The Winter War: Causes and Effects

Introduction

• The Russo-Finnish War of 1939-1940, known as the Winter War, is a notable part of World War II history.

• It occurred during the "Phony War," a calm period after Hitler's invasion of Poland.

• The Winter War reveals the attitudes of major powers and the growing inevitability of the coming war (1939-1940).

• It offers insights into Soviet imperialism, concerns about German aggression, and influenced Germany's decision to invade Russia in 1941.

• Understanding the Winter War is crucial for explaining the behaviors of major world powers during World War II.

Origins of the Russo-Finnish War

• The origins of the war can be traced back to three significant elements:

  • Finland’s historical relationship with Russia.

  • Russia’s perception of its vulnerabilities (1939-1940) to a German invasion.

  • Russia’s desire to project strength as deterrence.

Russian Revolution of 1917

• The Russian Revolution of 1917 and World War I upheavals led to the ousting of the Tsar’s government and significant political changes.

• This offered opportunities for parts of the former Tsar’s empire (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Finland) to seek independence.

• Finland had been part of Russia since 1809 but maintained national autonomy as a semi-self-ruling Grand Duchy.

• Finnish nationalism grew due to Tsar Nicholas II’s attempts at the "Russification" of Finnish politics in 1899.

Finland's Independence

• After the Bolsheviks toppled the Tsar, Finland sought complete independence, capitalizing on Russian disorganization.

• Vladimir Lenin believed the communist revolution would spread globally, so he allowed groups like the Finns to secede, expecting their return.

• The Bolshevik government in Leningrad faced pressing concerns, including the beginnings of a civil war.

• Finland and other groups seeking independence had close ties with Germany.

• Germany's support for pro-German movements forced war-torn Russia to allow the balkanization of its holdings.

• The new regime lacked the power to resist Finnish independence and supported the communist party covertly in Finland’s civil war.

Treaty of Dorpat (1920)

• After gaining independence and quelling its civil war with German aid, Finland solidified its position with the Treaty of Dorpat in 1920.

• The treaty defined territorial boundaries and mutual rights between Finland and Russia.

• Neither side was pleased with the treaty details; Finnish nationalists felt they conceded too much, while Russia begrudgingly granted Finland control of the Karelian Isthmus near Leningrad.

• Joseph Stalin later found this demarcation close to Leningrad's population centers unsettling.

Finnish and Russian Attitudes

• Russia viewed Finland as part of its historical territory and necessary for restoring its empire.

• Finland viewed Russia as a potential aggressor due to its history of conquest in 1809, Russification, and interference in its civil war.

• The Treaty of Dorpat was a point of contention; Finland grew content with it, but Russia saw it as a stain on its honor, awaiting a remedy through revolution.

• Changing world circumstances, especially German actions, hastened Russia's desire to alter the treaty.

Nazi-Soviet Nonaggression Pact

• The Nazi-Soviet Pact divided Eastern Europe, giving Russia control over the Baltic nations, including Finland.

• This allowed Russia to potentially mirror the borders of its old empire but posed a danger if Russia failed to assert control.

• Germany's aggressive seizure of western Poland in 1939 heightened concerns.

• Russia attempted to mimic Germany by imposing its will on smaller powers, demanding mutual assistance and military access treaties with Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, leaving Finland as the only holdout.

Russian Concerns

• Russia worried that any perceived weakness would invite a German invasion through Finland, threatening Leningrad.

• Russia aimed to win concessions from Finland, ideally diplomatically, but with military force as an option.

• After the Austro-German Anschluss in 1938, Russia viewed war and expansion as central to Nazism.

• Negotiations opened with Finland to strengthen Russia’s position against potential German aggression.

• Russia requested territory on the Karelian Isthmus be moved 70 km west, a mutual assistance pact, and access to a naval base.

• These demands were presented as defensive measures against a German invasion, creating a land buffer and preventing German forces from landing in Finland.

Alternative Interpretations

• Some scholars argue Russia was not genuinely concerned about a German invasion but sought to restore its empire by subjugating weaker nations.

• Russia’s behavior after World War II suggests imperial interests, but concerns about its defensive position given Germany’s actions were legitimate.

• The Anglo-German Naval Agreement allowed Germany to increase its fleet size, threatening Russian control of the Baltic Sea.

