Analysis of Racial Polarization and Realignment in American Politics

Racial Realignment and Polarization in American Politics

The potential shift of people of color away from the Democratic Party, termed a “racial realignment,” is a significant topic in American politics.
This shift was noticeable in the 2020 presidential election, with Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans showing slightly increased support for Donald Trump compared to 2016.
Current polling indicates potentially larger shifts towards the Republican Party in 2024.

Some commentators, like David Leonhardt, argue that a rightward shift among people of color suggests race is becoming less important in politics and Trump's appeal.
Leonhardt suggests that Trump’s appeal to “working class” people of color indicates class, rather than race, explains voting behavior.
Bill Maher has echoed similar sentiments.
The argument fails to distinguish between racial group affiliation and attitudes on racial issues.
While racial group polarization may be decreasing, polarization about race is increasing.

Research indicates that Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans do not consistently hold liberal or progressive views on race and racial issues.
These groups do not necessarily share a common identity or sense of solidarity.
Louis DiSipio's research on Latinos showed diverse views, even on issues directly affecting their ethnic group.
- For example, around 45% of Latino U.S. citizens favored making English the national language.
The 2020 American National Election Study revealed varying opinions among Latinos regarding immigration levels:
- 36% wanted to increase immigration.
- 44% wanted to maintain the same level.
- 20% wanted to decrease it.
While Black Americans generally perceive racial inequality differently than white Americans, some still believe individual effort can overcome inequality.
- In the 2020 ANES, 13% of Black respondents agreed with the statement that “if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites,” and 15% expressed a neutral attitude.
Lack of solidarity among minoritized groups can arise from perceived competition for economic resources or insecurity about one’s status within the broader American community, as shown by research from Efrén Pérez, Crystal Robinson, and Bianca Vicuña.
Understanding the politics of race and ethnicity requires examining people's beliefs about racial groups and issues, and how these translate into political choices.

Analysis of the 2020 presidential election and the Cooperative Election Study (CES) data reveals how racial attitudes translated into political choices.
The CES data confirms the shift toward Trump among voters of color.
Both the 2016 and 2020 CES surveys included questions regarding racial attitudes:
- Agreement with the statement: “White people in the U.S. have certain advantages because of the color of their skin.”
- Agreement with the statement: “Racial problems in the U.S. are rare, isolated incidents.”

People of color are more likely than white respondents to acknowledge advantages for white people and to disagree that racial problems are rare.
However, significant portions of people of color do not hold these views:
- In 2020, approximately 11% of Black people, 33% of Latinos, and 24% of Asian Americans either disagreed that white people have an advantage or expressed no opinion.
- Between 19-38% of these groups agreed that racial problems are isolated or expressed no opinion.
Voters of color holding these views were more likely to shift to Trump between 2016 and 2020.
Trump gained votes among Black, Latino, and Asian voters who disagreed or strongly disagreed that white people had an advantage, or had no opinion on the matter.
Trump also gained votes among those who believed racial problems were rare and isolated.
A study of Latino voting patterns by Bernard Fraga, Yamil Velez, and Emily West showed Trump gained votes among Latinos with conservative views on immigration and criminal justice policy.
Racial attitudes appeared to matter more in 2020 than in 2016.
Even as the electorate became less polarized in terms of race, it became more polarized in terms of racial attitudes.

Pew Research Center surveys from 2019 and 2022 were analyzed to understand trends in party identification among Latinos and their views on equal rights for Black Americans.
The 2019 survey included the question: “When it comes to giving Black people equal rights with white people, do you think our country has gone too far, not gone far enough, or has it been about right?”
- 48% of Latino respondents said “not gone far enough.”
- 41% said “been about right.”
- 10% said “gone too far.”
Approximately half of Latinos felt no further action was needed to promote equal rights for Black Americans.
A 2022 Pew survey identified 528 Latino respondents who were interviewed in both surveys, enabling a comparison of changes in partisanship between 2019 and 2022 based on their 2019 views on Black Americans’ equal rights.
This methodology guards against the possibility that Latinos changed their racial attitudes due to changes in partisanship.

In 2019, almost 70% of Latinos identified with or leaned toward the Democratic party; by 2022, this decreased to about 64%.
Republican partisanship increased by roughly the same amount.
Latinos who shifted to the GOP expressed positive views of equal rights for Black people, stating either that enough had been done or that the country had gone too far.
Republican gains are concentrated among racially conservative Latinos.
Racial attitudes are becoming more predictive of partisanship.

The analysis makes descriptive, not causal, claims, showing the characteristics of people of color shifting to the Republican Party but not definitively proving causality.
It is premature to attribute shifts among voters of color solely to “class” or “working class” status, as measures of class are intertwined with attitudes, particularly on racial issues.
If voters of color are shifting toward the Republican Party, it does not diminish the importance of race; rather, it highlights the significance of racial attitudes.
Racial attitudes are becoming more strongly correlated with political attitudes among both white voters and voters of color.