24 - Conclusions [1989-1991] - The End of the Cold War and the Collapse of the Soviet Union

Origins of the Bush-Gorbachev Summits

• Timeline of Decisions: After six months in office, President George Bush decided it was time for a summit with Mikhail Gorbachev. His reasoning was: "I want to meet Gorbachev, and I want to do it soon."
• Internal Administration Conflict: Despite Bush's eagerness, there was internal wariness within the administration regarding the reality of the changes in the Soviet Union. Experts and officials questioned what Gorbachev's "heartbeat" and "pulse" really were.
• Policy Deliberation: The administration spent significant time deciding whether to continue the policies of President Reagan (under whom Bush served as Vice President) or to initiate a new direction.

The Malta Summit (December $1989$)

• Purpose and Venue: The goal of the meeting was to end the Cold War. Gorbachev was simultaneously facing severe domestic crises, leading to questions about whether the Soviet Union would survive. The venue was settled on board a ship in the Mediterranean at Malta.
• Rationale for Malta: Officials chose Malta because it was considered a "nice peaceful harbor" where the weather was expected to be calm to avoid seasickness.
• The Mediterranean Storm: Contrary to expectations, a massive storm developed. A weather satellite tracking station on the ship tracked the storm moving from Gibraltar directly over Malta. The weather was so severe that participants became seasick, and the Americans were temporarily unable to return to their ship from the Russian vessel.
• Dramatically Changed Context: Between Bush's first overture in August $1989$ and the meeting in December $1989$, the geopolitical landscape shifted:
  • The Berlin Wall had fallen.
  • Poland and Hungary were no longer communist countries.
• The Discussion and Agenda: The Americans surprised the Soviets by coming forward with a pre-prepared agenda and vision immediately after initial pleasantries. Gorbachev noted that the discussion moved to a "new level" where both leaders found they shared similar views.
• The Status of the United States in Europe: A pivotal moment occurred when President Bush mentioned that America's allies wanted the US to remain in Europe. Gorbachev responded: "We want the United States to stay in Europe too. The United States is a European power."
  • Significance: This was an extraordinary statement because a principal goal of Soviet power throughout the Cold War had been to remove the United States from Europe.
• Outcome: Malta was the first time the two powers explicitly stated they no longer considered each other enemies. History records this as the moment when "sentence was passed on the Cold War."

The Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia

• Formation of Opposition: On November $19$, $1989$, an opposition group called Civic Forum was formed, including playwright Vaclav Havel.
• Underground Meetings: They operated out of the Magic Lantern Theater underground. Participants noted that the regime was "pregnant with problems" and its collapse was inevitable.
• Metaphor of the Snowball: In such a volatile environment, it was remarked that "a snowball can start an avalanche."
• Protest Tactics: Protesters displayed persistence and humor, notably jangling keys to signals to the government that "your time is up."
• Non-violence and Tolerance: The movement was defined by an atmosphere of tolerance where people of disparate views worked together under a common threat.
• Political Shift: Alexander Dubcek, the leader deposed during the $1968$ Prague Spring, appeared alongside the protesters, signaling the regime was giving up. Vaclav Havel was eventually elected president. The transition became known as the Velvet Revolution because no blood was spilt.

The Romanian Revolution and the Fall of Ceausescu

• Violence in Timisoara: In mid-December $1989$, security forces killed $73$ men and women during riots against the regime of Nicolae Ceausescu.
• The Pro-Government Rally (December $21$, $1989$): The government staged a rally in Bucharest to show support for Ceausescu. Instead of cheering, the crowd began to jeer him. State television cut the broadcast, but fighting broke out throughout the night.
• The Escape: The next day, crowds stormed the Central Committee building. Ceausescu and his wife escaped by helicopter, with an aide holding a gun to the pilot's head.
• Capture and Execution: The couple was captured just $45$ miles from Bucharest. In the ensuing chaos between different factions, nearly $1,000$ people were killed. The Ceausescus were tried by court-martial and executed. Although the actual execution was faked for television, the corpses were real.
• Philosophical Reflection: A witness remarked that while they were humanists and poets, they felt Ceausescu had to die for the people to live: "If he hadn't died, then we would have died."

Internal Collapse of the Soviet Union

• The 15 Republics: Gorbachev faced the challenge of granting freedom to satellite states while trying to keep the $15$ republics of the Soviet Union together. Most republics were demanding independence.
• Economic Crisis: The Soviet Communist Party was losing control as goods became scarce. Citizens judged the state of the country by market availability.
  • Numerical Detail: People had to use coupons just to buy socks, and often there were no socks available. Shelves contained only out-of-date tins of fish.
• Modernization and Cultural Shifts: While Gorbachev resisted full market transition, Moscow saw the opening of its first McDonald's. The younger generation sought pop music, fashion, money, and travel, which the Party could not provide.
• Glasnost and Pluralism: For the first time, citizens were given the freedom to demonstrate. Gorbachev eventually chose pluralism, ending the Communist Party's monopoly on power—a break from the legacies of Lenin and Stalin.

