POLITICS- mass movement of people
AOS2: Contemporary Crises - conflict, stability and change: MASS MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE
KK8: The rise of populism
Populism: emphasises the idea of “the people” in juxtaposition to “the elite”
“The elite” = those holding positions of power in politics, economy, media. “The people” excluded from their power due to socio-eco status.
Populists share a suspicion of and hostility towards elites.
Regarding the mass movement of people, right-wing populist politicians in particular tend to argue that political instutitons and ‘globalist’ elits have encouraged unsustainable levels of inward migration.
A pillar of their campaigns has been to lower immigration to (supposedly) preserve traditions, culture and nationally identity.
This reaction against globalist elite can be seen in europe through:
Giorgia meloni (italy): led her populist fratelli d’italia (brothers of italy) party to electoral success in 2022, based largely on an anti-immigration campaign.
Marine Le Pen (France) – who has finished runner-up in the past two French presidential elections and will likely contest a third in 2027 on a strong anti-immigration platform.
The state remains the most powerful actor:
Since the mid-20th century, there has been ongoing discussion about European integration, with figures like Winston Churchill in 1946 calling for a “United States of Europe” (European Commission, 2021).
However, events such as:
the 2010s Eurozone financial crisis,
and the migration crises of 2015–16 and 2023
have slowed momentum toward deeper integration.
Populist politicians have contributed to this shift by:
Promoting Euroscepticism—opposition to deeper EU control, especially due to concerns about mass immigration.
Influencing major decisions like the UK’s 2020 exit from the EU (Brexit).
Populist and right-wing leaders argue against supranational EU control:
Marine Le Pen (France, 2023): “It shows that more and more countries within the European Union contest the way it works… and hope that we can again master a migration that is considered by many Europeans as both massive and anarchic.”
Santiago Abascal (Spain, 2023): “More and more Europeans are demanding in the streets and at the ballot box that their nations, their borders and their rights be defended.”
In contrast, leaders like EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen continue to stress integration and cooperation as essential for handling regional crises.
This growing divide reflects a wider debate over federalism, where power is shared between supranational EU bodies and individual nation-states—many of which are increasingly reasserting their sovereignty.
KK7: ABILITY OF ACTORS TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
They depend on their capacity to influence others = POWER
POWER (ability to influence):HARD OR SOFT - military, economic, diplomatic, cultural, political, technological.
Responses to crises from regional grouping = dependent on POWER and INTERESTS of its member states
State will only sponsor an effective solution from a regional grouping that does not threaten sovereignty
States: able to decide policies towards migrants in line with what key state decision-makers perceive as aligning best with national interests
Non-state actors: doesn't possess sovereignty over territory = lack the forms of power that would enable them to respond effectively to a crisis.
Regional grouping:
Regional grouping: geographically close states = response to crises is entirely dependent on power + interests of its members states.
States aim to maintain sovereignty = only sponsor effective solution from a regional grouping that does not threaten sovereignty
2023 EU meeting in Spain: Hungary + Poland refused to sign a joint declaration aimed at speeding up approval of the pact on migration and asylum bc issue with the requirement that all member states has to contribute to the redistribution of refugees within eruope.
→2023: Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, opposing acceptance refugees + asylum seekers, stated: “there is no chance to have any kind of compromise and agreement on migration”
DESPITE objection of H+P, the Pact on Migration and Asylum was accepted by the European Parliament and Council in December 2023. However, both these states would assume the role of EU
CONSEQUENCES OF DEFYING:
However, the EU does have some power to influence the actions of member states. EG. across a three-year period from 2021–23, the EU withheld access to common funds for both Hungary (€7 billion) and Poland (€36 billion), this time for eroding accepted democratic principles.
In 2020, the European Court of Justice (an EU body) ruled that Hungary had acted illegally in response to asylum seekers by failing ‘to fulfil its obligation to ensure effective access to the procedure for granting international protection’ (Emmott and Dunai, 2020). However, in this case, no financial penalty was imposed.
States
Widely known to be the “central” actors in global politics
UN Charter enshrines the concept of territorial integrity and the political independence of states. Therefore, states are largely able to decide on their policies towards migrants in line with what key state decision- makers perceive as aligning best with national interests.
German: perceive that accepting large no. of migrants = improve regional r/s +regional standard. WHEREAS
Italy: perceive this as threat to security + eco prosperity. Regardless, in both cases the state has been able to decide for itself which policy direction to take.
Thus, ability to respond effectively depends on perspectives + interest
Democratic political systems: require support of public opinion to reatin legitmacy = obliged to reconsider policies if want to stay in power.
EG. Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s desire to respond effectively to this crisis by welcoming migrants has been met with opposition from the populist anti-immigration party, the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD). Initially, this posed no challenge to his legitimacy as Germany’s leader; however, in 2023 the AfD steadily improved its performance in regional elections and opinion polls, and in 2024 significantly increased the number of seats it held following European Parliament elections.
→ prompted calls from local mayors and regionalleaders for Scholz to change course on his asylum policies, and for the German government to make it more difficult for asylum seekers to settle in Germany.
