131 Check

  • Trump called Afghanistan a waste of money and lives, smart stance politically

    • most americans agreed

  • connected indirectly to her husbands term in 90

  • Clinton feel short only slightly by electoral vote, trump’s position may have swayed based on foreign policy

  • Despite position campaign faced push back based from military and others

    • Nicholson said stalemate in Afghanistan and should push so America may win

  • Secretary of Defense and National Security Advisor (picked by Trump) opposed diplomacy and wanted to push back against Afghanistan

  • US backed gov in Kabul will collapse when they leave

  • Trumps first term so doesn’t want efforts to lessen (needs to be re-elected)

    • increased airstrikes

    • slight increase in ground troops (more risk ppl in uniform and trump politically with voters)

      • not thrilled bending to wishes of other, he like airstrikes but grinding his teeth while talking about ground troops

(told to troops not in white house like usual the speech)

Three Reasons for Staying

1. Make Americans'

sacrifice in Afghanistan

worth it.

2. Prevent another

Afghanistan-based 9/11.

3. The Afghanistan-

Pakistan region is very

dangerous.

  • Heart does not seem in the speech

  • Ideas are conventional talking points, for those in foreign policy

  • Trump appears to be giving country ideas same points as Obama’s first term

  • Counter points: better way to honor Americans/Afghans lost lives than investing lives, no need to have Afghanistan under fire despite the gov not planning 9/11 or anything

  • Trump said better do better or else will pull out soon anyways.

  • IEA continued while US not leaving

  • Trump pivoted 180 degrees and went back to campaign promise to take out US troops from Afghanistan

  • In July 2018 officially switched to diplomatic talks (continued from 2013 before they collapsed)

  • Picked Khalilzad as speaker, get deal of Afghanistan to pull out US troops safely.

    • Before even being able to talk to IEA, Akhundzada has a demand to free Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar

  • Baradar? wants halfway solution IEA and US gov (joined together). Solution proved difficult to achieve.

  • Not willing to deal with puppet gov until US leaves.

  • IEA still reluctantly to stop attacking US, but open to idea of talking to delegates and agree not to attack each other if US in process of leaving country

  • Khalilzad almost has it done 6 months early.

  • Suicide bombing, IEA views fine since no deal yet and US hasn’t left or agreed on withdrawal timeline.

  • Trump slams attack and blames IEA for trying to use US soldiers and was about to invite them to camp David

    • probably wouldn’t have happened, careful operators, Ahunzada rarely seen in public, pictures, or vid (btw this was before come in power in 2021)

  • Trump claims negotiations dead now

  • Took two months for dead talks to come back, Ghani felt left out: Baradar and Khalilzad talking it out again, IEA winning taking land, etc

  • Almost reach a bilateral deal (leaving out Ghani)

  • US wants terrorists gone and IEA wants emirate as before 2001

  • US Taliban agreement or Doha (bringing peace to Afghanistan)

    • could be interpreted differently

  • Trump administration took issue with what other party calls themselves.

US Goals at start of talks: an end to violence, an Afghan political settlement, IEA renunciation of al-Qa'eda, and a long-term presence of intelligence assets and special operations forces in Afghanistan for counterterrorism operations

(Source: Malkasian)

Outcome: Taliban agreeing not to attack US forces and not to allow groups to use Afghan soil for attacks on the United States (basically 1 or 1.5 out of 4)

  • 45th president gave more leeway to diplomats than 44th

  • Trump withdrawal timeline placed strategically after 2020 election

  • While commitments between US and IEA very concrete, IEA had vague commitments to afghan gov

  • even tho agreement secret not really shocking (Ghani felt lied to tho)

  • His only leverage (since military weak) was Taliban prisoners

  • Trump and Baradar talking: what do you need? prisoners released. Trump would tell Pompeo would press Ghani

  • Ghani cooperated and removed obstacles

  • because of prisoner hold up formal talks did not start till August 2020 (not march 2020)

    • talks mattered less at that point since fighting was changing reality on ground (IEA advanced all around Afghanistan especially in South)

  • Trump did not end war but left tools/plan for sucessor to do so