Notes on Drought in the Canadian Prairies

Experts predict inevitable, multi-year drought in the Canadian Prairies.
The drought will be intense, hot, dry, and dusty, unlike anything seen in generations.
Signs of this water crisis are already apparent, potentially already started.

Dixon Hammond, a beef farmer near Pincher Creek, Alberta, experienced a life-altering drought in 2001.
In 2001, the creek providing water to his farm completely dried up for a full year, an unprecedented event for him and his father.
This led to a significant drop in production and personal hardship.
The farm, which had sustained four generations and neighboring farms, suffered greatly with the two years of record drought.
Hammond now works a day job at a feedlot to sustain the farm, balancing this with farm chores at night.
The drought highlighted the critical importance of water: "If you don't have water, you don't have anything."

David Sachin, a prairie climate expert, studies tree rings to understand past climate patterns and droughts.
Tree ring analysis reveals super droughts in the past, lasting 8-12 years, longer than any drought since European settlement.
Tree rings indicate wet and dry years; wide rings signify wet years, narrow rings signify dry years.
The years 2001 and 2002 were among the driest since settlement, as reflected in narrow tree rings.
The 1930s drought is also evident in tree ring data, along with dry years in the 1920s.
The 20th century was unusually wet, skewing perceptions of the prairie climate.
A severe drought in the 1850s led Captain John Palliser to advise the government that the region would be "forever comparatively useless."

Long dry cycles are likely to return, even without global warming.
Global warming increases the probability and severity of droughts.
The longest drought recorded in tree rings lasted about 20 years.
Dixon Hammond believes global warming is inevitable and wants to ensure his children can continue ranching.

The prairies are vulnerable to drought due to their location in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains.
Heat evaporates moisture, leading to a net loss of water.
Global warming is predicted to exacerbate this, further draining water resources.

Glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, vital water sources for prairie rivers, are shrinking rapidly.
The Peyto Glacier, the most studied in Canada, has lost three kilometers of ice since it was first monitored, a third of its former size.
Many glaciers have vanished completely since the 1970s.
Less snowfall reduces protection and nourishment for glaciers, accelerating their decline.
Glacier meltwater recharges groundwater and river systems, but as glaciers shrink, this water supply is reduced.
Rising global temperatures, increased by $1$ degree Celsius since 1880, have accelerated the melting of glaciers.
Temperatures in Canada are predicted to rise by $5$ to $10$ degrees Celsius this century due to global warming.
Increased greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, further warming the planet.

Water ecologist David Schindler has found that water flow in major Western rivers has decreased significantly, by $30$ to $85$ % compared to a century ago.
Water scarcity necessitates conservation efforts to mitigate climate-driven water loss.

Most of the population on the Prairies lives in the south, while most of the water is located further north, making it inaccessible and expensive to utilize.
Irrigation has transformed dry regions, but it also strains water resources.
Prairie rivers are dammed and diverted for cities and farmland, reducing downstream water flow.
A major drought could lead to severe water scarcity and difficult decisions about water allocation.
Farmers may need to prioritize which crops to irrigate, and cities may struggle to provide water for their populations and industries.
The Alberta government halted new irrigation projects after the 2001 drought and shifted to a more sustainable approach.
Irrigators have improved their efficiency, using a third less water per acre compared to fifteen years ago.

Climate specialist David Sochin notes that dry areas are expanding across the Prairies.
He warns that mismanagement of water resources could lead to desertification, similar to historical examples like the "Garden of Eden" in Iraq and Iran.

Rancher Dixon Hammond is working with his neighbors and government hydrologists to restore Beaver Creek.
They rebuilt the creek's banks and moved cattle away to promote vegetation growth and water retention.
The goal is to protect the creek from evaporation during hot, dry years and ensure its long-term survival.