Non-state actors:
Dont possess sovereignty over territory = lack the forms of power that would enabl them to respond effectively to a crisis.
HOWEVER: some possess economic power to fund humanitarian responses to crises. EG. MSF’s search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean Sea.
Many have large membership bases + global reach via social media = grant them significant degree of cultural power, expressed through their ability to spread their message + sympathy for people in need of protection.
2023, 20 non-state actors (including MSF) issued a joint statement condemning Italy’s decree that aimed to obstruct search-and-rescue operations. The joint statement called upon Italian politicians to reject the law and EU institutions to investigate the legality of the law.
2019: amnesty internation & Human rights watch - both submitted a third party intervention to the european court of human rights (ECHR), arguing that Italy shared responsibility for alleged abuse of migrants by Libyan authorities.
→ Submission argues that Italy breached its obligations under the european convention on human rights by cooperating with libya to enable its coast guard to intercept people at sea and take them back to libya (where they were exposed to torture +other abuses).
→ joint submission to the ECHR “italy shares responsibility for libya abuses against migrants: third party intervention filed at europen court of human rights”. Amnesty Internation,2019.
→ applies pressure to actions of states + regional groupings but has not resulted in changes to policy.
The discussion isnt about managing the crisis but about closing borders
Italy: state of emergence, PM giorgia Molony: political and social costs
Hungary: consistently anti immigration “forced multicrulturism”
Poland rejuects compusory intakes
Greece: islands turned into holding cells
Germany: right wing anti immigration policy
France:
National rally party
Straining resources
Threatening cultural identity
EU:
Brexit: claimed immigrants took jobs and lowered wages
Evidence suggests jobs and economic growth happened because of immigration
Wave of far-right attitudes
EU parliament 25% far right seats
KK6: CHALLENGES TO RESOLUTION
Inability to resolve the causes of migration:
Drivers of migration not been addressed (causes) hence challenges
Discrimination:
experience restrictions on political + religious freedoms becoming more prevalent.
2024 freedom house (independent org that monitors democracy & human rights): 2023 18th consecutive yr in which global freedom declined.
Environmental/economic challenges:
Challenge global efforts to minimise causes+consequences of CC.
Force people to flee place of residence
2023 UNHCR global trends highlights the increasing no. of people living in areas exposed to higher than normal climate related hazards.
+ refugee convention only accounts for those displaced due to conflict/discrimination NOT enviro/eco challenges
Difficulties enforcing international law
Institutions of global governance establish the rules, norms and legal agreements, seeking to encourage the cooperation of states. HOWEVER, these institutions have
not been delegated sufficient power to effectively enforce these international laws.
States breach int law:
Contradict national interests
Encroach upon their sovereignty or perceive law as discriminatory (pro-western bias)
The institutions created to monitor violations have limits as well:
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) can only adjudicate disputes b/w
states + cannot enforce its decisions.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) can only target individuals; it does not
have universal support and lacks the power to make arrests.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) can issue sanctions + approve
military action against states, but the veto power (ability to reject decision/proposal)of its permanent five members often prevents resolutions from being passed.
Many states violate international law without facing consequences, showing its limitations.
Despite this, international law plays an important role in creating global consensus, guiding crisis responses, and legitimising actions against uncooperative states.
It also empowers non-state actors and citizens to hold governments accountable.The Refugee Convention reflects these dynamics, and scholars are actively debating how to reform international laws to better address the needs of migrants, states, and host populations.
Conflicting national interests
Effectively responding to mass movement of people require cooperation + consensus among global actors.
Some states perceive that refugees/asylum seekers pose a threat to national interests such as security & eco prosperity.
Other states perceive that responding with generosity towards migrants upholds their humanitarian obligations, thus improves national interests such as regional relationships + economic prosperity.
Lack of cooperation due to conflicting interest pose challenge -> delay progress of diplomatic resolutions, diminish their effectiveness and/or prevent the enforcement of agreed norms, rules or legal agreements.
EG. The Economist highlights conflicting national interests among European states, (i.e.Italy and Germany). The full article also highlights how the perceived threat that migrants pose to many states prevents those states from accepting refugees and asylum seekers even when a large worker shortage exists across Europe.
KK5: Processes used to address the crises of mass movement (Diplomacy & international law)
Diplomacy: refers to the negotiations that take place between global actors, usually in response to a crises, and can be conducted through formal diplomatic channels and regular planned meetings, as well as impromptu discussions.
International law: refers to a body of rules established by custom or written legal agreements that are accepted as binding upon the international community and that apply to all global actors; written legal agreements, such as treaties, are only binding to those who give consent through explicit ratification.
Diplomacy:
2023: European Union pact on migration and asylum
The EU had to balance its response to the mass movement of people to reflect its desire to uphold international laws and respect human rights BUT also ensure the stability and security of its member states.
Involved the European Parliament, European commission and 27 EU member states(Shared responsibility between member states)
Three key elements:
Lowering the no. of new arrivals
Better dispersing of migrants among member states managed by EU agency for asylum (EUAA)
Return or resettle migrants to states, third countries, outside the EU.
