Geopolitics

Foundations: Geopolitics

What Does Geopolitics Mean?

  • Big picture view of interstate relations, geopolitics encompasses a worldwide set of relationships.

  • Focuses on the relationship between geography and international relations.

  • Involves balance of power politics.

  • Examines interactions between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

  • Geopolitics connects relationships between power and geography:

    • Analysts think of geopolitics in terms of land use and power for political objectives.

  • Definition by Brands:
    "Geopolitics is the study of how geography interacts with technology and the ceaseless struggle for global power."

Geography, State Power, & Security

  • The power of states and their security is influenced by geography in several ways:

    • Borders:

    • Some borders are easier to defend than others, leading to security advantages for states with defensible borders.

      • Examples include:

      • Mountains (e.g., Switzerland)

      • Oceans (e.g., United States)

      • Rivers (e.g., Russia)

    • Natural Resources:

    • Natural resource availability (oil, natural gas, fertile land) contributes to a state’s wealth and power.

    • Resources can lead to international influence but may also incite competition and conflict:

      • Saudi Arabia (oil richness)

      • Historical context of Germany, Poland, the Soviet Union regarding Lebensraum (living space).

    • Location:

    • Strategic locations provide advantages or disadvantages:

      • A positive example: Turkey's strategic position.

      • A negative example: Poland’s geography as a “bad neighborhood.”

    • Transport Routes:

    • States benefit from access to significant transport routes, facilitating trade:

      • Includes ports, rivers, canals, and rail links.

Balance of Power

  • Definition 1: Refers to the distribution of power among states in a region or the international system at large.

  • Definition 2: Principle of international relations aimed at preventing any single actor from becoming dominant, with overlaps between the definitions.

  • Actions taken by states to maintain a balance of power may include:

    • Collaborating or destabilizing actions against potentially dominant states:

    • Historical examples include:

      • Concert of Europe

      • Great Britain as a maritime and European power

      • Cold War policies of the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

  • Balance of Power Tools:

    • Military capabilities

    • Alliances

    • Economic resources

    • Soft power (influence through attraction rather than coercion).

Some Balance of Power Strategies

  • Historical responses to power distributions include:

    • Balancing: Great Britain in Continental Europe.

    • Bandwagoning: Finland during World War II.

    • Hiding: Sweden during the Cold War.

Geography, Strategy, and Great Britain

  • Great Britain’s historical role as a balancer in Europe is influenced by geography and national interests:

    • Geography: Island nation, insulated from land-based threats faced by continental powers (e.g., France, Germany, Russia).

    • Great Britain's strategy aims to prevent a dominant land power in Europe through:

    • Historical Examples:

      • Napoleonic Wars: Coalition against Napoleonic France.

      • Crimean War: Intervention to curb Russian expansion in the Black Sea region.

      • World War I: Alliance with France and Russia against German and Austrian dominance.

What Was the Concert of Europe & Why Do We Care About It?

  • The Congress of Vienna facilitated negotiations among Europe's great powers post-Napoleonic Wars to reconfigure Europe's map:

    • Objective: Prevent future conflicts like the Napoleonic Wars.

    • Europe's history of warfare spans from the French Revolution until Napoleon's exile.

    • The Concert aimed to maintain stability by handling disputes and preventing hegemonic powers that could disrupt order:

    • Diplomatic negotiations as a method for peace.

    • Resulted in the reinstatement of legitimate rulers and compensation for territorial changes.

Concert of Europe, 1817

  • Overview includes mapping Europe post-Congress of Vienna, illustrating various important political territories and relationships.

Nicolas Spykman on Geography & International Politics

  • Spykman emphasized that:

    • "States cannot escape their geography. A state’s foreign policy must reckon with geographic facts… it cannot ignore them. For geography does not argue. It simply is."

Widening the Lens: Big Picture Geopolitical Strategies

Alfred Mahan (1890) – The Influence of Sea Power

  • Mahan argued that global dominance hinges on commercial and naval expansion, rather than territorial occupation:

    • Naval Dominance:

    • Protects trade routes.

    • Secures foreign colonies.

    • Projects power.

  • A reinforcing dynamic exists:

    • Naval power controls trade routes critical for prosperity, which in return fosters naval power.

  • Advocated for U.S. battleship construction and establishing “open door” trade alongside foreign bases for creating an informal empire.

Heartland Theory: Mackinder’s (1904) View of Geopolitics

  • Core argument: Controlling the Heartland (Pivot area) is essential for global dominance, necessitating land power.

  • Dominating Heartland resists external domination.

Mackinder’s Regions of Geopolitics

  • Heartland or Pivot Area:

    • A vast, landlocked Euro-Asian area critical in history and geopolitics.

  • Characterized by:

    • Rich agricultural regions fostering large populations.

    • Extensive natural resources for military and industrial use.

  • Russia as the dominant power in the Heartland.

  • Inner Crescent:

    • Surrounds the Heartland; influences events there (Germany, Austria, Turkey, India, China).

  • Outer Crescent:

    • Lesser importance (e.g., Great Britain, Australia, U.S., Japan, South Africa).

