4. RECESSIONS UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION

Endowment effect

people value things more when they already possess them

knetsch mug and chocolate

t1- given mug option to trade for candy

t2- given candy option to trade for mug

t3- choose between mug and candy

found 56% in t3 chose mug over candy but only 10% in t2 would trade

loss aversion

explains for the endowment effect

people respond differently to gains and losses with losses impacting people more then gains of the equivalent magnitude

people are loss averse on happiness of recessions maybe greater then the effects of positive growth

SWB and the boom burst cycle

LS is procyclical but LT changes in LS is unrelated to economic growth rate

looking at volidility this can explain why countries with similar economic growth experience different trends in life satisfaction

deneve et al 2018

data on individual SWB from GWP eurobarometer, behavioural risk factor surveillance system, for each data set they regressed SWB against positive and negative economic growth

they found that 10% recession leads to 0.135 SD fall in dependent variable

futher regressions found large negative effect of unemploymet

boom and burst cycle has potential to eradiacte SWB from LT growth

they were unable to fully identify why effects of negative growth were so strong, only partly due to high unemployment, or prehaps psycholigical effects

unemployment

there is a negative relationship between unemployment rate and SWB, unemployed have lower SWB then employed of same age and gender

standard economic theory suggests people get disutility from work but if you loose your job you loose income but gain leisure

clark et al contorlling for income found unemployment still had a negative impact on SWB partly due to

  • loss of sense of purpose and contribution

  • social status

  • self esteem

  • community and identity

  • anxiety about the future

  • lack of routine

  • health

luechinger et al 2010 found a larger effect of unemployment rate on SWB of private sector employees then public sector employees due to security

unemployment vs inflation

traditionaly there is a trade off but what is the optimal trade off?

happiness economcis looks at the combination of unemployment and inflation that maximises SWB

blanchflower et al

looks at european data set regression with individual SWB as dependent variable and independent varibles being current inflation rate, unemployment rate, controls for country year and individual characteristics and economic growth rate

they found that high inflation has a negative effect on countries average SWB but effects are small comapred to unemployment

a 1% change in unemployment has a 5% change in inflation

but monetary policy prioritises inflation too much