East & Southeast Asia Lecture

East Asia: Setting the Stage

  • Regional hegemon = China

    • Hegemon = the power with the region’s dominant economic, military, and political influence.

    • Other East-Asian states matter (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc.) but China sets the tone.

U.S.–China Tariff War (2018 → present)

  • Sequence of tariff escalations (Time-magazine timeline)

    • Feb 2018: U.S. +10\% tariff to curb fentanyl; ends the \leq!\$800 duty-free rule (hurting firms like Shein, Temu).

    • China retaliation: 15\% tariff on coal & LNG.

    • Mar 2018: U.S. lifts tariffs to 20\% ➜ China responds w/ 15\% on U.S. agri-goods.

    • “Liberation-Day” round: extra 34\% on top of previous 24\% (54\% cumulative) ➜ mirrored by China.

  • Classroom brainstormed effects

    • China: capital flight, accelerated off-shoring (Vietnam, India, Mexico), potential slower GDP growth.

    • U.S.: higher consumer prices, supply-chain re-routing, loss of Chinese investment (China = #1 foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries).

    • Both: inflationary pressure, trade diversion, global uncertainty.

Why Target BRICS?

  • Trump team views BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) as an alternative economic pole challenging U.S./Western rules.

  • Letters & threats but no coherent plan ➜ global policy instability.

Taiwan Flash-Point

  • 1945 civil-war legacy: Nationalists (Chiang Kai-shek) fled to Taiwan; CCP (Mao) rules mainland.

  • China: “One-China” policy, deadline hinted by Xi for reunification.

  • Taiwan public: majority identify as separate; will fight despite mismatch.

  • U.S. strategic ambiguity

    • Opposes forceful reunification yet avoids formal defense pledge.

    • Support motivated largely by semiconductors.

Semiconductor Centrality

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) ≈ 70\% of global chip output; 90\% of advanced (<7 nm) logic chips.

  • Chips feed AI, consumer electronics, defense; Taiwan outages could cost \sim\$800\text{ billion} in trade.

Belt & Road Initiative (BRI)

  • Launched 2013; merges Silk Road Economic Belt (land) + 21st-century Maritime Road.

  • Scope ≈ 8\text{ trillion USD}; 150+ projects: rail, roads, ports, oil/gas lines, power dams, hospitals.

  • Geographic reach: East Asia to Europe, across Africa, Latin America, South Pacific.

  • Dual motives

    • Economic stimulus for Chinese SOEs, export markets, resource security.

    • Political leverage: debtor-state dependence, vote alignment in UN.

  • Concerns (esp. U.S./EU)

    • “Debt-trap diplomacy” ➜ high-interest loans to poorer states.

    • Environmental/climate effects (coal plants, deforestation).

    • Undercuts Western standards on transparency & labor.

South China Sea (SCS) Dispute

  • Claimants: China, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei; Japan sides w/ Philippines despite no claim.

  • China’s Nine-Dash Line encloses ≈90\% of SCS; enforced via PLA-Navy & island militarisation.

  • Stakes

    • \sim\,\$3.5\text{ trillion} trade/year; major crude-oil & LNG sea-lane.

    • Potential seabed hydrocarbons + rich fisheries.

  • Risk: miscalculation ➜ naval skirmish, draws in U.S. (treaty ally w/ Philippines).

  • Pop-culture footnote: Vietnam threatened to censor the Barbie movie for briefly showing the Nine-Dash Line.

Myanmar (Burma) 2021 Coup & Aftermath

  • Feb 2021 Tatmadaw (military) annulled election, detained Aung San Suu Kyi & NLD leaders; declared 1-yr emergency.

  • Resistance: National Unity Gov’t + ethnic militias; military razes villages, commits war-crimes.

  • Economy ↓ 20\% (=\tfrac15 contraction); poverty & barter economy surge.

  • China’s stance

    • Initially tacitly backed junta; later feared chaos, closed borders, restricting crucial supplies, worsening inflation.

India: Climate, Economy, & Politics

Climate & Energy

  • India warming slower than neighbors (possible “pollution sun-shield”, irrigation & monsoon dynamics) yet still vulnerable.

  • Rising emissions: now 3rd-largest CO₂ source; IMF & World Bank offer green-transition funds.

  • Projected impacts

    • 600\text{ million} exposed to lethal heatwaves.

    • Soil desiccation ➜ crop failure, famine risk.

Domestic Politics

  • PM Narendra Modi (BJP – Hindu-nationalist)

    • Rapid GDP growth but persistent unemployment & inflation.

    • Accusations of anti-Muslim bias: Citizenship Amendment Act (2019) fast-tracks non-Muslim migrants; “bulldozer justice”; Kashmir internet cut 85×.

  • 2024 election: BJP lost absolute majority; must govern in coalition ➜ moderates policy.

  • U.S.–India trade talks

    • U.S. seeks greater agri-market access; India protects farmers.

Key Definitions & Concepts

  • Hegemon • Infrastructure • Cultural diffusion • Hard power • War crime.

Selected Numbers & Equations

  • Tariff stacking: 24\% + 34\% = 54\% effective rate.

  • Myanmar GDP change: \Delta GDP = -20\% = -\tfrac15.

  • BRI budget ceiling: \leq 8\text{ trn USD}.

  • TSMC share: \approx70\% total chips, \approx90\% advanced chips.

  • SCS trade flow: \$3.5\text{ trn} annually.

Ethical / Practical / Philosophical Implications

  • Tariffs: populist “America First” vs. classical free-trade efficiency.

  • Debt-trap fears: sovereignty vs. development needs.

  • Semiconductor security: tech-nationalism & risk of kinetic war over chips.

  • Climate justice: developing nations (India, Myanmar) pay for emissions they barely caused.

  • Minority rights in democracies: India’s balancing of majority rule vs. pluralism.

Connections to Earlier & Wider Themes

  • Mirrors 19th-c. gunboat diplomacy (BRI leverage).

  • Parallels to Cold War proxy arenas (Taiwan, SCS, Myanmar insurgencies).

  • Climate-migration linkage echoed in previous lectures on Sub-Saharan Africa.

Real-World Relevance & Exam Tips

  • Cite quantitative stats (TSMC 90\%; Myanmar 20\% GDP drop) for persuasive essays.

  • When sourcing, pronounce outlets correctly: “Reuters” \to /ROY-ters/.

  • ASEAN (spelled \text{ASEAN}) = key regional forum shaping many of the above disputes.