Saudi Arabia Vehicle Import Analysis 2024

Purpose & Scope of the Executive Report

  • Verify the accuracy of a publicly-circulated infographic that claimed Chinese cars topped Saudi imports in 2024.

  • Base of truth: \text{General Authority for Statistics (GaStat)} detailed customs data delivered by the Zakat, Tax & Customs Authority (ZATCA).

  • Focus year: 2024 (Jan.–Dec., Gregorian).

  • Key commodity universe: “Vehicles” Chapter of the Harmonised System (HS87) plus deep dive on “Passenger Cars” (HS8703).

Principal Questions Raised in the Infographic

  1. Do the charted numbers represent the current reality in the Kingdom?

  2. Has China actually overtaken Japan as the largest vehicle source?

  3. Are private-use cars really shipped from India and Indonesia?

  4. Do well-known brands always arrive from their country of origin, or from third-country production hubs?

Snapshot of Saudi Vehicle Imports (HS87) – 2024

  • Aggregate customs value: \approx 106.8\,\text{billion SAR} (↑ 5\% YoY vs. 2023).

  • Aggregate unit count (all HS87 headings combined): \approx 9.56\,\text{million units}.

  • Asian exporters dominate: 75\% of value.

  • Top-10 suppliers & values (all vehicles, HS2 level):

    • 22.1\,\text{bn} – China

    • 21.6\,\text{bn} – Japan

    • 9.76\,\text{bn} – USA

    • 8.28\,\text{bn} – South Korea

    • 7.34\,\text{bn} – Thailand

    • 6.99\,\text{bn} – India

    • 6.36\,\text{bn} – Germany

    • 3.92\,\text{bn} – Indonesia

    • 3.81\,\text{bn} – Canada

    • 3.62\,\text{bn} – United Kingdom

  • Visual takeaway: China + Japan alone supply >43\,\text{bn SAR} ⇒ \frac{43}{106.8} \times 100 \approx 40\% of total HS87 value.

Internal Composition of HS87 (Value Shares)

  • 70\% – Passenger cars & similar (HS8703).

  • 16\% – Construction equipment, dump trucks, motorcycles, etc.

  • 8\% – Parts & accessories (HS8708, HS8714).

  • 6\% – Tractors, buses, chassis, trailers and miscellaneous.

HS Code Architecture (Quick Reference)

Level

Digits

Meaning

Example

HS2

2

Broad chapter

87 = \text{All road vehicles & parts}

HS4

4

Functional family

8703 = \text{Passenger motor cars}

HS5

5

Saudi analytical regrouping

87032 = \text{Gasoline cars}

HS6

6

Globally harmonised specifics

870323 = \text{1500–3000 cm^3 gasoline car}

HS8+

8–12

National sub-splits

87032311 = \text{Model-year flag, 4×4, etc. (KSA)}

Passenger Cars Deep Dive (HS8703)

Fuel Mix (2024)

  • Gasoline cars: 99\% of value.

    • HS87032 (generic gasoline): largest share.

  • Diesel, hybrid (HS87036) & BEV (HS87038) jointly 1\%.

Imports by Country (Value, HS8703)

Rank

Country

Value (bn SAR)

Share

Avg. Unit Price (SAR)

Units

1

Japan

18.0

27\%

187{,}715

95{,}919

2

China

13.3

20\%

226{,}500

58{,}945

3

USA

6.6

10\%

43{,}431

153{,}466

4

India

6.3

9\%

142{,}378

44{,}161

5

South Korea

6.1

9\%

84{,}648

71{,}900

6

Thailand

6.1

9\%

94{,}952

63{,}765

7

Indonesia

3.8

6\%

57{,}344

67{,}316

8

Germany

3.6

5\%

14{,}591

253{,}047

9

United Kingdom

2.3

3\%

4{,}705

507{,}307

10

Slovakia

1.3

2\%

8{,}100

169{,}933

China vs Japan Verdict

  • Japan still leads by value (27\%), despite China leading by volume (26\% share of units).

