Black Lives Matter: Support Surge and Decline

The article examines the stability of Americans’ racial attitudes following George Floyd’s death, focusing on support for Black Lives Matter (BLM).
It analyzes data from Civiqs, an online polling company, to track changes in support among different demographic groups.

Following George Floyd’s death, there was a net increase in favorability toward Black Lives Matter across the electorate.
Support for the movement peaked immediately after Floyd’s death but swiftly declined.
The drop in support is attributed to shifting attitudes among Republicans and white Americans.

Republicans initially showed stronger support for Black Lives Matter after Floyd’s death compared to earlier in 2020.
This support rapidly declined, with Republicans becoming less supportive of BLM than they were at the beginning of 2020.
$Net\ Support\ Change\ vs.\ Jan.\ 1,\ 2020:\ Republicans = -10\ percentage\ points$

White Americans also showed increased support for BLM following Floyd’s murder.
However, this sentiment was short-lived, and support eventually plunged.
White people are now less supportive of Black Lives Matter than they were before George Floyd’s death.
$Net\ Support\ Change\ vs.\ Jan.\ 1,\ 2020:\ White = Negative$

Hispanic or Latino and Black racial groups show sustained higher net support for the movement.
$Net\ Support\ Change\ vs.\ Jan.\ 1,\ 2020:\ Democrats = +10\ percentage\ points$

The surge in support reflected shock and disapproval over George Floyd’s death, rather than a broad embrace of the BLM political movement.
George Floyd’s death was documented by a video that was viscerally upsetting and morally unambiguous, leaving little room for alternative narratives.
The event occurred during a global pandemic, providing an unusually attentive and emotional audience.

The decline in support, especially among Republicans and white Americans, mirrors the increased politicization of the issue by elites.
Republican politicians quickly shifted attention away from the actions of the police officer to those individuals protesting the injustice.
Donald Trump’s statement, “When the looting starts, the shooting starts,” is cited as an example of this politicization.
This phrase finds its roots in the racial unrest of the 1960s, another period during which volatility in white Americans’ attitudes toward racial justice was observed.

Nonwhite racial groups all display sustained higher net support for the movement.
If a broad “people of color” identity is becoming politically potent, there may be more instances of cross-racial coalition building.
Such coalition-building may prove essential in counteracting the backlash toward BLM observed among some whites and Republicans.

Democrats exhibit higher, and relatively stable, support for B.L.M.
This support influences Democratic presidential candidates to stress the importance of racial justice.
White support for B.L.M. would be even lower were it not for white Democrats.

More than 30 states have passed more than 140 new police oversight and reform laws since the killing of George Floyd.
These reforms have met with Republican opposition, or in some cases, legislative efforts to quell future protest.
On Capitol Hill, a Democratic police reform bill met resistance from Republicans, and a Republican reform measure failed due to opposition from Democrats.

Black Lives Matter is a visible and influential social movement, and shifts in public opinion toward it are worth understanding.
The significance of a “reckoning” depends on whether support for Black Lives Matter ultimately translates into policy.
Scholars have considered the parallels between the summer of 2020 and the tumultuous summers of the 1960s.
The lasting legacy of the 1960s is found in its landmark legislation rather than the changing of hearts and minds.

Some have wondered whether support for B.L.M., especially among white people, is genuine or merely virtue-signaling.
The volatility of the polling suggests there is reason to be skeptical.
Racism as a social problem is rooted in institutional systems rather than individual values.

Transforming support for B.L.M. into more enduring political change is crucial.
Whether or not this effort will involve substantial numbers of white Americans remains to be seen.