National Independence Movements and Boris Yeltsin

• Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (annexed by Stalin in $1940$) demanded total independence. In January $1990$, Gorbachev visited Vilnius, Lithuania, to argue against the breakup of the union, but it was described as trying to "dam a river that was in full flood."
• Boris Yeltsin's Rise: Yeltsin, the former Communist Party chief in Moscow, leveraged economic discontent to weaken Gorbachev. In May $1990$, he was chosen as the parliamentary leader of the Russian Republic (the largest of the $15$ republics).
• Yeltsin's Strategy: Unlike Gorbachev, Yeltsin recognized the breakup of the USSR was inevitable and urged other republics to declare sovereignty alongside Russia.

German Unification and NATO

• The Question of Alliances: A major point of contention was whether a united Germany would belong to NATO. This was sensitive for Soviet society, which had lost $20,000,000$ to $30,000,000$ people during World War II with fascist Germany.
• The Agreement: West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl negotiated with Gorbachev, promising:
  • To limit Germany's military strength.
  • To pay the Red Army's resettlement costs.
  • Not to station nuclear weapons in East Germany.
• "V-E Day 2": The agreement allowing a united Germany in NATO was described by Kohl as "V-E Day 2," signaling the true end of the Cold War.

Conflicts and Resignations ($1990$-$1991$)

• Iraq Invasion of Kuwait (August $2$, $1990$): Despite Iraq being a Soviet ally, Secretary of State Baker and Foreign Minister Shevardnadze issued a joint condemnation. This move was used against Shevardnadze by Soviet hardliners.
• The Turn to Hardliners: In December $1990$, Eduard Shevardnadze resigned, warning of a looming hardline coup. Gorbachev tightened security and appointed hardliners like Gennady Yanayev as his deputy.
• The Vilnius Crackdown (January $1991$): Soviet tanks attacked Lithuanians defending their parliament and radio stations.
  • Human Detail: A victim named Loretta described tank treads pressing on her legs as she shouted for her mother. $14$ people were killed.

The August $1991$ Coup

• The Dissidents: Hardline communists (Pugo, Yazov, Yanayev, Kruchkov) were appalled by Gorbachev's New Union Treaty, which would loosen central control.
• The Plot: On August $18$, they visited Gorbachev in the Crimea, demanding he declare a state of emergency. He refused and was placed under house arrest.
• Resistance: On August $19$, tanks entered Moscow. Boris Yeltsin took a stand at the Russian Parliament building ("The White House"). The coup failed because soldiers refused to fire on the crowds, and the plotters appeared nervous and indecisive on television.
• The Death of Three: During the standoff, three young men were killed as armored vehicles moved through the crowds.
• Collapse of the Coup: At $3:00$ AM on August $21$, Kruchkov admitted defeat to Yeltsin. Gorbachev was flown back to Moscow on August $22$.

The Dissolution of the USSR

• Minsk Agreement (December $8$, $1991$): The leaders of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine met to dissolve the Soviet Union and establish the Commonwealth of Independent States.
• The Final Insult: The leaders informed President George Bush of the dissolution before informing Gorbachev, their own president. Gorbachev's associates called this "shameful" and "absolutely contemptible."
• Resignation: Humiliated and isolated, Gorbachev resigned as General Secretary and later as President. The red flag of the Soviet Union was lowered for the last time on Christmas $1991$.

Legacy and Costs of the Cold War

• Nuclear Deterrence: Both sides recognized that nuclear deterrence kept the peace by preventing a "nuclear apocalypse."
• Historical Revisionism: Some participants believe the Cold War could have been avoided in $1945$ if not for deep-seated suspicions and exaggeration of Soviet strength. However, others argue it was impossible to work with Joseph Stalin.
• Environmental Cost: The manufacture and testing of nuclear weapons left a "delayed action time bomb" of polluted air, water, and soil.
• Financial Cost: The US and the USSR spent trillions of dollars on armaments. The US borrowed heavily to afford it, while the Soviet economy ultimately collapsed under the weight.
• Human Cost: Millions died in proxy "shooting wars" within the Cold War:
  • Millions in Korea.
  • Millions in Vietnam.
  • Over a million in Afghanistan.
  • Hundreds of thousands in Africa and Central America.
  • $200$ deaths at the Berlin Wall.
• Ideological Outcome: Marxism-Leninism was the primary loser. While Fidel Castro remains convinced of the ideals of socialism, others argue the system collapsed because it suppressed national identity and went against man's fundamental need for freedom and enterprise.

Questions & Discussion

• Question on the USSR's Military Might: Was it possible for the USSR to move into Europe in $1945$?
• Response: The transcript notes that the Soviet Union was a "devastated country" that had lost millions of people and could not possibly have moved further into Europe at that time.
• Question on the End of the Cold War: Is the world safer now?
• Response: Leaders and participants expressed that they "breathe more easily now." The "fever" of the Cold War and the permanent state of alarm over nuclear war has been lifted, removing a "heavy burden" from humanity.