EU-Libya-Italy: memorandum of understanding on migration (2017)
An EU sponsored and agreement b/w italy and libya
Libya received 42 million (euro dollars) in 2022 from EU and Italy to fund its coast guard operations that actively find migrant vessels and return them to ibya
EU claims that this initiative is aimed at assisting the Lbyan government’s ability to ‘save sleeves at sea’ (european commission, 2023)
Once migrants are brought back to libya, held in detention camps run by militants. NGOs, such as Medecins Sans Frontieres, have compiled evidence of human rights in these camps.
10-17 years for migrants at the camp
European union bilateral deals
Pact on migration & asylum goes some way to managing the flow of migrants into europe, but not enough to appease the states that receive the most asylum seekers, such as those on europe’s southern boundary (greece and italy).
EU has been looking beyond its borders, to third countries, to reduce the no. of migrants heading to europe in the first place
This process of shifting responsibility of the management of refugees and asylum seekers to third countries has become known as “externalisation”.
Deals have been made with turkey (2016), libya (2017) and Tunisia (2023)
EU-Tunisia: memorandum of understanding (2023)
EU agreed to a memorandum of understanding regarding a strategic partnership with Tunisia.
Inittiually the EU pledge 150 million euro dollars to support the Tunisian economy, focusing on trader, agriculture, investment and migration. The funding was allocated to combat anti-smuggling operations, reinforcing border management and speeding up the return of asylum seekers whose applications are denied
Up to 1 billion euro dollars in additional loans and financial support was pledged for future years.
1951 REFGUEE CONVENTION
A process for states to recognise people who enter their territory without prior permission
Refugees a form of recognitions and certain rights
States with an exclusion process and ability to determine whether individuals are refugees.
3 important components:
Definiton of a refugee
Asylum seekers must be given a fair opportunity to present their case for refugee status and should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to life.
Minimum standard for the treatment of refugees (right of housing, work, education): live dignified +independent life.
EU Dublin regulation (ONLY TALK ABOUT IT IN RELATION TO CURRENT EVENT)
International law agreed upon by EU member states
Aims to determine which member state must take responsibility for processing asylum seekers
Initially adopted in 1990, demanded that asylum seekers must be processes by the first member state they reach
Laster iteration of law: Dublin 3 (2013) aims to better disperse migrants according to family considerations +member state capacity
International maritime laws
Non state actors often cite rhese two international maritime law as legal grounds for their serach and rescue operations:
The UN convention on the law of the sea (UNCLOS), which contains a legal requirement (article 98) for vessels to rescue ‘persons in distress’ at sea.
The international convention for the safety of life at sea (SOLAS), contains a legal requirement for contracting states to provide search and resume operations around their coast. (states must have search and rescue operations).
QUESTIONS:
Using one specific example, explain how diplomacy can be used to address the crisis of the mass movement of people.
Diplomacy plays a crucial role in addressing the human crisis behind the mass movement of people, where families, children, and individuals often flee war, poverty, or persecution in search of safety. An example is the European Union’s 2023 Pact on Migration and Asylum, where 27 EU member states, along with the European Commission and Parliament, came together through diplomatic negotiations to share responsibility for protecting vulnerable lives. This pact wasn’t just about numbers or borders, it was about finding a fairer, more coordinated way to help people in desperate situations. It aimed to reduce dangerous journeys, ensure migrants are more evenly distributed among EU countries, and provide safer pathways for return or resettlement. Thus, diplomacy made it possible for nations with different interests to find common ground and respond with both compassion and structure.
Identify one international law relevant to the mass movement of people.
One international law relevant to the mass movement of people is the 1951 Refugee Convention, which was adopted on 28 July 1951. It establishes the rights of individuals who are forced to flee their home countries due to persecution, conflict, or violence. The convention defines who qualifies as a refugee and outlines the legal obligations of states to protect them. Importantly, it upholds the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning refugees to countries where they face serious threats. As of 2024, the Convention has 149 state parties, making it one of the most widely accepted human rights treaties in the world.
Outline two obligations of states who are party to this international law.
Non-refoulement (Article 33):
One obligation of states who are party to the 1951 Refugee convention is that they are prohibited from expelling or returning a refugee to a territory where their life or freedom would be threatened. For example, under this obligation, EU member states should not return asylum seekers to Libya, where detention camps have been documented by NGOs such as Médecins Sans Frontières (2023) to involve abuse, indefinite detention (up to 10–17 years), and human rights violations.
Fair asylum procedures:
Another obligation of states who are party to this international law is that they must ensure that asylum seekers are given a fair and efficient process to present their case for refugee status. This includes providing access to legal aid, interpreters, and appeal processes. The EU Dublin III Regulation (2013) reinforces this by requiring asylum claims to be processed by the most appropriate member state, considering family ties and the capacity of states to provide protection.
Select one actor profiled in the ‘Responses’ section. For this actor, evaluate the
extent to which their response to the mass movement of people reflects their
obligations under the relevant international law.
The European Union’s response to the mass movement of people reflects a partial compliance with international law, particularly the 1951 Refugee Convention and the Dublin Regulation (last revised in 2013). The 2023 EU Pact on Migration and Asylum introduced mechanisms for distributing asylum seekers more evenly and streamlining application processes, showing some effort to meet its obligations to provide fair asylum procedures and avoid refoulement.
