gurr-1993-why-minorities-rebel-a-global-analysis-of-communal-mobilization-and-conflict-since-1945

Overview of Communal Mobilization and Conflict

  • Political Protest/Rebellion

    • Major impetus for political change since 1945.

    • Utilizes data from 227 communal groups globally.

    • Key factors: cultural identity, inequalities, historical loss of autonomy.

    • Political mobilization is influenced by democracy, state power, and institutional changes.

Introduction to Communal Groups

  • Communal Groups: Cultural or religious identity groups without recognized statehood.

    • Major actors in national and international politics.

    • Historical reshaping of maps post-1918.

    • Conflicts arise over the incorporation of ethnic minorities and religions.

    • Dominant groups often see these movements as resistance while subordinate groups invoke collective rights.

Theoretical Framework

  • Lack of Generalizations: Existing evidence on communal conflicts is case-specific.

  • Study Focus: Examines 227 communal groups to identify conditions for political mobilization.

    • Methodological rigor applied to explain cases and research procedures.

  • Theoretical Model: Incorporates deprivation, mobilization, and global system perspectives.

    • Investigates the influence of group characteristics on protest/rebellion actions.

Definition of Communal Groups

  • No Centralized Data: No formal counts or certification of communal groups globally.

  • Group Identity: Open to change; identity can strengthen against external threats.

  • Criteria for Inclusion: Communal groups must suffer systematic discrimination and show political mobilization.

  • Historical Context: Data primarily reflects the world political landscape as of 1990.

Diversity Among Groups

  • Demographic Variability: 227 groups are diverse; not all generalizations will apply universally.

    • Common Dynamics: Similar status concerning state treatment and shared conflict strategies.

    • Categorization into Types: Groups classified as ethnoclasses, ethnonationalists, indigenous peoples, communal contenders, and militant sects.

Model of Mobilization

  • Core Premise: Protest and rebellion are driven by grievances—approached as a blend of relative deprivation and resource mobilization.

  • Indicators of Mobilization: Strong grievances and group identity lead to organized political movements.

  • Three Core Variables: Active grievances, mobilization, and communal political action.

Grievances and Political Action Correlation

  • Historical Loss of Autonomy: A significant factor in mobilization and expression of grievances.

  • Data Operationalization: Uses variables from the Minorities at Risk dataset.

  • Group Mobilization Metrics: Examines grievances around economic, social, cultural, and political rights.

Findings on Contextual Factors Affecting Mobilization

  • International Diffusion Effects: Communal conflicts spread across borders influencing mobilization.

  • Role of Political Systems: Democratic systems provide a framework that facilitates protest, whereas authoritarian regimes often lead to rebellion.

  • Impacts of State Power: Weak states are prone to communal rebellion; strong states can accommodate grievances.

Conclusions

  • Persistent Nature of Grievances: Communal grievances are central to ongoing civil conflicts.

  • Mobilization as Optimized Predictor: Previous mobilization efforts are the strongest indicators for future protests and rebellions.

  • Future Considerations: The interplay of grievances, political contexts, and how they influence communal actions will remain critical to understanding communal conflicts."