In-Depth Notes on "Coming Storms: The Return of Great-Power War"

Since the end of the Cold War, many policymakers and analysts believe great-power wars are a relic of the past.
John Lewis Gaddis labeled the post-WWII period as a "Long Peace" due to the absence of direct conflict between major powers.
Historians and political scientists like John Mueller and Steven Pinker have noted a general decline in violence, suggesting great-power conflict is becoming obsolete.

Despite ongoing conflicts in smaller countries (e.g., Afghanistan, Libya, Ukraine), no great-power wars have occurred since 1945.
Current tensions exist among major powers, especially between the U.S. and China, which could potentially lead to conflict.
The U.S.-China rivalry is fueled by power transition dynamics and competition for global status.

Many Americans believe that economic interdependence reduces the likelihood of warfare, but historical precedents (e.g., pre-WWI Europe) contradict this view.
- Economic ties can deteriorate, as shown in U.S.-China relations, illustrating that interdependence may not be a safeguard against war.
Analysts often point to the strength of nuclear deterrence as a protective factor, but advancements in nuclear capabilities have made limited nuclear conflicts conceivable.

The belief that the liberal international order will maintain peace is problematic, as it faces challenges from rising populism and changes in global power dynamics.
U.S. domestic changes, including populism, may weaken support for the current international order, creating tension with rising powers.

The competition between the United Kingdom and imperial Germany before WWI serves as a historical lens for the U.S.-China relationship today.
British resentment towards Germany's rise parallels U.S. attitudes towards China.
- Trade ties and cultural connections did not prevent war; instead, British elites viewed Germany's growth as a threat.
Factors that fostered peace between the two nations were ultimately insufficient to prevent war.

The U.S. views the rise of China not just as a power challenge but as an ideological one, believing it threatens democratic values.
Current policy rhetoric reflects a recognition of ideological distinctions, framing the U.S.-China conflict in terms of democracy vs. communism.
Credentials of officials suggest that U.S. strategies are not focused on diplomatic competition but on ideological opposition, increasing the risk of conflict.

U.S.-Chinese relations are deteriorating due to trade conflicts, military tensions, and differing perspectives on Taiwan.
Historical fears of losing influence may propel the U.S. into conflict despite alternatives for peaceful resolution.
A failure to recognize China's rise as a legitimate challenge and to respect its power may lead to war, mirroring the pre-WWI situation.

The historical context shows that peace transitions between declining and rising powers are often fraught with tension.
The U.S.'s current trajectory resembles past mistakes that led to major conflicts.
A pragmatic acknowledgment of shifts in power dynamics and strategic concessions may be necessary to avert future wars, yet the likelihood of such adjustments appears small, raising concerns over escalations into warfare.