However, the EU has increasingly relied on externalisation policies that shift responsibility to third countries. Under the EU-Libya-Italy memorandum of understanding (2017), €42 million was paid in 2022 to fund Libya’s coast guard, which intercepts migrant boats and returns people to Libya—where many face abuse in detention centres. This practice directly undermines the non-refoulement principle, as migrants are sent back without access to a fair asylum process, in violation of the 1951 Convention.
When considering the extent to which an actor’s response reflects their obligations
under international law, evaluate how this response has then contributed to political
stability and/or change.
The EU’s response has brought short-term political stability, especially after the 2015 refugee crisis, when over 1 million migrants arrived, straining borders and fuelling anti-immigration parties in states like Germany and Italy. By reducing arrivals through deals with Libya (2017), Turkey (2016), and Tunisia (2023), the EU has appeased domestic concerns and preserved cohesion among member states.
However, outsourcing border control to countries with poor human rights records has triggered legal and ethical backlash, damaged the EU’s humanitarian reputation, and risked instability in partner states. While the strategy has helped lower sea arrivals by over 90% between 2015 and 2023, it has also highlighted the EU’s struggle to balance security and humanitarian law in the long term.
KK4:RESPONSES from states
States:
Despite the efforts of regional groupings to coordinate the responses of member states
and institutions of global governance to establish agreed norms and standards for the responses of states, ultimately the political concept and reality of sovereignty empowers states to have the final decision regarding the policing of their borders.
Three categories:
resettlement:
Refers to the process by which those who have had their claim for refugee status accepted come to remain and build a life in another country
Most durable solution for refugees and asylum seekers
Less than 40 states have official resettlement programs
UNHCR: approx 96,000 refugees offciallt resettled 2023 globally (most in US - 61000, germany-approx 5000, france-approx 3000).
Local integration
Refers to states allowing asylum seekers and refugees entry into states w/o necessarily verifying their claim to refugee status or offering any official resettlement scheme.
UNHCR: in 2022 70% of refugees were ‘hosted’ by neighbouring states:
Turkey: 3.6 million refugees
Iran: 3.4 million
Germany: 2.1 million
For many refugees + asylum seekers being hosted = refugee camp, poor conditions.
Germany’s approach to local integration has been relatively extensive and well managed.
Germany’s system of ‘tolerated stay’ for asylum seekers (known as Duldung) ensures asylum seekers are provided with free transport, accommodation, food and other necessities while they await a decision on whether they can settle permanently. Following this, asylum
seekers must participate in integration courses, including German language courses and locally run work schemes and community service. Despite this, many asylum seekers report difficulties being accepted into German society and often wait many years to be granted permanent residency
Repatriation
Refers to any policy that prevents migrants from entering a state with the intention that they return to their place of origin.
EG. Italy’s policy to restrict the ability of NGO search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean Sea.
2023: PM Giorgia Meloni issued a decree that effectively criminalised the search-and-rescue operations of NGOs. Her government argued that these operations were seen as a ‘pull factor’ for migrants and facilitated irregular migration and people smuggling. In practice, the decree requires that NGO vessels immediately proceed to a designated port, often a distant port, after each rescue, which delays search-and-rescue operations and prevents these vessels from conducting multiple rescues. Non-compliance results in fines of up to €50 000 and a lengthy detainment of rescue ships.
Regional groupings
European Parliament
Key institutions of the EU: 720 members, directly elected by EU citizens
Pact on migration and asylum
Lowering the number of new arrivals
Better dispensing of migrants among member states
Return or resettle migrants
Temporary protection directive
EU’s response to the Ukraine crisis; controversial because it is seen as prioritising Ukraine over other countries
A residency permit for up to 3 years
Guaranteed access to the asylum procedure
Free movement between EU member states
Access to employment, social welfare, medical care, education, accommodation +banking services
Non-state actors
Humanitarian NGOs (MSF, red cross) can assist refugees and asylum seekers in their search for a safer place to live via the following method:
Investigating issues of concern
Raising public awareness to express their dissatisfaction with official policies
Lobbying states and insitiyes of global governance
Providing direct humanitarian aid to those in need
HOWEVER: ngos lack the power to override the sovereignty of states
QUESTIONS:
States - national interests
IGGs - global cooperations
TNCs- making profit
NGOs - humanitarain
KK3: the impact of political actors’ interests on the crisis of
mass movement of people
Regional grouping
In the second half of the 20th century, regional groupings and integration expanded as states sought greater security and economic cooperation. The European Union (EU) originated after World War II as the European Coal and Steel Community, aiming to make war between European nations economically unthinkable. By 2013, the EU had grown to 28 member states, though this number dropped to 27 after the United Kingdom withdrew in 2020.
Originally focused on economic integration—especially in trade, competition, agriculture, and transport—the EU has since taken on broader challenges, including climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and migration. In response to these global crises, the EU’s role has expanded to include safeguarding the security of its member states and citizens.
