Laundering Carbon: The Gulf’s ‘New Scramble for Africa’

Event Context: In November 2023, prior to COP28, UAE's Blue Carbon signed significant land deals in Africa, controlling land that equals 10% of Liberia, Zambia, and Tanzania, and 20% of Zimbabwe.
Company Background: Blue Carbon is owned by Sheikh Ahmed al-Maktoum, has no prior experience in carbon offsets or forest management, yet stands to profit immensely from these projects.
Carbon Offsets Explained: Carbon offsets involve protecting forests and other schemes to balance out carbon emissions. Companies buy these offsets as credits to claim their emissions are offset.

Concerns Raised by Activists: The large-scale land deals have been criticized as a "scramble for Africa," with fears of indigenous evictions for the sake of carbon offsetting.
Case Study - Ogiek Community: Indigenous people in Kenya faced eviction from the Mau Forest amidst negotiations involving Blue Carbon and the Kenyan government, highlighting the conflict between economic goals and indigenous rights.
Human Rights Violation Allegations: The situation has prompted calls for a global moratorium on carbon offset projects from figures like UN Special Rapporteur Francisco Calí Tzay.

Offset Project Types: The predominant type of carbon offset is avoided deforestation, where land is protected from logging.
Certification and Revenue: The firm Verra certifies these projects, affirming the carbon emissions that are prevented and enabling sales of carbon credits.
Issues with 'Permanence': Carbon credits rely on assumptions about the future, where destruction of protected forests (e.g., from fires) can negate their claimed benefits.
Imaginary Counterfactuals: Estimations of carbon reductions are speculative, leading to unreliable claims of effectiveness.
Market Corruption: Notable scandals in carbon trading reveal that many carbon credits sold are fictitious, undermining their intended purpose of emission reduction.

Growing Financial Market: The carbon offset market is projected to reach $250 billion by 2050, driven by large polluters using offsets to claim reduction goals.
Projected Contributions by Blue Carbon: The anticipated carbon credits from Blue Carbon's projects could theoretically match the UAE's total emissions.

Emerging Development Perspective: ACMI aims to generate funds via carbon credits, portraying them as a solution for African nations in debt crises following the pandemic and geopolitical tensions.
Key Partnerships: ACMI collaborates with Gulf corporations and international development organizations to further carbon credit markets in Africa, with extensive financial backing from the UAE.

Gulf States’ Strength in Carbon Trade: Countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia are positioning themselves not only as carbon credit providers but also as key players in the marketing of these credits.
Established Carbon Exchanges: Initiatives include the Abu Dhabi Global Market and partnerships in Saudi Arabia aimed at creating regulated carbon trading environments, with plans for future expansions.

Future of Fossil Fuels: Despite environmental challenges, Gulf nations continue to expand fossil fuel production while promoting carbon offsetting strategies as a means to appear proactive in climate change initiatives.
Critique of Carbon Accounting: The complexities of the carbon offset market often serve to mask the ongoing reliance on fossil fuels, raising questions about their sincerity in addressing climate change.

Long-Term Effects: The exploitation of African lands for carbon credits represents a strategic shift in the Gulf's economic relations, indicating potential ongoing harm to climate initiatives if profit motives continue to override environmental and community needs.
Author Background: Adam Hanieh is a professor focused on political economy and global development, emphasizing the intersections of climate change, capital, and community impacts in his analyses.