Importance of the Heartland

  • The Heartland’s inaccessibility by sea increases defensibility due to natural geographic barriers (mountains, etc.).

  • Abundant natural resources facilitate power projection and sustain dominance.

Mackinder’s Advice

  • Mackinder warned against a balance shift favoring pivot states, which could facilitate fleet-building:

    • Emphasized the need for Great Britain to prevent a German-Russian alliance to maintain geopolitical balance.

  • He stated:
    "The actual balance of political power at any given time is shaped by geographic conditions and the competing peoples' attributes."

Critiques of Heartland Theory

  • Lacks adaptability to changes over time, overly simplistic.

  • Underestimate of Rimland's significance—coastal areas crucial for control comparison to the Heartland.

Rimland Theory – Spykman (1944)

  • The Rimland Theory posits that control of Eurasian Rimland is decisive for world dominance, linking it to resource control and world trade.

  • Key components identified:

    • Heartland and Rimland delineation with emphasized importance on Rimland regions (European Coastland, Middle Eastern deserts, Asiatic monsoon lands).

Spykman’s Types of States

  • Landlocked States: e.g., Afghanistan, Nepal, Rwanda.

  • Island States: e.g., Great Britain, Japan.

  • States with Land and Sea Borders: e.g., U.S., Russia, China.

  • Each state type carries implications for security strategies depending on their geographic configuration.

How Rimland Theory Differs from Heartland Theory

  • Control Focus:

    • Rimland Theory prioritizes coastal and land-surrounding areas, while Heartland Theory emphasizes landmass control.

  • Geography:

    • Rimland Theory places importance on oceans and ports for projecting military power, unlike Heartland Theory that focuses on geographical barriers.

  • Power Tools:

    • Rimland Theory highlights naval power and alliances, contrasting with Heartland Theory's emphasis on land armies.

Allies, Enemies, and Frenemies: Geopolitics of the Cold War

The Geopolitics of U.S. Cold War Strategy

  • Truman Doctrine: A core policy aiming to contain Soviet expansion via:

    • Providing support to free nations resisting internal or external pressures:

    • Acheson’s analogy of “apples in a barrel” exemplifies the spread of communism.

    • Statement from Truman in March 1947:
      "… it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures."

  • Containment strategy established alliances:

    • NATO and the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

  • Timeline of NATO configurations and expansions across critical years (1949, 1952-1982, 1999, 2004-2009, 2017-2020, 2023).

U.S.-Japan Security Treaty (1960)

  • Significance in the Asia-Pacific context post-World War II, establishing mutual defense commitments.

U.S. Foreign Military Bases - Pre-WW2

  • Overview of U.S. military bases established abroad before World War II, including their geolocations and the number of troops.

U.S. Foreign Military Bases - Cold War, 1989

  • Mapping U.S. military bases at the end of the Cold War highlights their positions and the extent of U.S. control.

Geopolitics of Soviet Cold War Strategy I - Warsaw Pact (1955)

  • Establishment of the Warsaw Pact as a collective defense treaty involving the Soviet Union and Central and Eastern European states in response to NATO formation:

    • Stated goals were to maintain security and balance against perceived threats (e.g. remilitarization of Germany).

The Geopolitics of Soviet Cold War Strategy II – Brezhnev Doctrine

  • Brezhnev Doctrine established guidelines for East European communist states:

    • Subordinated their policies to Soviet objectives.

    • Defined any threat to socialism in one state as a threat to the broader communist movement.

  • Justified interventions in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Afghanistan.

Geopolitics of the Cold War - China and the Soviet Union

  • Post-1949, China became linked to the Soviet Union through the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship:

    • Two nations pledged mutual defense and cooperation, with implications for regional influence and ideology.

Geopolitics of the Cold War: From Friends to Frenemies

  • Tensions developed between China and the Soviet Union in the 1960s due to issues like:

    • Nationalism and influences of Soviet dominance.

    • Border disputes and regional disagreements.

  • The U.S. took advantage of this rift to improve its geopolitical position.

Geopolitics of the Cold War: “Playing the China Card”

  • Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China resulted in a shift in relationships:

    • Recognition of the People’s Republic of China and strengthened U.S.-China relations.

    • Triangular diplomacy between the U.S., PRC, and Soviet Union aimed at balancing power.

Taking the Geo-out of Geopolitics?

  • Geography fundamentally influences state interactions:

    • Shapes threats, opportunities, and interests of states.

  • Technological evolution challenges geographic determinants (e.g. drone warfare, cybersecurity).

Where Do We Go From Here?

  • Questions on the application of geopolitics in modern contexts:

    • Responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. strategies against China’s rise, and central issues framing international conflict and security threats from AI and climate change.

US Military Presence Around the World

  • The U.S. has roughly 750 military bases in 80 countries with about 173,000 troops in 159 countries

  • Highlights of troop deployments per country include:

    • Japan, Germany, South Korea, Italy, the UK, and others with specific troop numbers indicated.

Sources: Allen, Michael A, Flynn, E., & Martinez Machain, C. (2021). "Global U.S. military deployment data: 1950-2020." David Vine, "Lists of U.S. Military Bases Abroad, 1776-2021." American University Digital Research Archive (2021).