Unit 8: The International Politics of the Environment

Climate Crisis

Quote from Antoine de Saint Exupéry (Citadelle, 1948): "Pour ce qui est de l’avenir, il ne s’agit pas de le prévoir, mais de le rendre possible."
- Translation: "With regard to the future, it is not a matter of predicting it, but of making it possible."

The Climate Crisis and You

Processing information about the catastrophic consequences of global warming can be challenging.
The UN’s goal: To limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
In 2024, global warming reached 1.44°C, raising concerns about the feasibility of limiting it to 2°C.
Fossil fuel emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) continued to rise, reaching a record high in 2025, primarily due to natural gas and coal.
UN Secretary-General's statement at COP 27: "We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator." (Before El Nino's effects were felt)

Global Warming and You

Despite constant warnings, CO2 emissions keep rising; life goes on as if everything is normal.
Questions posed for reflection:
  - Why are individuals seemingly indifferent to climate change?
  - Why was there a significant backlash against recent climate-related vandalism (e.g., Van Gogh vandalism)?
  - Some scholars suggest a phenomenon of "fetishistic disavowal" towards the environment.
A link to a potentially persuasive argument (video).

The Basics of Global Warming

Human activity has led to increased levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which trap heat in the atmosphere.
- Carbon dioxide (CO2) comprises approximately 50% of GHGs.
Atmosphere CO2 levels: Average in June 2025 was 430 ppm.
- Scientific consensus indicates that 350 ppm is the safe threshold for CO2 levels in the atmosphere (Source: NOAA).

CO2 Levels Over 800,000 Years

Graph detailing historical CO2 levels highlights that:
  - 2022 average was 417.1 ppm.
  - Previous highest levels were approximately 300 ppm.
  - Data sourced from ice cores spans 800,000 years.

Carbon Dioxide Annual Increase

Annual global increase of CO2 graph shows:
- Increase rates fluctuating from 1950s onward.
- Rise quantified in parts per million (ppm) recorded each decade.

Global Warming as a Political Issue

Two paradigms regarding global warming:
- Conservation: Reducing human impact on natural environments (e.g., cutting CO2 emissions).
- Geoengineering: Technological strategies to mitigate environmental degradation (e.g., chemical injections into the atmosphere).
Geoengineering does not bypass geopolitical issues; efficacy and impacts depend on global political dynamics.
- Example: Use of stratospheric aerosols could lead to unequal effects (e.g., drought in certain areas), potentially escalating international conflicts.
Tech for carbon mitigation must also consider resource access disparities.
- Example: Lithium's essential role in low-carbon technologies with uneven global distribution may lead to power shifts and conflicts.

Social, Political, and Economic Consequences of Global Warming

Forecast of 1.2 billion climate refugees due to climate change effects (desertification, rising sea levels) by 2050.
- Difficulties posed by managing these movements in a globally anarchical system.
Increased scarcity of food and resources (e.g., water) predicted:
  - Cereals estimated to cost 29% more by 2050; 188 million more individuals at risk of hunger.
  - Fertilizers (using petroleum) contributing to food production's carbon footprint creates further instability.
  - Example: 2011 Arab Spring linked to rising bread prices from the 2010-2011 food crisis.
Although climate change has not directly caused armed conflicts, it exacerbates existing social, political, and economic tensions (resource scarcity).
- Influence estimated to be between 3% and 20% of all conflicts in the past century, likely increasing in the future.
- Notably, the US military is a significant emitter; its emissions would place it as the 55th largest emitter if considered as a separate country.

Global Warming and International Politics

Challenges in attaining a unified global agreement due to the diverse interests of 193 sovereign states.
Key divide in climate negotiations: Developed (North) vs. Developing (South) states.
- Rapid economic growth in developing nations results in high emissions as most polluting industries are located in the South, while developed nations heavily consume the output.

The North/South Divide on Emission Cuts

Developing nations argue against reducing emissions without compensation since developed nations did not face such restrictions during their development.
- Kyoto Protocol did not mandate emission reductions for developing nations (Annex 1 vs. Annex 2 countries).
- The Paris Agreement stipulates developed countries must take the lead while developing countries should work towards emissions reductions progressively.

Global Emissions Overview

Total global CO2 emissions data divided by region provides a clear picture:
- 2021 total emissions around 40 billion t.
- Graph includes emissions from fossil fuels and industries.

Per Capita Polluters

Annual and per capita greenhouse gas emissions of selected countries (2023):
  - Russia: 19.0 t CO₂e/capita, total 2,660 Mt CO₂e
  - U.S.: 18.0 t CO₂e/capita, total 5,970 Mt CO₂e
  - China: 11.0 t CO₂e/capita, total 16,000 Mt CO₂e
  - G20 average: 8.3 t CO₂e/capita
  - EU (27 countries): 7.3 t CO₂e/capita, total 3,230 Mt CO₂e
  - India: 2.9 t CO₂e/capita, total 4,410 Mt CO₂e

Financial Assistance for Emission Reductions

Income/technology gap highlighted in the North/South divide:
  - The Paris Agreement calls for developed nations to financially support developing ones in emission reduction efforts.
  - Funds like the Global Environment Facility (GEF) were created with a goal of raising $100 billion annually by 2020; however, this target remains unmet.
  - The COVID-19 pandemic has complicated these funding efforts.

Historical Agreements and Conferences

Awareness of global warming dating back to the 1970s; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established in 1992 at Rio.
Kyoto Protocol (1997) set concrete metrics for emission reductions; most Annex 1 countries (European Union, Canada) agreed to cut emissions by 2012.

The Paris Agreement

Established a fundamental framework for negotiating climate action post-UNFCCC:
- Aim for zero net greenhouse gases by 2050; limit temperature rise to “well below 2°C”
- The IPCC 2018 report revealed existing targets were insufficient, advocating for well below 1.5°C.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

NDCs are emission reduction targets for each country but are not legally binding.
- Procedural commitments include submitting NDCs every 5 years and reporting measures taken to meet these targets.

Compliance and Review Mechanisms

Failure to meet procedural commitments incurs a review by the Implementation and Compliance Committee, which is non-punitive.

Projected Temperature Outcomes Based on Actions

By 2030, current NDCs would only limit temperature increases to about 2.2°C.
- Significant reductions of 30% necessary for 2°C target, 55% for 1.5°C.

Impact of US Policy Changes on Global Efforts

Following Trump's accession to office in 2025, a focus on fossil fuel extraction has cast uncertainty on the future effectiveness of global climate agreements.
- Increased emissions during previous COP meetings in oil-centric authoritarian nations led to doubts about the efficacy of the UNFCCC.

Canada's Commitments

Target of 36-44% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, adjusting it to 40-49% by 2035.
- Current actions projected to yield only a 17-18% reduction by 2035.
- Recent budget decisions have also shelved a proposed emissions cap on fossil fuel producers.