In 2024, the EU announced its latest five-year strategic agenda with three main priorities:
A free and democratic
A strong and secure
A prosperous and competitive
The 2024–2029 EU Strategic Agenda emphasizes a comprehensive approach to migration and border management, balancing security and stability for member states with a public commitment to international law and human rights. However, the mass movement of people has led the EU to prioritize protecting its borders and maintaining order. In 2023, Hans Leijtens became the executive director of Frontex (the EU’s border agency), vowing to restore trust in EU migration policy and ensure that operations respect international law. This highlights the ongoing tension between humanitarian obligations and national security concerns.
States
States typically prioritise sovereignty, security, economic prosperity, and regional relationships, but their definition of the national interest is often shaped by political agendas and changing circumstances. While some leaders publicly support humanitarian ideals, their true motives may focus more on internal stability or political gain.
Many states see benefits to accepting refugees and migrants, such as improving regional relationships, upholding international law, and filling labour shortages. According to OECD research (2024), migrants improve productivity, boost tax revenue, and are generally less likely to commit crimes than native-born citizens (Kaladelfos and Finnane, 2018). Migrant communities also help build long-term social and economic ties between countries.
Germany offers a strong example of migration aligned with national interest. Motivated by its historical responsibility, Germany enshrined the right to asylum in its constitution and has become the third-largest refugee-hosting country and the second-largest UNHCR donor.
Conversely, other states perceive refugees as security risks or economic burdens, using this narrative to justify restrictive policies. Securitisation theory explains how political leaders construct migration as a threat, rather than responding to actual danger.
For instance, Italy, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, responded to surges in asylum seekers in 2015 and 2023 by focusing on border control and economic stability. Her government has:
Blocked Mediterranean crossings and rescue operations
Deported those deemed security risks
Charged asylum seekers around €5000 to avoid detention
Meloni argues that economic revival depends on birth rates, not immigration—demonstrating how migration policy can reflect domestic political strategy over humanitarian responsibility.
Non state actors
Unlike states, non-state actors—particularly NGOs—do not have to balance national interests with humanitarian concerns. Their focus is usually on specific issues like human rights, allowing them to prioritise the needs of refugees and asylum seekers.
NGOs typically engage in:
Advocacy: campaigning for refugee rights, often aligned with social movements
Service provision: offering shelter, medical care, rescue operations, and help with refugee status processes.
Since 2015, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has been active in the central Mediterranean, providing search-and-rescue services and medical care during these missions, driven by a humanitarian commitment to prevent deaths at sea.
David Miliband “The refugee crisis is a test of our character” TED, april 2017
“Our duty to strangers”
2016, 65 million displace people. 2025, 109 million people displace: exponential
Lebanon 1 in 4 people are refugees
Long term displacement: on avg 10 years
Displacement is a trend, complex crisis
Pope francis “the globalisation of indifference”
Solution 1: refugees need to get into work in the counrties where theyre living and the countries where theyre living need massive economic support
Solution 2: education for kids is a lifeline, not a luxury
Solution 3: financial assistance for necessities
Solution 4: refugees need new start
“Test of our humanity”
“Empathy and altruism are 2 of the foundation of civilisation”
Moral compass
“Power of democracy as a refugee of dictatorship”
Individual call to action:
— if you're an employer, hire refugees
— educate family and friends
— donate to charities
— if you're a citizen, vote for politicians who will put in practise solutions for refugees
“on doit” → “one must” help strangers, innate in us.
Democratisation of power “leadership comes from below, not above”.
DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES OF GLOBAL ACTORS
REGIONAL GROUPING:
European Union is a political and economic union with many unique features, comprising 27 member states, with a combined population of around 450 million people and 15 per cent of the world’s GDP.
Treaty of Lisbon: Treaty of Lisbon is the international agreement that, since 2009, has formed the constitutional basis of the EU; it formally outlines the various mechanisms used to make EU policy decisions and includes binding requirements on member states to protect certain human rights.
Article 78:the EU’s commitment to international law and human rights by stating that ‘the Union shall develop a common policy on asylum … ensuring compliance with the principle of non-refoulement (means the forcible return of refugees or asylum seekers to a country where they are liable to be persecuted).
Ursula von der Leyen became European Commission President in 2019.
Since then, she has aimed to unify Europe during major external crises, particularly:
The war in Ukraine.
Increasing migration into the European Union.
Her leadership emphasises:
The importance of upholding international law.
A strong commitment to human rights.
The need for internal stability within the EU.
In 2023, von der Leyen launched the Pact on Migration and Asylum, which focuses on:
Creating a “common system” for managing migration across the EU.
Ensuring EU member states share responsibility for migration fairly.
Balancing solidarity with border countries (e.g., Italy, Greece).
Preventing illegal migration through more coordinated and consistent policies.
States:
All EU member states have committed to the Treaty of Lisbon, which promotes liberal democratic systems and respect for human rights.
However, states differ in how they manage the mass movement of people, largely due to their political leadership and national history.
Germany:
Views refugees and asylum seekers as vulnerable people in need of protection.
The right to asylum is a constitutional right in Germany.
This stance is shaped by the concept of Vergangenheitsbewältigung (“overcoming the past”), Germany’s effort to come to terms with its Nazi history and the Holocaust.