• Russia’s demand for a naval base in the Baltic was likely influenced by Germany’s naval expansion.

• Russia aimed to strengthen its defenses and appear stronger by altering its borders with Finland.

Finnish Perspective

• Finland was unwilling to concede territory due to its history of Russian domination since 1917.

• Experiences like Russian interference in politics led to a "legacy of suspicion" regarding Russian offers, particularly those involving territorial control.

• The Russian domination of Estonia following its mutual assistance pact demonstrated risks to Finland's sovereignty.

• Finland was hesitant to align with any major power bloc and wary of Russia's suggestion of a military alliance against Germany.

• Finland still viewed Germany as a supporter of its independence, maintaining economic, scholastic, cultural, and ecclesiastical ties.

• Finland saw Germany as a potential defender against Russia.

Negotiations and Impatience

• Despite lacking promises of support, Finland repeatedly refused Russian demands during negotiations in 1939.

• Finland mobilized partially in response to Russian activity in Latvia and Estonia, hoping German interest would deter Russia.

• Finland’s confidence in German support led to a stronger negotiating stance than its military position warranted.

• Negotiations halted on November 9th, leading Russia to stage a military incident on November 26th and demand Finnish troops withdraw.

• Finland refused, and Russia invaded on November 30th, 1939.

Russian Invasion Plan

• Russia planned to overwhelm Finnish defenses in twelve days, mirroring Germany’s invasion of Poland.

• The Leningrad Military District, composed of reservists, would execute the plan. The plan failed.

• Russian leaders underestimated Finnish troops and defenses, dividing their forces into two groups.

• One group attacked the Karelian Isthmus, while the other entered through Finland’s eastern flank.

• Russian forces, despite superior strength, were defeated by Finnish resistance.

• The divided forces failed to break through the Mannerheim Line or compete with Finnish ski troops.

• Russian troops suffered heavy losses, halting against the Mannerheim Line or being ambushed in the forests.

War Outcome

• By the spring of 1940, Russia launched a new offensive, uniting its forces and compelling Finland to a war of attrition.

• After 105 days, on March 13, Finland signed a peace treaty, yielding to Russian demands due to high casualties.

• Nikita Khrushchev later said the victory felt like a defeat due to the heavy costs.

• Russia gained territory, including naval bases and land on the Karelian Isthmus, but suffered over 500,000 casualties compared to Finland’s 60,000.

• The Russian military lost prestige, leading Hitler and his generals to view communism as weak.

• Stalin’s purge of military commanders in 1937 and 1938 contributed to an incompetent army.

• Russia achieved its tactical objectives but weakened its defense and increased the risk of a German invasion.

Impact on Germany

• Before invading Russia in 1941, Hitler believed the Russian structure would collapse easily, influenced by the Winter War.

• Hitler should have recognized Russia’s military effectiveness and resilience from the entire Winter War.

• The Winter War revealed weaknesses in the Russian Army, such as inexperienced commanders, poorly-trained troops, and the Commissar system.

• It also demonstrated Russia’s ability to regroup, overcome poor leadership, endure losses, and achieve victory through relentless attacks.

• The Russian army could not be broken by a quick campaign, and its vast reserves would eventually wear down the opponent.

Conclusions about Russia

• Russia invaded Finland to project strength and secure its border, but failed in both aspects.

• It secured the animosity of the Finnish people, who later joined the German invasion to regain territory.

• The Winter War convinced the world of Russia's weakness, which enticed Hitler to attack Moscow.

• Russia gained the contempt of German military leadership, paradoxically allowing it to expand its empire as it rolled back German advances in 1944.

Conclusion

• The Winter War, though brief, lays crucial groundwork for understanding World War II.

• It impacted Hitler’s perception of Russia’s military strength and influenced his decision to attack.

• Stalin’s invasion of Finland, driven by fear of German invasion, explains his later appeasement policy.

• The Winter War foreshadowed the Russian military’s initial defeats, regrouping, and eventual counterattack against superior German forces.

• Despite its short duration and military shortcomings, the Winter War played a crucial role in shaping the decisions of Germany and Russia in 1940 and 1941 and foreshadowed the outcome of a German invasion.