteriorated bilateral relations.
Public perception in Australia regarding China dropped significantly (81% unfavorable perceptions) by 2020.
Economic Interest vs. Security Concerns: Tensions manifested through trade disputes, including Australia's calls for an inquiry into COVID-19 origins.
Ideological Disconnect: China's perspective on regionalism conflicted with Australia's adoption of the Indo-Pacific concept, interpreting it as anti-China.
South-East Asia and the South Pacific
Southeast Asia’s Strategic Role: The region is critical for Australian security but showed skepticism about the Indo-Pacific concept, preferring 'Asia-Pacific'.
Australia's Engagement: Efforts to ingratiate ASEAN-led initiatives into the Indo-Pacific strategy led to measures like hosting summits and military diplomacy efforts.
South Pacific Initiatives: Increasing emphasis on the Pacific Step-up as a response to Chinese influence showcased Australia's intent to maintain its sphere of influence diplomatically and economically.
Initiatives included increased infrastructure financing and establishing dedicated offices for Pacific cooperation.
Conclusion: More Concept than Strategy?
Conceptual Implementation: The Indo-Pacific concept is prioritizing security over economic discussions in Australia's strategic discourse.
Response to China's Rise: Presenting a united front among allies against China’s assertiveness characterized the Indo-Pacific strategy, highlighting the security/economic dichotomy that plagued Australian policy decisions during the period.