What the Soldier Is Protecting: The Functions and Social Utility of Motivated Reasoning

TThe Principle of Chesterton's Fence: The author, Julia Galef, adopts a rule of thumb for advocating change known as "Chesterton’s Fence." This concept was proposed by British writer G. K. Chesterton in a 19291929 essay.   - The Metaphor: Imagine a road with a fence built across it for no apparent reason. A "naive reformer" might say the fence is stupid and unnecessary and seek to tear it down immediately.
  - The Counter-Argument: Chesterton argued that if you do not understand why the fence was built in the first place, you cannot be certain it is safe to remove it.
  - The Thoughtful Reformer: A more sophisticated reformer requires an understanding of the fence's purpose. Only after being able to explain the use of the fence—and then proving why that use is no longer relevant or is outweighed by other factors—should one be allowed to destroy it.
Application to the Mindset Debate: This book serves as a proposal for a reform: shifting from the "soldier mindset" (motivated reasoning) to the "scout mindset."
- To be a "thoughtful reformer," the author acknowledges the need to understand what function the soldier mindset serves.
- Before abandoning motivated reasoning, we must ask: What are we losing? What important benefits does it provide?

The Six Categories of Motivated Reasoning Benefits

Experts across various fields—including psychologists, behavioral economists, evolutionary psychologists, and philosophers—have identified several functions of motivated reasoning.
Galef categorizes these into six overlapping areas:
  1. Comfort (Avoiding unpleasant emotions)
  2. Self-esteem (Feeling good about ourselves)
  3. Morale (Motivating ourselves for hard tasks)
  4. Persuasion (Convincing ourselves to convince others)
  5. Image (Choosing beliefs to look good to others)
  6. Belonging (Fitting into social groups)

Comfort: Avoiding Unpleasant Emotions

The "This is Fine" Phenomenon: Represented by a popular 20162016 internet cartoon of a dog in a hat sitting in a room full of flames, soldier mindset facilitates denial to avoid fear, stress, and regret.
Comforting Narratives: We often adopt worldviews that we refuse to scrutinize, such as:
  - "Everything happens for the best."
  - "People get what's coming to them."
  - "The darker the night, the brighter the stars."
Sour Grapes Reasoning: Based on Aesop's fable "The Fox and the Grapes," where a fox decides unreachable grapes are sour anyway. This is used to cope with rejection or failure:
- Example: A first date doesn't return a call, so we conclude they were actually a bore.
- Example: A lost job offer leads to the conclusion that the hours would have been brutal regardless.
Sweet Lemons Reasoning: Convincing ourselves that a persistent problem is actually a blessing.
- Historical Example: In 18561856, an obstetrician argued that labor pains were wisely allotted by God to promote spiritual growth and strength, as there was no medical way to avoid them.
- Modern Application: Now that epidural anesthesia exists, we no longer view labor pain as a "sweet lemon." However, we apply this logic to aging and death, suggesting they give meaning to life. Leon Kass, former chair of the President's Council on Bioethics under George W. Bush, suggested that mortality might be a blessing that allows for the ability to love.
Pessimistic Comfort: Relief found in giving up.
- If a class is too hard, concluding "this is pointless" provides an immediate rush of relief because the effort to try is no longer required.
- Disaster Preparation: Eric Klinenberg, a sociology professor at New York University, notes that people often cite "fate" or things being "out of control" to avoid the stress of preparing for earthquakes or tsunamis.

Self-Esteem: Feeling Good About Ourselves

Flattering Narratives: We protected our egos by reframing unflattering facts.
  - Example from Election: The character Tracy Flick tells herself that being lonely is a side effect of being "destined to be special."
  - Common Reinterpretations:
    - Lack of wealth is attributed to "integrity."
    - Lack of friends is attributed to people being "intimidated."
    - Messy desks are seen as a sign of "creativity."
    - Low SAT scores lead to the belief that standardized tests only measure "test-taking ability."
Belief Adjustment over Time: A late 19901990s study tracked college students' GPA expectations versus their actual outcomes. Students who consistently underperformed their expectations eventually shifted their beliefs to conclude that "grades aren't that important after all."
Socioeconomic Beliefs: Wealthier individuals tend to credit hard work and talent for success. When economist Robert Frank suggested in a New York Times column that luck is a factor in success, Fox business commentator Stuart Varney took personal offense, citing his own journey of coming to America with nothing 3535 years ago and succeeding through risk-taking.
Masochistic Epistemology: A term coined by YouTuber Natalie Wynn (ContraPoints).
- Self-Protection via Negative Beliefs: Unlike "self-enhancement" (boosting the ego), "self-protection" involves assuming the worst to avoid a painful surprise.
- Example: It feels safer to assume people think you are unattractive than to hope they think you are pretty and be proven wrong.