In 2015, during the Syrian refugee crisis, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel stated:
“If Europe fails on the question of refugees, it won’t be the Europe we wished for” (The Economist, 2015).Merkel promoted a Willkommenskultur (“welcome culture”) for refugees.
In 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, current Chancellor Olaf Scholz told parliament:
“It is still completely unclear how many women, men and children from Ukraine will seek refuge with us. All we know is that there will be many… The refugees are welcome here with us” (The Local, 2022).
Italy:
In contrast to Germany, Italy places greater emphasis on national security and economic stability than on humanitarian or legal obligations.
Italy has become a major destination for asylum seekers crossing the Mediterranean from North Africa.
In 2023, the central Mediterranean route became the busiest migration path into Europe.
Italy received the highest number of arrivals, with over 155,000 migrants entering the country in a 12-month period (Santos, 2024).
Non state actors:
Maintain singular focus on the rights of refugees +asylum seekers bc no need to balance public concerns over secuirty/economic prosperity
NGO: Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), or ‘Doctors Without Borders’, assist those migrating to Europe, particularly those making the sea journey across the Mediterranean to states such as Italy.
MSF (2024) opposes policies aimed to restrict the movement of people, declaring that ‘we firmly place ourselves in solidarity with those on the move and with those who assist them’.
Since 2015, MSF has operated or been involved with eight search-and-rescue vessels in the Mediterranean, providing search-and-rescue capacity as well as medical care to migrants. Médecins Sans Frontières provides assistance to populations in distress, to victims of natural or man-made disasters and to victims of armed conflict … irrespective of race, religion, creed or political convictions.
ACTIVITY C QUESTIONS:
A WORD that captured your attention or struck you as powerful
Ursula von der Leyen: solidarity
,Médecins Sans Frontières:‘Doctors Without Borders’,
b PHRASE that moved, engaged or provoked you
c SENTENCE that was meaningful to you, that you felt captures their perspective on
migration.
Ursula von der Leyen, as President of the European Commission, often emphasizes border security, legal migration pathways, and cooperation with third countries to manage the mass movement of people. Her perspective typically reflects a political and strategic approach, aiming to balance humanitarian responsibilities with the interests of the European Union. In contrast, Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) focuses on the humanitarian impact of migration, advocating for the protection and dignity of displaced people regardless of political borders. While both recognize the challenges of mass migration, von der Leyen prioritizes policy and control, whereas Médecins Sans Frontières prioritizes immediate medical aid and human rights. Their perspectives differ in focus — political management versus humanitarian action — but both acknowledge the urgency and scale of the crisis.
PACT ON MIGRATION AND ASYLUM
The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted in June 2024, establishes a unified framework for managing migration and asylum across the European Union. It is built on four key pillars: securing external borders, streamlining asylum procedures, fostering solidarity among member states, and integrating migration into international partnerships. The Pact introduces measures such as robust screening processes, an updated Eurodac database for tracking asylum applications, and a permanent solidarity mechanism to distribute responsibilities among EU countries. Implementation is set to begin after a two-year transition period, aiming to create a fair, efficient, and sustainable migration system that upholds European values while addressing the diverse challenges faced by member states.
Short term causes of mass movement of people
Armed conflict
2022 report of UNHCR’s global trend: 9 of the top 10 places that refugees originate from are involved in ongoing armed conflict
Report on armed conflict: Ukraine
Ukrainian refugees fled their homes after Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022. UNHCR estimates that there are 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe
That have been internally displaced and 560,200 globally, fleeing to the relative safety of neighbouring countries incl Poland, Hungary.
Poland: Of the more than 1.6 million refugees to whom Poland granted temporary protection, "only" less than a million of them actually remain in the country.
47.2 million border crossing of Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in feb 2022.
What are the main global trends in forced displacement (2022) from UNHCR?
108.4 million forcibly displaced globally at end of 2022 as result of persecution, conflict, violence, HR violations.
1 in 6 are displaced
35.3 million refugees
62.5 million internally displaced people
5.4 million asylum seekers
5.2 million in need of international protection
114,300 refugees resettled
52% originated from three countries: syrian arab republic, ukraine, afghanistan
2.6 million new claims: USA largest recipient of new individual applications
6 million displace people returned
76% hosted in low and middle income countries
2025: Ukrainian refugee crises: UNHCR
UNHCR estimates that there are 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe/ ⅓ of total population
1.2 million Ukrainian refugees on German territory (2025)
Missile and rocket attacks have caused widespread death, destruction of homes and businesses and severely damaged energy infrastructures across Ukraine.
The energy crisis is disrupting public access to water, electricity, heating, healthcare, education and social protection.
More than 2.5 million homes across the country – 13% of the housing stock – have been damaged or destroyed, leaving many Ukrainians in damaged homes or in buildings ill-prepared for life-threatening freezing temperatures. As the war continues, humanitarian needs are multiplying and spreading.
An estimated 12.7 million people in Ukraine will need humanitarian assistance in 2025.
Since start UNHCR: delivered 410,000 emergency shelter kits + materials in immediate aftermath of attacks & provided psychosocial support to 300,000 affected people + repaired more than 37,000 war-damaged homes.
