U.S. Drone Warfare and the Operation Neptune Spear

Transition from Conventional Military Action to Drone Warfare

• The killing of Nek Mohammed in $2004$ represented a fundamental shift in United States strategy in Pakistan, moving from the attempt to apprehend and detain militants to a policy of destroying them.
• This transition is characterized as the shift to a "kill, not capture" approach, which was initiated under the George W. Bush administration.
• The deployment of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs), or drones, allowed the United States to circumvent the risk of conventional military casualties on the ground.
• Prior to drones, the Pakistani military was forced to engage in high-risk ground maneuvers, entering towns with tanks and armored vehicles while facing intense fire from targets and their loyal supporters.
• In many conventional scenarios, the targeted individual would escape while ground forces were pinned down or engaged in combat.
• Drones provided a method to strike from above with impunity, eliminating the risk of ground-based retaliation against the assailants.

The Escalation of Drone Strikes under the Obama Administration

• Although drone operations began under George W. Bush, the vast majority of American drone strikes in Pakistan occurred during Barack Obama's first term.
• The annual rate of strikes skyrocketed during this period, making armed drones the primary symbol of Obama's policy toward Pakistan.
• This policy represented a broader strategic move away from high-risk combat missions that placed American troops in physical danger.
• While these attacks were effective in wearing down Al Qaeda fighters in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), they resulted in significant civilian casualties within those communities.
• Data from the animation creators at Pitch Interactive highlights the disparity between civilian deaths and high-value target (HVT) deaths:
  • Total estimated deaths: over $3300$.
  • High-profile targets: $52$ individuals, representing less than $2\%$ of the total death toll.
  • Established civilian adults and children: approximately $20\%$ of the fatalities.
  • Ambiguous fatalities (neither confirmed as combatant nor civilian): $2565$ deaths, or over $75\%$ of the total.
• In the specific case of the strike that killed Nek Mohammed, there were five adults killed (including Mohammed) and two children killed. Only Mohammed was a confirmed HVT; the status of the other four adults remained ambiguous.
• For over $98\%$ of the total death toll ($3298$ people), the United States has not definitively established that the victims were taking up arms against the U.S. in the Global War on Terror.

Counterarguments and Justifications for Drone Usage

• Proponents of drone strikes, including some Pakistani journalists from the FATA, offer several justifications for the policy:
  • Reduced Destruction: Drones are argued to be less destructive than the alternative of Pakistani ground forces using machine guns, artillery, and armored vehicles.
  • Effectiveness: Drones are seen as the only consistent method for targeting the top echelon of militant leadership, who otherwise escape conventional ground raids.
  • Proximity as Complicity: There is an argument that those killed in proximity to HVTs may not be totally innocent, as they are often family members or associates who provide assistance or are aware of the risks of being near wanted figures.

Operation Neptune Spear: The Raid on Osama bin Laden

• In early $2011$, the CIA identified a potential hideout for Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Northwestern Pakistan—a location notably outside the FATA region.
• The target lived in a large, shielded compound and remained indoors, making visual verification difficult. CIA analysts estimated a $60\%$ to $80\%$ probability that bin Laden was present based on patterns of daily life (e.g., an unidentified man walking in the courtyard for exercise).
• President Obama opted against a drone strike for several reasons:
  • A massive explosion would leave a crater, making it impossible to identify the body and prove bin Laden's death.
  • If the target was not bin Laden, the strike would have resulted in the death of an innocent family without any intelligence gain.
• The mission, code-named Neptune Spear, was carried out on May 2, 2011 (local time) by Navy SEAL Team 6.
• For legal and diplomatic reasons, the SEALs were temporarily reclassified as CIA assets, as the U.S. military was not formally authorized to conduct military actions inside Pakistan.
• The raid was conducted without the prior knowledge or permission of the Pakistani government due to fears that bin Laden might be tipped off by complicit local officials.
• Mission Logistics and Execution:
  • Two Blackhawks and two Chinooks flew $151$ to $160\,miles$ from Jalalabad, Afghanistan, to Abbottabad.
  • The force consisted of $23$ to $25\,members$ of SEAL Team 6.
  • One Blackhawk helicopter lost lift and performed an emergency crash landing, clipping its tail rotor on a wall. It was later demolished by the SEALs to prevent salvaging.
  • The SEALs blasted through walls to enter the compound, losing the element of surprise.
  • The code name for bin Laden was "Geronimo." The report "Geronimo, EKIA" (Enemy Killed in Action) confirmed his death.
  • The entire raid lasted approximately $38\,to\,40\,minutes$.
  • Bin Laden's body was recovered along with hard drives, CDs, and paper files. He was subsequently buried at sea from an aircraft carrier.

The Salal Incident and the Collapse of US-Pakistan Relations

• Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan reached an all-time low following the bin Laden raid and the subsequent Salal incident on November 26, 2011.
• In the Salal incident, U.S. troops in Afghanistan accidentally veered near the border and engaged in a firefight with Pakistani ground forces, mistaking them for Afghan insurgents.
• Despite communications from Pakistani officers, American air support (including an AC-130 gunship, two F-15 jets, and two Apache helicopters) killed $24\,Pakistani\,soldiers$ at two border posts.
• The Pakistani government described the attack as a grave breach of sovereignty and a violation of international law.
• Political and Logistical Retaliation by Pakistan:
  • Closure of Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC): Pakistan shut down the vital overland supply routes used by the U.S. military to reach Afghanistan.
  • Airbase Eviction: The U.S. was ordered to vacate the Shamsi airbase, which was used for drone operations, within $15\,days$.
  • Diplomatic Boycott: Pakistan boycotted the major diplomatic summit in Bonn, Germany.
• In July $2012$, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a formal apology: "We are sorry for the losses suffered by the Pakistani military."
• Following the apology, the GLOC were reopened, but the relationship remained transactional and deeply guarded, mirroring pre-$9/11$ tensions.