Climate Change and Global Action

Page 1: Introduction

• Lecture Title: Climate Change and Global Action

• Presenter: Giorgio Ricchiuti

• Affiliation: QMUL, October 29th, 2024

Page 2: Today's Lecture Outline

• Key Topics:

  • Forward-looking government planning

  • International agreements and strategy coordination

  • The net-zero race

  • Focus on EU strategies

  • Global Actions: Triggers for global action and barriers

  • Vulnerability

  • EU Government responses to disasters

Page 3: Forward-looking Government Planning

• Definition and purpose of forward-looking government planning in addressing climate change.

Page 4: Policy Options for Climate Change

• Command and Control Regulation: Specific technologies and performance standards (e.g., emissions limits).

• Market-based Instruments: Use price incentives (e.g., taxes, subsidies, cap-and-trade systems).

• Information-based Policies: Mandatory disclosure and labeling (e.g., energy certification).

• Public Spending/Lending: Government investment and support through development banks.

Page 5: International Agreements and Strategy Coordination

• UNFCCC: Established in 1992; aims to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations.

• COP Conferences:

  • Kyoto Protocol (COP3, 1997)

  • Copenhagen Conference (COP15, 2009)

  • Paris Agreement (COP21, 2015)

  • Sharm el-Sheikh (COP27, 2022)

Page 6: Paris Agreement Objectives

• Limit global temperature rise to below 2°C, and pursue efforts for 1.5°C.

• Enhance adaptation to climate change impacts and promote resilience.

• Align finance to facilitate low GHG development pathways.

Page 7: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• Decentralized Approach: Countries set their own NDCs without a global agreement.

• Assessment: Every five years via Global Stocktake.

• Current objectives:

  • EU: Reduce GHG emissions by 55% by 2030.

  • China: -65% CO2/GDP by 2030.

  • India: -45% emission intensity by 2030.

  • US: -50/52% GHG emissions by 2030.

Page 8: The Net-Zero Race

• Concept: Achieving a balance between emissions and sequestration.

• Growth of Net-Zero Targets: Numerous pledges made by countries, regions, and corporations.

Page 9: Emission Gap Concern

• Current NDCs are insufficient to bridge the gap between actual emissions and targets needed for climate goals.

Page 10: European Strategy

• European Green Deal: A comprehensive strategy launched in 2019.

• Climate Neutrality: Commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050.

• Legally Binding Targets: 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030.

Page 11: EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)

• Covers 27 EU states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway.

• Compliance by approximately 10,000 stationary installations.

• Emission Coverage: CO2 from various sectors, including energy and aviation.

Page 12: EU ETS Phases and Structure

• Participation History: Three phases from 2005 to present, currently in the 2021-2030 phase.

• Cap-and-Trade: Review of annual cap and reduction targets.

Page 13: Carbon Revenue Allocation

• Minimum 50% of carbon revenues directed towards climate and energy-related initiatives.

• Programs such as Innovation Fund and Modernisation Fund to support low-carbon technologies.

Page 14: EUA Price Dynamics

• Fluctuation of EU allowance prices impacting market behavior and compliance rates.

Page 15: EU ETS Reform Proposals

• Reform Strategies:

  • Increase reduction factor.

  • Include maritime sector in scope.

  • Implement Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Page 16: Conclusions on Forward-Looking Government Planning

• Importance of implementing climate change mitigation policies.

• Multiple options available for governments to engage effectively in climate action.

Page 17: Global Actions Overview

• Introduction to global responses to climate change challenges.

Page 18: Triggers for Global Action

• Signatures of Climate Deals: Analysis of participation across regions in climate agreements.

Page 19: Research Questions on Global Action

• Explore the effects of political economy on low carbon transition and conditions for sustained action.

Page 20: Influences on Countries' Climate Action Preferences

• Factors affecting preferences include emissions growth, participation rates, and specific national characteristics.

Page 21: Source of Heterogeneity

• Identifies vulnerability, GDP per capita, fossil fuel rents, and political institutions as influential factors.

Page 22: Heterogeneity Index

• Creation of a preferences index; its correlation with climate actions.

Page 23: Temporal and Spatial Preferences for Action

• Variability of climate action preferences across different contexts.

Page 24: Results Overview

• Simulated model results vs actual participation and emission levels.

Page 25: Participation and Emissions Data

• Analysis of the relationship between estimated parameters of participation and emissions.

Page 26: Peer Pressure Post-2019

• The impact of peer pressure on countries' climate action responses.

Page 27: Analytical Results

• Outcomes based on the interplay between peer pressure, bias against action, and heterogeneity.

Page 28: Introduction to Vulnerability

• Understanding vulnerability and its implications for climate action.

Page 29: Vulnerability Defined

• Vulnerability stems from exposure to climate hazards and adaptive capacity differences across nations.

Page 30: Research Questions on Vulnerability

• Investigate the relationship between vulnerability and climate actions.

Page 31: Vulnerability and Pledges

• Comparison of vulnerability indices across signatories and non-signatories of climate accords.

Page 32: Vulnerability and Legislation

• Examination of the link between vulnerability and legislation aimed at mitigation.

Page 33: GHG Growth and Vulnerability

• Overview of average GHG growth rates in relation to vulnerability indices.

Page 34: Vulnerability and Climate Outcomes

• Analysis of GHG growth per income group and vulnerability correlation.

Page 35: Results on Vulnerability and Climate Action

• Evidence indicates that increased vulnerability is associated with diminished climate action efforts.

Page 36: EU Governments' Responses to Disasters

• Overview of governmental responses in the face of climate disasters.

Page 37: Motivation for Research

• Increased frequency and intensity of climate disasters as potential motivators for action.

Page 38: Evidence on Public Concern

• Unexpected climate disasters impact public concerns but lack evidence for increased mitigation laws.

Page 39: Case Study: Hurricane Sandy

• Examining Hurricane Sandy's impact on climate change legislation and public perception.

Page 40: Research Overview

• Study of disaster shocks and their effects on climate legislation across 17 Western European countries.

Page 41: Climate Change Theory

• Differentiation between mitigation (emissions reduction) and adaptation (behavioral changes).

Page 42: Trade-offs Between Mitigation and Adaptation

• Discussion of resource constraints impacting legislative focus post-disaster.

Page 43: Theoretical Framework

• Establishes a theoretical basis for understanding the relationship between disasters and legislation.

Page 44: Data and Methodology

• Details of data sources regarding climate disasters and corresponding laws.

Page 45: Methodological Approach

• Identifying years of significant disaster shocks and their analysis.

Page 46: Disaster Frequency Data

• Summary of disaster occurrences between 1980 and 2020.

Page 47: Extreme Disaster Count

• Specific examples and statistics indicating the years and countries of extreme disaster occurrences.

Page 48: Additional Extreme Frequency Data

• Further statistics confirming disaster occurrences above specific statistical deviations.

Page 49: Extreme Disaster Count (Cont.)

• Continuation of analysis regarding extraordinary disaster frequency.

Page 50: Rationale for Western Europe Focus

• Justification for studying Western Europe based on the region's policy history and socioeconomic factors.

Page 51: Method Used

• Explanation of the difference-in-differences methodology applied in the study.

Page 52: Impact of Climate Disaster Shocks

• Visual representation of the impact of climate disaster shocks on cumulative legislation.

Page 53: Adaptation Laws Impact

• Visual outcomes indicating the increase in adaptation laws after climate disaster shocks.

Page 54: Conclusions from Research

• Findings suggest disaster shocks negatively influence mitigation law enactment but increase adaptation law measures.

Page 55: Acknowledgments

• Thank you for participation. For more information, contact via provided email.