Racial Attitudes and American Politics in the Trump Era

Electoral Temptations of Race in Diversifying America

Non-white voters are an increasing portion of the electorate.
Graph shows the percentage of presidential votes cast by non-whites from 1988 to 2012, with trends for Democratic and Republican candidates.

Option 1: Appeal to racial and ethnic minorities (as suggested in the Republican Growth and Opportunity Project Report after the 2012 election).
Problem: Moderating on race poses a problem for Republicans because:
- They depend on a coalition of wealthy and ethnocentric voters.
- Their base is increasingly animated by racial resentment, ethnocentrism, and Islamophobia.
- Moderating on race makes it hard to win Republican primaries (e.g., Eric Cantor's 2014 primary loss).
Option 2: Explicitly appeal to white voters’ ethnic antagonisms to increase turnout and win more white voters, especially in battleground states.
Appeal to non-white voters with weaker ingroup attachments and stronger outgroup antagonisms.
Shrink the multiracial coalition by making it more difficult for non-whites to vote.
Exploit features of the system that give whites disproportionate representation.

Partisan preferences are more divided by racial attitudes in the Obama era.
Partisan politics are more divided by immigration attitudes.
There is a growing partisan divide between whites and non-whites.
Low-education, racially conservative whites increasingly identify as Republican.
Racially conscious African Americans increasingly identify with Democrats.
Latinos and Asian-Americans with cooler feelings towards whites also increasingly identify with Democrats.
Partisan preferences are more divided by attitudes about Muslims in the Obama era.

Birtherism taps into widespread sentiments that people of color are less American.
Anti-immigrant sentiment is activated by fears of changing demographics and a declining white majority under Obama.
Islamophobic opposition is activated by widespread misperceptions of Obama’s religion (e.g., the Muslim Ban).

Data from a USA Today/Gallup Poll (April 20-23, 2011) shows Republican support for Trump at the height of the birtherism movement.

Graph shows vote intention for Donald Trump in the primaries (ANES Pilot, Jan 2016: Republicans + Leaners Only).
Strong correlation between the belief that Obama is Muslim and intention to vote for Trump.

Graph shows Trump vote intention in the primary (YouGov/Economist Surveys).
A scale measuring attitudes toward immigrants. Those with anti-immigrant sentiments were more likely to support Trump.

Graphs compare vote in the primaries for the Republican nominee in 2008 (McCain), 2012 (Romney), and 2016 (Trump) relative to favorability/thermometer rating of Muslims.
Anti-Muslim sentiment was more closely linked to support for Trump than for Romney and McCain.

Graphs compare vote in the primaries for the Republican nominee in 2008 (McCain), 2012 (Romney), and 2016 (Trump) relative to racial resentment.
Racial resentment was more closely linked to support for Trump than for Romney and McCain.

It could be harder to activate racial attitudes in the general election than in the primaries.
Fundamental causes of presidential vote, such as partisanship and presidential performance, could overwhelm other considerations.
Obama may have put a ceiling on the influence of racial attitudes in general election votes for president.
Obama Didn’t Talk Much About Race (Gillion 2016)
Clinton Tracks Left of Obama On Racial and Ethnic Issues
- “As a result, some white voters may have decided I wasn’t on their side”
- “That’s not ‘identity politics.’ It’s simple Justice”—(Clinton 2017, pg. 415).
Identity Issues Dominate Campaign Ads
Americans Were Well Aware of Trump’s Racial/Ethnic Controversies
- 85% Had Heard About Muslim Ban in December 2015
- Majorities consistently say term “racist” describes Trump in YouGov/Economist surveys
Americans see wider divide between candidates on race in 2016…

Graph shows perceived differences between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates on a 7-point aid to blacks scale.

Graphs show whites' support for the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 and 2016 relative to racial resentment and white ethnocentrism.

Graphs show whites' support for the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 and 2016 relative to racial resentment and immigration attitudes.

Graphs show Hillary Clinton vote intention among whites relative to racial resentment and white ethnocentrism, controlling for party, ideology, & demographics.

“Ultimate Attribution Error” (Pettigrew 1979):
- When whites struggle, their troubles are generally attributed to situational forces (e.g., outsourcing).
- When non-whites struggle, their plight is more often attributed to dispositional traits (i.e., poor work ethic).
Obama Farewell Address: “If every economic issue is framed as a struggle between [the] hard-working white middle class and undeserving minorities, then workers of all shades will be left fighting for scraps while the wealthy withdraw further into their private enclaves.”

Data shows that Trump voters think African-Americans are much less deserving than "average Americans."

Biden gained ground with whites in 2020, except for the most racially aggrieved.

Recent Democratic defections among Latinos are concentrated among racial conservatives.

Trump's 2024 campaign explicitly appeals to growing anti-immigrant sentiment among voters of color.
Americans increasingly view immigrants as a 'drain'
Trump seeks to win over Black and Latino voters by pitting them against undocumented immigrants.

Voters of color with restrictive immigration attitudes were most likely to switch to Trump from 2020-2024.

Growing Partisan Divide Over Race
Trump significantly expands growing racialization of mass politics during Obama presidency
Both Parties Eschew Longstanding Electoral Temptations of Race
Sanders and Clinton Stronger Statements on Race in 2016 than Obama’s presidency
Trump Shows Explicit Racial Appeals Can Be Powerful
Less Polarization By Race in 2020 and 2024, but More Polarization Over Race as Trump gains Support from Non-white voters with conservative views of race and immigration