“Daunting task that will not happen overnight” for the war-damaged homes and huge no. of displaced people after “three years of hostilties and bombardment” resulting in loss of loved ones, jobs, etc. “they will need all our support” - UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said 2025.
2023 support for Ukraine:
As part of the UN Regional Refugee Response Plan for the Ukraine Situation, UNESCO launched the “Support for Ukrainian Refugees through Media” project since February 2023 for 12 months, assisting governments in the Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia in their refugee responses through working with national and local broadcasters.
Australia's response
11,400 ukrainians arrived in Aus since conflict began.
Aus government issued vistor visas for ukrainians fleeing the war and later offered temporary protection visas and now permanency for those eligible. More than 4,700 Ukrainians were offered temporary humanitarian stay visas between April and July 2022, and a further 1,000 people were able to apply for Bridging Visas to remain in Australia temporarily.
Refugee Council of Australia (RCOA) CEO Paul Power says this response has broken new ground in Australia’s reaction to humanitarian crises. “Responded quickly to the crisis, allowing Ukrainians with close links to Australia to enter the country on temporary visas. For the first time in many years, this enabled people fleeing a conflict to travel safely, knowing that Australia would receive them at a time of great risk and uncertainly”
Discrimination and persecution
Discrimination:
Discrimination refers to the process of making unfair distinctions or prejudgements between or about different types of people, such as those based on skin colour, religion and/or ethnic background.
Persecution:
Persecution refers to prolonged oppression or unjust treatment through the excess use of authority, and may extend beyond discrimination to include explicit punishment for political dissent.
Afghanistan
discrimination is the driving force behind those fleeing persecution and looking for political and religious freedoms they do not enjoy at home.
an estimated 23.7 million Afghans - over half of the population, including women and girls - are in need of humanitarian and protection assistance. (2024)
2021: 5.8 million fled Afghanistan in the three years after the withdrawal of US troops in August 2021 + bc subsequent takeover by the Taliban. w/o support of US military, taliban quickly overrun.
Most afghans registered in neighbouring Iran (approximately 3.7 million) and Pakistan (approximately 2 million) (UNHCR,2024b).
In late 2023, Pakistan announced that all ‘undocumented foreign nationals’ would have to leave by 1 November 2023 – a decision affecting approximately 1.7 million Afghan refugees (Al Jazeera,2023). Another 3.25 million people have been internally displaced within Afghanistan, according to the UNHCR (2024a).
The UN mission in Afghanistan has documented numerous human rights violations.
CAUSE OF MASS MOVEMENT (WOMEN RIGHTS)
Taliban labelled a terrorist organisation, has history of discrimination and repression of women, girls and minority religious and ethnic communities such as Hazaras (Amnesty International, 2024).
Imposed harsh restrictions on women's rights to education, employment, free speech and movement and dress.
The Taliban have prohibited most girls from attending secondary school, banned all women from attending and teaching at universities, and prevented women from working.
In December 2022, the group prohibited women from working at local and international nongovernmental organisations (NGOs). Amnesty International has reported a drastic increase in the number of women arrested for violating discriminatory policies, such as rules requiring women to only appear in public with a male chaperone and to completely cover their bodies.
The Taliban’s takeover has also wiped out gains in Afghans’ standards of living that were made over the two decades after the U.S. invasion, according to the UNDP. In an October 2022 report, the agency said that almost all Afghans were living in poverty.
The economy has shrunk by up to 30 percent since the takeover, and an estimated seven hundred thousand jobs have been lost. More than 90 percent of the population has been suffering from some form of food insecurity. Exacerbating the crisis is a pause in aid by some countries and international organisations, which had been the lifeline of the economy and public health sector.
SUMMARY
In 2021, the Taliban regained control after the U.S. troop withdrawal.
The Taliban imposed harsh restrictions, especially targeting women, girls, and minorities (e.g. Hazaras).
Girls banned from secondary and university education.
Women prohibited from working, especially in NGOs and teaching.
Strict rules on clothing, movement, and needing a male chaperone.
In December 2022, the group prohibited women from working at local and international nongovernmental organisations (NGOs). Amnesty International has reported a drastic increase in the number of women arrested for violating discriminatory policies, such as rules requiring women to only appear in public with a male chaperone and to completely cover their bodies.
Widespread human rights violations documented by the UN and Amnesty International.
Fear of persecution, discrimination, and repression forced many to flee.
The Taliban’s takeover has also wiped out gains in Afghans’ standards of living that were made over the two decades after the U.S. invasion, according to the UNDP. In an October 2022 report, the agency said that almost all Afghans were living in poverty.
The Afghan economy collapsed, shrinking by up to 30%.
The economy has shrunk by up to 30 percent since the takeover, and an estimated seven hundred thousand jobs have been lost. More than 90 percent of the population has been suffering from some form of food insecurity. Exacerbating the crisis is a pause in aid by some countries and international organisations, which had been the lifeline of the economy and public health sector.
700,000 jobs lost, and over 90% of the population faces food insecurity.
