Poli Sci 4/15 - Voter Participation and Turnout Study Guide

Political Science 101 – Introduction to American Politics

Instructor: Professor Tatishe M. Nteta, Department of Political Science.
Announcements: * Today: Participation. * Wednesday: Participation and Parties. * Wednesday: Final Exam Review Sheet. * Next Monday: Zoom Lecture.

The Rationality of Political Participation

The Rational Choice Model Equations: * P \times B > C = \text{Behavior} * P \times B < C = \text{No Behavior}
Components of the Equation: * $P$ (Probability): The probability that an individual's behavior will have the desired effect or be impactful on the final outcome. * $B$ (Benefits): * Material: Tangible rewards. * Solidary: Social benefits of association. * Purposive: Satisfaction of contributing to a cause. * $C$ (Costs): * Information: Resources spent learning about candidates and issues. * Time: The hours required to register and vote. * Transportation: The logistics of getting to the polls.
The Problem of Irationality: * If P \times B < C, rational choice suggests individuals should not participate. * This leads to individuals "free riding" on the irrationality of others and enjoying the benefits of their preferred candidate's policies without incurring the cost. * Question remains: Are millions of people irrational if they choose to vote despite these high costs and low probabilities?

Probability and the Decisiveness of a Vote

Probability of Deciding an Election (2020 Presidential Election Metrics): * The chance of a single vote deciding the election varies greatly by state. * Massachusetts (2020): * $1\text{ in } 500,000,000$ chance the vote results in a tie. * $1\text{ in } 4,000,000,000$ chance the vote is decisive. * Context: Massachusetts population (2020 Census) is $7,029,917$ . * Selected State Probabilities ( $Pr(\text{your vote is decisive})$ ): * New Hampshire: $1\text{ in } 1,000,000$ * Pennsylvania: $1\text{ in } 2,000,000$ * Florida: $1\text{ in } 3,000,000$ * New York: $1\text{ in } 3,000,000$ * California: $1\text{ in } 7,000,000,000$ * Wyoming: $1\text{ in } 30,000,000,000$
Powerball Odds Comparison: * The odds of winning the Powerball Jackpot are approximately $1\text{ in } 175,223,510$ . * It is statistically significantly more likely to win the Powerball than for a vote to be decisive in many U.S. states.
Exceptions to the Rule (State-Level Recounts): * In December $2022$ , a Massachusetts state house election flip occurred. Kristin Kassner won against Republican Lenny Mirra by exactly $1\text{ vote}$ after a recount.

Demographic Patterns in Voter Participation

Class and Pluralism: * As noted by Elmer Eric Schattschneider: "The flaw in the pluralist heaven is that the heavenly chorus sings with a strong upper-class accent."
Race and Hispanic Ethnicity Turnout Rates (1986–2024): * Non-Hispanic Whites consistently show higher turnout rates relative to other groups. * Non-Hispanic Black turnout reached peaks around $2008$ and $2012$ . * Hispanic and other non-Hispanic groups generally show lower turnout rates.
Age and Turnout Rates: * Age $60+$ : Highest turnout rate. * Age $45-59$ : Second highest. * Age $30-44$ : Third. * Age $18-29$ : Consistently the lowest turnout group.
Education and Turnout Rates: * Post-College School: Highest participation rates. * Some College or College Grad: Elevated participation. * High School Grad: Lower participation. * No High School: Lowest participation rates.

