Summary of Key Historical Events in the Middle East

The Camp David Accords

  • Key Factors in Middle East Peace

    1. Two-level game:
    • Negotiate with external parties
    • Appeal to domestic actors
    1. Structure of talks:
    • Preferences for bilateral vs multilateral negotiations
    1. Goals of negotiations:
    • Set modest goals as milestones
    • Aim for a comprehensive settlement quickly

  • External Actors and Issue Linkage

    1. Role of external actors:
    • Function as honest brokers with leverage
    • External interventions can fail if local parties are disinterested
    1. Issue linkage:
    • Negotiations can be standalone or linked (e.g., Camp David Accords)

Camp David and the Egyptian-Israeli Treaty

  • Historic Event: November 1977, Sadat visits Israel
  • Negotiations: Launched in Fall 1978 at Camp David
  • Outcome: Framework for Peace includes:
    1. Land-for-peace deal between Israel and Egypt
    2. Negotiations for full Palestinian autonomy in West Bank and Gaza
    3. Role of Jimmy Carter as a crucial facilitator

Incentives for Each Actor

  1. Sadat: Economic aid to address domestic crises and regain Sinai
  2. Begin: Achieved long-term power advantages for Israel
  3. Carter: Acknowledged as peacemaker, limited political gain at home due to Iranian hostage crisis, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and domestic economic issues

Camp David Accords and the Palestinians

  • Sadat's Demands: Linkage to UNSCR 242 for land return, rejected by Begin
  • Begin's Process: Sequential three-stage approach:
    1. Agreement on transitional period
    2. Inclusion of Jordan in talks
    3. Palestinian invitation at the end
  • Autonomy Issues:
    1. No freeze on settlement activity
    2. No control over land or water for Palestinians
    3. No democratic elections promised
    4. Military occupation continues post-treaty
  • Reality: No incentive for Israel to advance Palestinian autonomy after treaty was signed

Impact of the Egyptian-Israeli Treaty

  1. Cold peace characterized by minimal cultural integration
  2. Unpopular with average Egyptians
  3. Diplomatic isolation for Egypt in the Arab world
  4. Reduced military threat to Israel from surrounding Arabs
  5. Palestinian disappointment and resentment
  6. Shift in geopolitical strategy towards the Persian Gulf
  7. Current relations are stable due to mutual goals against extremism

Lebanese Civil War

  • Religious Map:

    • Shi’a Muslims: 35%
    • Sunni Muslims: 29%
    • Maronite Christians: 20%
    • Greek Orthodox: 8%
    • Druze: <5%
    • Compact minorities dominate regions despite being national minorities

  • Challenges of Identity:

    • Competing identities: Arab vs. Lebanese, Muslim vs. Christian, sect divisions
    • Emergence of sectarian identities amid national collapse

The PLO in Lebanon: The Cairo Agreement

  • Significance: PLO establishes operational freedom in southern Lebanon, issued in 1969
  • PLO Authority: Authority over refugee camps, ability to operate attacks into Israel

The PLO in Lebanon: Contributing to a Crisis

  • Outcome of Cairo Agreement led to autonomy for PLO, enabling tax and extortion on Shi’a Muslims
  • Reactions varied: Christians opposed, Sunnis generally supported PLO, Shi’a were conflicted

Lebanon Ready to Collapse

  • Challenges:
    1. Political and economic inequality along religious lines
    2. External disruptions (PLO, Israel) challenging government authority
  • Example: In 1970, military orders from Christian president were resisted by Muslim soldiers

Spark of Civil War

  • Event: April 13, 1975: Assassination of Maronite leader Pierre Gemayel
  • Response: Maronites massacre Palestinian refugees, marking violence escalation

Syrian Intervention

  • Strategy: Flexible support for losing sides, initially aiding Christians to avoid Israeli intervention

Operation Litani, 1978

  • Background: Coastal Road Massacre by PLO leads to Israeli invasion aiming to clear southern Lebanon
  • Results: 1) PLO withdrawal, 2) UNIFIL peacekeeping set up, 3) Occupation by pro-Israeli Christian militia

Israeli Invasion of Lebanon 1982

  • Background: Ceasefire in place, invasion begins June 6, after an attack on the Israeli ambassador
  • Goals of the Invasion:
    1. Support for the Christian government
    2. Destroy PLO to prevent Palestinian state aspirations

Mistaken Assumptions

  1. Historical peace and tranquility of Lebanon overlooked
  2. Weak central government neglected in strategy
  3. Shifted demographics made Christians a minority

US Role and Intervention

  • Timeline: US deploys troops post-assassination of President Gemayel to assist with evacuation of PLO
  • Critique: Questions about autonomy negotiations without Palestinian involvement

Massacre of Palestinian Refugees

  • Event: September 16-18, 1982: Massacre in Sabra and Shatila as retaliation by Christians post-Gemayel assassination

Israeli Army Inaction

  • Questions Raised: Why did the army allow Christian militia into refugee camps? Claims of unknown atrocities and enemy definitions persist

Aftermath and US Military Presence

  • US Goals: Peacekeeping objectives conflict with local dynamics leading to tumultuous military engagement
  • Incidents: 1983 bombings leading to US withdrawal in 1984

The PLO After Beirut

  • Shifting focus post-1982, adopting policies rejecting specific peace plans while keeping avenues for peace open.