  • Much of the “Chinese” volume is global brands (e.g., BMW, Tesla) that merely assemble in China.

India & Indonesia – Reality Check

  • Combined car-import value: 14.8\% of top-10 HS8703 spend.

  • India is #3 source by units; lowest mean CIF price among top-10.

  • Indonesia ships more cars to KSA than the USA (units), with a mean price 14\% higher than China and 7\% below Korea.

Indian Portfolio (2024)

Brand (India)

Units

Dominant Models

CIF Value (SAR mn)

ISUZU

71{,}889

D-Max

2{,}973

HYUNDAI

65{,}922

Accent ( 73\% ), Grand i10 ( 18\% )

5{,}400*

SUZUKI

55{,}879

Dzire, Baleno

2{,}623

NISSAN

46{,}944

Sunny ( 99\% )

541

(*value rounded from text “5.4 billion”.)

Indonesian Portfolio (2024)

Brand (Indonesia)

Units

Dominant Models

CIF Value (SAR mn)

TOYOTA

58{,}070

Fortuner (37\%), Veloz (32\%)

14{,}030

HYUNDAI

33{,}849

Creta (74\%), Stargazer (26\%)

3,800

SUZUKI

45

Carry

–

Spotlight: Hyundai as a Multi-Hub OEM

  • Indonesian plant (Bekasi, West Java) began 2021; organised with LG for local EV battery JV (Karawang).

  • Exports shipped from Tanjung Priok to Jeddah & Dammam.

  • Indian plant (Sriperumbudur, est. 1998) – Hyundai’s first fully integrated site outside Korea; announced 20{,}000\,\text{Cr INR} (≈2.4\,\text{bn USD}) investment to lift EV capacity to >850{,}000 units p.a.

  • Illustrates brands’ strategy to supply KSA from cost-efficient regional hubs, not just HQ country.

Brand Origin vs Production Reality – BMW Example

  • BMW runs a spider-web network; Saudi arrivals (2024 value shares):

    • 22\% – Spartanburg, South Carolina, USA

    • 3\% – San Luis Potosí, Mexico

    • 2\% – Rosslyn, South Africa

    • 1\% each – Germany, UK, Austria, China (Shenyang), Korea, Canada.

  • CKD/contract assembly also exists in Egypt, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. ⇒ country-of-origin ≠ country-of-production.

Accuracy Assessment of the Viral Infographic

Claim

Data Reality

Verdict

“HS87 total = car imports”

HS87 includes trucks, parts, equipment

False – overstates cars by \approx 30\%

“China #1 by car value”

Japan 18.0 bn vs China 13.3 bn

False for value; true for unit count

“No cars come from India/Indonesia”

\approx 14.8\% of HS8703 value from both

False

“Brands import only from origin country”

BMW, Hyundai, Toyota source from 10+ sites

False

Implications & Recommended Actions

  • Communicate corrected figures to media outlet; request reissue with HS8703-specific values.

  • Engage GaStat for granular data at HS6/HS8 to bolster future public releases.

  • Monitor Asian production hubs (India, Indonesia, Thailand, China) as competitive sourcing bases, especially for low-priced gasoline cars and emerging EVs.

  • Track EV-specific plant investments (Hyundai Indonesia, BYD China, BMW Shenyang) to anticipate future fuel-mix shifts.

  • Policy: consider differentiated tariffs or incentives aligned with localisation or emissions goals given 99\% gasoline share.

Key Numerical & Formula Recap

  • Total vehicle import value V_{87} = 106.8\,\text{bn SAR}.

  • Car share S{car} = 0.70 \Rightarrow V{8703} \approx 74.8\,\text{bn SAR}.

  • Asian share = 75\% \Rightarrow 0.75 \times 106.8 = 80.1\,\text{bn SAR}.

  • Gasoline car dominance G = 99\% \Rightarrow V_{gasoline} \approx 0.99 \times 74.8 = 74.1\,\text{bn SAR}.

End of detailed study notes suitable for exam review.