Brexit Britain Notes -
Brexit Britain
Leading Questions
Why did the 2016 referendum over Brexit take place?
What was at stake?
What influenced the outcome?
What were subsequent developments; who is involved; what are the different interest groups?
How did negotiations develop?
What are current developments?
What are the results?
Reasons for the Referendum in June 2016
Great EU skepticism, particularly within the Tory party, with a long tradition of 'blaming' the EU.
Great success of UKIP in European elections.
David Cameron's attempt to pacify conservative backbenchers.
Britain and the EU
UK as a latecomer to the EC.
Joined EC in 1973.
Referendum in 1975 (caused by internal divisions within the Labour party) resulted in a clear majority (62%) voting ‘Yes’.
Issues Involved in Referendum
EU migrants and Britain.
Shortages in teachers and NHS staff (austerity Britain) blamed on the EU.
EU perceived as an alien, bureaucratic force: ‘Take back control’.
Money and the EU.
Half-hearted support of ‘Remain’ by Labour.
Promises made by the ‘Leave’ campaign.
Issues Involved (Cont.)
Personal power issues (Nigel Farage, UKIP; Boris Johnson, Tory).
Euro-sceptic press (Daily Telegraph; The Sun; The Daily Mail …).
Hawking back to old greatness? (“Empire 2.0”, “Global Britain”).
Fear of globalization?
Influence of Russia via social media?
Who Voted Brexit? (Statistics)
51.9% out; 48.1% in.
England and Wales – out; Scotland and Northern Ireland – in.
Gibraltar – in.
London and big towns – in; countryside – out.
Young – in; older people – out (but many young people did not vote!).
Educated and well-off – in.
Events Summer 2016
Resignation of David Cameron.
Boris Johnson, as the face of the ‘Leave’ campaign, does not step in; internal quarrels within the Conservative party and Labour party.
Theresa May becomes Prime Minister; commits herself to Brexit (crux: referenda non-binding and merely advisory).
Attempts to have a second referendum fail.
Long period of waiting.
Situation of foreigners in the UK worsens (hate crime).
Issues Under Debate
Who decides?
‘Hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit? (‘Soft Brexit’ = free movement and access to the common market).
Situation of EU-foreigners in the UK?
Can EU immigration be controlled?
Relation to other countries more profitable? (e.g. May and Trump).
The Great Repeal Bill and its problems.
European Court of Justice?
Role of international security?
Brexit and the Economy
Britain-based companies and access to the common market.
Food prices.
Foreign experts and their status in the UK.
UK as a tax haven?
Level of access to the EU Common Market and question of ‘Freedom of Movement’.
Brexit Negotiations
March 2017: Parliament passes Brexit Bill (House of Lords rejects bill at first and demands changes).
May – no deal better than a bad deal?
EU – making an example of Britain?
Britain: future costs for EU?
‘Cherry-picking’ (?)
The Path to Brexit
March 29, 2017, May triggers Article 50 letter to EU starts two-year period of negotiations.
Brexit and the United Kingdom
Scotland: traditionally close links to the continent (e.g. ‘Auld Alliance’ with France).
Nicola Sturgeon (former First Minister of Scotland) proposed a second referendum for Scottish independence in case of Brexit.
Northern Ireland – fear renewed sectarian violence; fear new border EU – non-EU country.
Gerry Adams proposes a referendum for unification with the Republic
2019: rise of violence in Northern Ireland.
The Brexit Election
Snap election in summer 2017 called by May to gain support for her Brexit policy.
May lost her majority in Parliament after initial polls suggested an easy victory.
May formed a coalition with the DUP (very conservative, unionist party).
May in a weak position in her own party.
Northern Ireland became a central point in Brexit negotiations.
April 2018 – 20 Years of the Belfast Agreement
Fear that Brexit and a new hard border might threaten peace in Ireland.
A special status for Northern Ireland to stop a hard border?
“Backstop” as the central point in negotiations.
Fear of the end of the United Kingdom.
Further Developments
Negotiations EU – UK.
Very different approaches and aims (points of debate: money, single market, free movement).
End of negotiations: Nov 2017, Withdrawal Agreement formed.
Problem: getting Agreement through Parliament.
Considerable disagreement within the Tory Party.
May’s agreement is defeated several times!
No Deal Brexit?
Path towards Brexit
Resignation of Theresa May July 2019.
Boris Johnson elected leader of the Conservative Party and became Prime Minister.
General Election December 2019; Boris Johnson won a large majority with his promise to ‘get Brexit done’; appointed a very pro-Brexit cabinet.
31 January 2020 Britain formally leaves the EU; due to a transition period, nothing much changes.
Spring 2020 negotiations start again.
1 January 2021 Britain transition period ends the UK leaves the EU.
Results of Brexit
Problems of British Trading Companies (esp. food producers); Britain is now a country outside the EU; much ‘red tape’ needed; also affects Falklands, etc.
Northern Ireland
Violence in Northern Ireland
Unionists feel abandoned by the UK; the Irish Sea is now a border of sorts, ‘Sausage War’.
Victory of Sinn Féin in 2022 Northern Irish elections; DUP threatens to boycott co-operation.
Recurring threat to abandon Northern Ireland Protocol.
First trading deals without EU (disappointing)
Shortages of certain petrol and certain foodstuffs in British supermarkets.
Shortages of lorry drivers and NHS workers.
Higher prices and rising poverty.
Majority now think Brexit was a bad idea.
Brexit – Some General Trends
General Trend towards ever harder Brexit as Hardliners gain in influence.
Originally: Brexit – yes or no?
Then: Hard or Soft Brexit?
Finally: Deal or No-deal Brexit?