The "Three M’s" of Participation

Motives: Attitudinal factors making participation more likely. * Civic Duty: The belief that participation is necessary for a representative democracy to function. * Political Efficacy: The belief that individual political actions matter and can effect change in people or policies. * Self Interest: A material stake in the outcome. * Expectations: The pressure of community organizations and personal networks. Visible signs like "I Voted" stickers serve as proof to one's network that expectations were met.
Means: The resources required for participation. * The formula suggests higher levels of Time, Money ( $), Experience, and Information result in higher participation because they counter the Costs ($ C). * Time Disparities: * Individuals aged 55-64 $spend$ 5.4\text{ hours/day} on leisure/sports. * Individuals aged 75+ $spend$ 7.5\text{ hours/day}. * Working parents age 25-54 $with children under$ 18 $spend only$ 2.5\text{ hours/day} $on leisure/sports and$ 7.7\text{ hours/day} working. * Financial Disparities (IRS 2016 data): * Average Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) for age 18-26 $:$ 18,798. * Average AGI for age 45-55 $:$ 98,597. * Median Net Worth (2019): Younger than 35 $is$ 13.9\text{K} $, while age$ 65-74 $is$ 266.4\text{K}. * Information and Barriers for Youth: * 52\,\% need to rearrange work/school schedules. * 39\,\% did not know where to vote. * 26\,\% need help with candidate/ballot information. * 26\,\% need help discerning truth vs. fake news. * 25\,\% need to arrange rides.
Mobilization: Participation increases when individuals are asked to vote by parties, interest groups, or candidates. * Who is asked?: Mobilization efforts target those previously turned out, who are demographically older, educated, white, and higher income. * Impact of Contact (2024 CES): Among those contacted, 72\,\% $voted; among those not contacted, only$ 38\,\% voted. * Contact Disparity by Age: Only 40\,\% $of those aged$ 18-29 $were contacted, compared to$ 60\,\% $of those aged$ 55+.

Low Voter Turnout in the United States

Comparative Turnout Statistics: * U.S. Turnout: 66\,\% $in$ 2020 $;$ 64\,\% $in$ 2024. * Sweden (2018): 82.1\,\%. * South Korea (2017): 77.9\,\%. * Israel (2020): 77.9\,\%. * Canada (2019): 62.4\,\%.
Institutional Factors explaining "Low" Turnout: * Number of Elections: The U.S. has a high frequency of elections at national, state, and local levels due to federalism. * Example: Northampton, MA (2018–2025) has municipal, state, and federal elections nearly every year, sometimes multiple times (primaries vs. general). * Example Counterpoint: France has had roughly 11 $major elections since$ 2018. * Registration Laws: * 24 states have Same Day Registration (SDR). * SDR states typically have turnout rates 7\,\% higher than pre-registration states. * In 2020 $, highest turnout states included Minnesota ($ 80.0\,\% $), Colorado ($ 76.4\,\% $), and Maine ($ 76.3\,\%), all using either SDR or Vote At Home. * Election Day (Why Tuesday?): * 1845 Congress decision based on historical logistical needs: travel by buggies, avoiding church (Sunday), and avoiding market day (Wednesday). * The U.S. is one of only 9 $OECD nations with weekday voting;$ 27 nations vote on weekends. * Electoral System (SMP vs. PR): * Single Member Plurality (SMP): "50\,\% + 1 $" wins the district. If the GOP wins by a narrow margin in all$ 435 districts, they get all seats. * Proportional Representation (PR): Seats are awarded in proportion to the total vote. In the same scenario, the GOP would get 222 $seats and Democrats$ 213. * The probability of a vote "mattering" (P) is higher in PR systems.

Felony Disenfranchisement

Statistics: * 5.2\,\text{million} Americans are legally barred from voting due to felony convictions. * 48 states prohibit inmates from voting. * 20 states prohibit felons on probation or parole. * 11 states disenfranchise felons indefinitely or require a governor’s permission to restore rights.
Racial Disparities: * 1\text{ in } 59 non-black voters are disenfranchised. * 1\text{ in } 16 African Americans are disenfranchised. * Black individuals represent 33.3\,\% $of the prison population but only$ 12.6\,\% of the total U.S. population.
Public Opinion on Reform (2021/2023 UMass Poll): * Restoring rights after sentence: 79\,\% $of all respondents favor this ($ 60\,\% $Republicans,$ 93\,\% Democrats). * Allowing current inmates to vote: Only 31\,\% $of all respondents favor this ($ 12\,\% $Republicans,$ 53\,\% Democrats). * Making Election Day a National Holiday: 60\,\% $total support ($ 38\,\% $Republicans,$ 80\,\% Democrats). * Same Day Registration: 57\,\% $total support ($ 30\,\% $Republicans,$ 82\,\%$$ Democrats).