Foreign aid paused, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
Over 5.8 million Afghans fled the country since 2021 (mainly to Iran and Pakistan).
3.25 million people remain internally displaced within Afghanistan.
In late 2023, Pakistan ordered 1.7 million undocumented Afghan refugees to leave, further increasing displacement.
Economic factors
While the movement of people in search of a more prosperous life has long been
a factor in migration, oftentimes rapidly developing economic crises can quickly
lead to mass movements of people.
Venezuela: cause of mass movement of people
CAUSE:
Economic collapse due to decades of poor governance and corruption.
Overdependence on oil and mismanagement of the oil industry, despite having the world’s largest oil reserves: in recent years oil exports costs ⅔ of government budget, in 2024 58%.
Failing production: inadequate investment and maintenance - lowest levels in decades of oil output 2024 - in 2023 increased by 12% due to easing of US sanctions on country's oil and gas sector.
Soaring debt. Venezuela has an estimated debt burden of $150 billion or higher.
Hyperinflation. Annual inflation skyrocketed to just over 130,000 percent in 2018, and though it has since slowed, it remained at 190 percent in 2023, according to the central bank.
Venezuela’s GDP shrank by roughly three-quarters between 2014 and 2021; in 2018 year-on-year inflation peaked at 130 000 per cent (Roy and Cheatham, 2024) when most Western economies aim for between 2 and 3 per cent, and by 2019, 96 per cent of households were listed as living in poverty (Statista, 2022).
EFFECT:
6.1 million people have fled to neighbouring states such as Colombia and Peru to escape poverty, because of the spiralling cost of living and high unemployment rates.
Nearly 7.9 million people have left Venezuela in search of protection and a better life.
This economic collapse, coupled with international sanctions and a poor response to the COVID-19 pandemic, led to a devastating humanitarian crisis. Venezuelans experienced severe shortages of basic goods such as food, drinking water, fuel and medical supplies,causing them to flee.
Many migrants face unemployment, exploitation, or discrimination in host countries.
Environmental challenges
Intensifying effects of cc: increased severity of natural disasters (fire, floods) but also reducing crop yields and driving food insecurity = behind rising numbers of people migrating.
The climate crisis and human displacement are increasingly interconnected. Not only did climate-related disasters trigger more than half of new reported displacements in 2022, but nearly 60 per cent of refugees and internally displaced people now live in countries that are among the most vulnerable to climate change.
The UNHCR (2024): in 2022, 84 per cent of refugees and asylum seekers fled from highly climate-vulnerable countries.
natural disasters in 2022 triggered a record 32.6 million internal displacements, most cannot claim refugee status bc failure to meet criteria mentioned earlier in the Refugee Convention of 1951.OF which 98 per cent were caused by weather-related hazards such as floods, storms, wildfires and droughts, according to the International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).
70 per cent of all refugees live in countries neighbouring their own. Whether fleeing conflict or disaster, people prefer to remain as close as possible to home and family. Those forced to abandon an area severely affected by climate change are also less likely to have the means to move long distances
‘Climate refugees’ not recognised in international law, displacement solely in the context of climate change or disasters is not covered by the 1951 Convention, it can apply when an individual’s risk of facing persecution or violence is increased by climate change. EG. northern Cameroon in 2021, hundreds of people were killed and tens of thousands fled to neighbouring Chad following violence between herders and fishermen that was sparked by dwindling water resources linked to climate change.
Regional refugee laws may also provide protection. Refugee definitions in the Organization of African Unity Convention and Latin America’s Cartagena Declaration both include those seeking refuge due to events “seriously disturbing public order”, which could include climate-related events.
1951 Refugee Convention
The most significant international law relating to the movement of people is the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees.
Sets to define: what a refugee is, what rights refugees have, and crucially the responsibilities of states.
1951 Refugee Convention offers protection only to those fleeing war, violence, conflict or persecution who have crossed an international border to find safety
The criteria for refugee status are defined in Article 1A(2) of the 1951 Refugee
Convention relating to the Status of Refugees as a person who:
“owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion … is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to
return to it”
UNHCR (2024) states that under international law, ‘an asylum-seeker may not be sent back to
their country of origin until their asylum claim has been examined in a fair procedure, and is entitled to certain minimum standards of treatment pending determination of their status’.
“Illegal Migrant”: UNHCR - illegal = asylum is rejected and then fails to comply with an expulsion order, or for other reasons has no legal permission to stay in a host state. A migrant, asylum seeker or refugee with a legitimate claim to protection has a legal right
to remain in a state until their claim is processed.
CHALLENGES of 1951 REFUGEE CONVENTION IN HELPING CLIMATE REFUGEES:
Importantly, many of these people cannot claim refugee status, as they fail to meet the criteria in the Refugee Convention of 1951. Most climate-related displacement occurs within countries, while the Refugee Convention offers protection only to those who have crossed an international border, and only to those fleeing war, violence, conflict or persecution – not natural or climate related events. Unfortunately, climate refugees are not protected by the Convention.
Most climate-related displacement occurs within countries, while the Refugee Convention offers protection only to those who have crossed an international border, and only to those fleeing war, violence, conflict or persecution – not natural or climate related events.