International Relations Theory - The Rise of China

Graham Allison Article Review: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

  • Graham Allison posits in his article that war between the U.S. and China is not only possible but more likely than recognized.
  • He introduces the Thucydides Trap, highlighting the increased likelihood of conflict when a rising power (China) clashes with an established power (U.S.).
  • Allison's primary concerns stem from historical precedents and Xi Jinping's leadership approach.
  • He suggests that the U.S.'s reaction to China's rise significantly influences the likelihood of war.

Discussion on U.S./China War Likelihood

  • Consideration of whether individuals agree with Allison's assessment.
  • Speculation on how Allison would evaluate the current U.S.-China relationship trajectory.
  • Discussion on whether the U.S. and China are currently on a path toward war.

China's Four Rings of Security

  • Based on Andrew Scobell and Andrew Nathan’s book “China’s Search for Security.”
  • Three key points of China's grand strategy:
    • Protect China’s territorial integrity.
    • Prevent external powers from dominating Asia.
    • Encourage economic growth.
  • The four rings are intrinsically linked to protecting China's territorial integrity.
    • 1st Ring: China itself, as it perceives its own boundaries and interests.
    • 2nd Ring: China's immediate regional neighborhood.
    • 3rd Ring: The six sub-regions surrounding China.
    • 4th Ring: The rest of the world and China's broader global interests.

Modern Examples of Chinese Expansionist Efforts

  • Support of North Korea:
    • Enabling sanctions evasion.
    • Facilitating North Korean refoulement.
  • Gray zone coercion in the South and East China Seas:
    • Highlighting potential flashpoints for conflict.
  • Development of Bluewater naval capabilities and military tactical development:
    • A2/AD (anti-access/area denial).
  • Djibouti overseas military base.
  • 2016 economic coercion against South Korea:
    • In response to its deployment of the THAAD ballistic missile defense system.
  • Institutional leadership:
    • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
    • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
  • Confucius Institutes:
    • Soft power build-up.
    • Including initiatives like the Chinese Super League and Wanda films.

IR Theories and China’s Expansion Tactics and Efforts

  • Realism:
    • Support for North Korea (external balancing).
    • Gray zone/economic coercion.
    • Developing Blue Water Naval capabilities and A2/AD (internal balancing).
    • Djibouti Military base.
  • Liberalism:
    • Institutional leadership.
    • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
    • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
  • Constructivism:
    • Confucius institutes, soft power build-up.
    • Communist influence to contest the Western ideological model.

Closing Discussion

  • Consideration of whether war between the U.S. and China is inevitable.
  • How will the ongoing tariff dispute and trade war impact U.S.-China relations?
  • Does the economic interdependency between the U.S. and China enhance the likelihood for peace?
  • Is the world returning to a similar system of Cold War bipolarity between the U.S. and China?
    • If yes, are we in a new “cold war?”