Morale: Motivating Ourselves to Do Hard Things

Irrational Optimism: Common in the tech culture of San Francisco. It is used to launch into daunting challenges and persevere.
- Numerical Disconnect: In one survey, entrepreneurs estimated their startup's success probability at Po0.7Po0.7 (77 out of 1010), with 1/31/3 of respondents giving themselves a 10/1010/10 chance.
- The Baseline Reality: The actual baseline rate for startup success is closer to 11 in 1010.
Strategies for Maintaining Morale:
  - Downplaying Baseline Odds: Telling oneself success is purely a matter of "trying hard enough."
  - Selective Focus: Reassuring oneself with optimistic features (e.g., "we have a network of backers") while ignoring pessimistic ones (e.g., "we are young and inexperienced").
  - Commitment to the Plan: To act with conviction, decision-makers avoid considering downsides.
  - Nils Brunsson Study (19701970s): A sociologist embedded in a Swedish company observed that meetings to "decide" on a project were actually about building enthusiasm. They anchored on one option immediately and only raised points in its favor to generate the energy needed to overcome future difficulties.

Persuasion: Convincing Ourselves to Persuade Others

Social Benefits vs. Emotional Benefits: While comfort, self-esteem, and morale are for self-deception, persuasion, image, and belonging are aimed at deceiving others by first deceiving ourselves.
Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) and "Working Up": LBJ would practice arguing a position with passion until he believed it with utter certainty.
- His press secretary, George Reedy, noted LBJ had a "fantastic capacity to persuade himself" that the convenient truth was the only truth.
Professional Self-Deception:
- Moot Court Study: Law students randomly assigned to a side naturally came to believe their side was morally and legally right.
- Professors and Theories: A researcher might convince herself her theory is more original than it is to sell it to the public, leading her to accidentally misunderstand competing theses or attack "straw man" arguments.
Everyday Persuasion: We want others to believe we are good people, valuable employees, or ambitious. Belief in these claims makes the outward persuasion easier.
- LBJ Quote: "What convinces is conviction."

Image: Choosing Beliefs that Look Good

Impression Management and Signaling: Beliefs function like clothing (an analogy from Robin Hanson). We ask, "What kind of person would believe this?"
Belief Archetypes:
  - Nihilism: May make one seem "edgy."
  - Optimism: May make one seem "likable."
  - Moderation: May make one seem "mature."
Ideological Fashion: People adopt ideas like "socialism is better than capitalism" or "machine learning will change the world" to remain fashionable in their social circles.
Defensible Explanations: We adopt altruistic explanations for selfish behaviors.
- Example: Opposing neighborhood construction because of its "environmental impact" rather than admitting a desire to keep property values high.
Strategic Ignorance/Purity: A student named Dana gained social favor by pretending she could not even comprehend the concept of jealousy, leading others to view her as "pure."

Belonging: Fitting Into Social Groups

Group Consensus: All groups have expected shared values. Dissent can lead to alienation or, in extreme cases (religious communities), total loss of family and support.
Rational Deference: Deferring to a group is not always motivated reasoning; it is often a wise heuristic.
- XKCD Reference: If everyone jumps off a bridge, it is more likely the bridge is on fire than that everyone went crazy simultaneously.
Motivated Non-Investigation: Motivated reasoning occurs when you would not even want to know if the consensus is wrong.
- Katja’s Story: Growing up in a "hippie" town, Katja felt physically "sick" when she encountered valid economic arguments for logging companies that contradicted her community’s environmentalist orthodoxy.
Group Loyalty and Skepticism:
- Gamers: People who identify strongly as "gamers" are more skeptical of studies showing video games are harmful.
- Catholics: People with high solidarity with the Catholic Church are more skeptical of sexual abuse accusations against priests.
Tall Poppy Syndrome: In some cultures, ambition or self-regard is punished. Members avoid high self-esteem to ensure they fit in.

Conclusion: Why Standard Fixes Fail

Ineffectiveness of Training: Common solutions—teaching cognitive biases, training in critical thinking, or educating in logic—rarely work long-term.
The Protective Function: These methods fail because motivated reasoning is not used out of lack of knowledge; it is used to protect vital needs (acceptance, motivation, self-image).
The Risks of Soldier Mindset:
  - Backfiring in Persuasion: In the moot court study, students who were the most confident in their side’s merits were less likely to win the case, likely because they failed to prepare for rebuttals.
  - Scout Alternatives:
    - Instead of denying flaws for self-esteem, one could notice and fix them.
    - Instead of suppressing disagreement for belonging, one could find a community that fits better.
Final Question: To address the second half of Chesterton's fence, we must ask if we can achieve the same results (morale, belonging, etc.) as effectively without using the soldier mindset.