Study Notes on Violence by Non-State Actors: Civil Wars

Chapter 6A: Violence by Non-State Actors: Civil Wars

Course: POLS 231
Instructor: Dr. Rotem Dvir
Department: Political Science
Institution: Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University
Term: Spring 2026
Copyright: Original Content © 2022 W. W. Norton & Company

Introduction to Civil War and Terrorism

  • Non-State Actors: Groups not affiliated with a state that engage in organized political violence, often to achieve specific political goals.

    • Examples:

    • Rebel groups engaged in civil wars

    • Terrorist groups/networks

Reasons for Violence and Impact on Politics

  • Questions Explored:

    • Why do these groups resort to violence?

    • What is the impact on international politics?

    • How might strategies and institutions prevent or defuse this type of violence?

Differences and Similarities in Civil War and Terrorism

  • Definitions:

    • Civil War: A type of armed conflict where factions within a state fight against each other, typically involving government forces versus organized rebel groups.

    • Terrorism: A strategy utilizing violence, typically against civilians, to accomplish political goals.

  • Reasons for Studying Together:

    • Commonalities in the use of violence to accomplish political aims.

    • Adoption of similar operational and recruitment strategies.

    • Challenges associated with recruiting new members.

    • A notable empirical link: 80% of terrorist attacks from 2010-2016 occurred in countries experiencing civil war.

Civil War and Terrorist Attacks (2010-2016)

  • Map 6.1 Overview:

    • Illustration of civil conflicts related to battle-related deaths from 2010-2016.

    • Additional markers for locations of terrorist attacks during the same period.

    • Criteria for Classification:

    • Civil conflict: at least 25 battle-related deaths

    • Civil war: at least 1000 battle-related deaths.

Historical Context of Interstate and Civil Wars (1816-2016)

  • Trends Observed:

    • More states are typically involved in civil wars than interstate wars.

    • Data on UN peacekeeping missions (1948-2016): 41 of 71 missions were in single-state conflicts, while 12 involved both international and civil dimensions.

Civil War: Origins and Relevant Factors

  • Dynamics:

    • Civil wars often see governments and rebel groups fighting against one another.

    • Civilians are frequently the primary victims.

  • Origins of Intrastate War:

    • Grievances: Expressed dissatisfaction or injustice among the populace.

    • Greed: Economic motives driving rebellion.

    • Territorial Conflicts: Issues of separateness and territorial claims.

    • Overthrow Current Government: Ideals of regime change can spur conflicts.

Collective Action Problems in Revolts

  • Challenges faced by rebel groups in initiating revolts:

    • Though many social groups may be dissatisfied, only a fraction take active steps to revolt.

Mobilization in Civil Wars

  • Success Factors for mobilization include:

    • Group-Level Factors:

    • Shared identities (ethnic, religious, linguistic)

    • Access to resources

    • Collective sense of injustice.

    • Country-Level Factors:

    • Levels of national wealth and democratic governance.

    • Geographic attributes (e.g., rough terrain, large population).

    • International Factors:

    • External state aid to rebels.

    • Sanctions against the government.

    • Proxy wars involving foreign actors.

Case Studies in Civil Wars

Kashmir Region & Hizbul Mujahideen

  • Historical Context:

    • Kashmir has been under Indian control since 1947.

    • Inquiry into the nature of the Hizbul Mujahideen group's involvement.

South Sudan Separatism

  • Independence Milestone:

    • South Sudan achieved independence in 2011.

    • Motivations for Statehood:

    • Ethnic and religious disparities.

    • Wealth from oil resources.

South Sudan Civil War

  • Conflict Overview:

    • Civil war erupted less than two years post-independence, resulting in over 50,000 civilian deaths and 4 million displaced individuals by the end of 2017.

    • Questions raised about the correctness of partitioning South Sudan and further fragmentation.

    • Discussion on institutional considerations for stability.

Civil Conflict in the Darfur Region, Sudan

  • Participants:

    • Rebel groups, such as:

    • Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM)

    • Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)

    • Dynamics of the government signing a deal with SLM in 2006 while JEM continued its fight. In 2020, a new deal with all rebels was signed.

Civil War in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

  • Conflict Initiation:

    • Civil war began in 1996, rooted in the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide of 1994.

    • Atrocities included forced recruitment of child soldiers and significant civilian casualties, driven by interventions from neighboring countries.

    • The conflict involved multiple actors leading to a prolonged war.

Arab Spring (2010-2011)

  • Intrastate Conflicts:

    • Not all yield civil wars; for example, Tunisia’s leader resigned in 2011 leading to a new government without descending into civil conflict.

    • In Syria, a violent crackdown on protests led to a civil war that spread regionally, marked by the fall of Assad's regime in December 2024.

Bargaining Failures Leading to Civil Wars

  • Mechanisms of Failure:

    • Information asymmetries where parties have different knowledge and strategic incentives to withhold information.

    • Commitment problems causing mistrust between factions.

    • Changes in relative power dynamic during the conflict.

    • Disputes over disarmament of rebels.

    • Issues involving indivisible goods (e.g., control of oil resources between Sudan and South Sudan).

Rebel Strategies in Civil Wars

  • Insurgency Tactics:

    • Employ guerrilla warfare and asymmetric tactics, leveraging small units that blend in with civilian populations.

    • Strategies include hit-and-run operations focused on penetrating adversarial weaknesses, imposing costs to weaken confidence.

Government Responses to Civil Wars

  • Counterinsurgency (COIN) Strategies:

    • Search and Destroy: Targeting rebel strongholds directly.

    • “Drain the Swamp”: Indiscriminate methods that can result in high civilian casualties, thus potentially losing local support.

    • “Hearts and Minds”: A strategy involving building local trust, improving infrastructure, and seeking local cooperation to identify and counteract rebel forces.

Case Study: Iraq Civilian Casualties

  • Figure 6.2 illustrating estimated civilian deaths due to violence in Iraq from 2003-2017.

  • Monthly fatalities indicating a substantial death toll during the post-invasion years.

  • Data sourced from the Iraq Body Count project.

Using Force against Rebels

  • Approach:

    • Direct action involving special forces to conduct targeted operations, employing covert tactics to reduce civilian harm.

    • Examples of elite units include:

    • Special Air Service (SAS, UK)

    • Delta Force and Seal Team Six (USA)

    • Mista'arvim (Israeli units).

Preventing and Resolving Civil Wars

  • International and Third-Party Involvement:

    • Recent conflicts often require external involvement to mediate and construct durable peace agreements.

    • Addressing commitment problems such as ensuring the safety of demobilized rebels and creating fair institutions is critical.

  • Long-term Strategies:

    • Reducing the likelihood of future civil wars involves international commitments to economic development and democratization efforts.

Readings for Next Meeting (02/24)

  • Assigned Reading: Chapter 6: Pages 278-302.