The Electoral College

The Electoral College.

Overview of Electoral College

Definition and Function of Electoral College

  • Definition of Popular Vote:

    • The total number or percentage of votes cast for a candidate across any geographic area (state, nation, county, etc.).

  • Clarification:

    • The nationwide popular vote does not determine the presidency; the Electoral College does.

    • A candidate can win the popular vote but lose based on the Electoral College tally.

Historical Context: Popular Vote Margins of U.S. Presidents since 1824

  • 1824: John Quincy Adams – margin -10.4%

  • 1828: Andrew Jackson – margin +12.3%

  • 1960: John F. Kennedy – margin +0.2%

  • 2000: George W. Bush – margin -0.5%

  • Other examples:

    • Franklin D. Roosevelt had a +17.8% margin in 1936.

    • Barack Obama had +7.3% in 2008 and +3.9% in 2012.

    • Donald Trump - margin -2.1% in 2016 and Joe Biden +4.5% in 2020.

  • Source of data: Dave Leip - U.S. Election Atlas, Statista.

Electoral College Process

  • Overview:

    • The Electoral College consists of 538 electors.

    • A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

    • The number of electors per state is determined by the total number of Senators and Representatives.

    • Each state has a minimum of three electors.

    • All electors from a state typically vote for the winner of the state's popular vote (except Maine and Nebraska).

  • Constitutional Basis:

    • Established by the U.S. Constitution (Article 2, Section 1, Clauses 2 and 3).

Detailed Steps in the Electoral Process

  1. Electors Nominated:

    • Electors are predominantly selected at state party conventions and their names are submitted to the state's election officials.

  2. Election Day Voting:

    • Voters cast ballots for a slate of electors representing their choice for president. Elector names usually do not appear on the ballot.

  3. Electoral Votes Tallying:

    • The slate of electors for the candidate receiving the most votes in each state is appointed, resulting in all electoral votes from that state going to them (exceptions in Nebraska and Maine).

  4. Majority of Electoral Votes Determines Winner:

    • A candidate requires a majority of 538 electoral votes (at least 270) to be elected president.

    • If no majority is reached, the House of Representatives elects the president and the Senate elects the vice president.

  5. 2020 Example:

    • Reference example of the New York electors for 2020.

Electoral Strategy and State Types

  • Safe States:

    • States that reliably vote for one political party, e.g., California, New York (Democratic) and Louisiana, Mississippi (Republican).

  • Swing States:

    • States competitive between parties, capable of voting for either party, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania (Blue Wall), and Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina (Sun Belt).

  • Importance:

    • Electoral strategies are heavily influenced by the nature of these states, especially swing states where targeted resources can tip the election.

Implications of the Electoral College System

  • Winning a presidential election without a majority of votes emphasizes the focus on swing states.

  • Data Presentation:

    • Candidate ad spending in states highlighted the strategic focus on swing states: Biden prioritized Florida with $74 million in ad spending.

Controversial Aspects of the Electoral College

  • Faithless Electors:

    • Electors are not federally mandated to vote according to popular vote; state-dependent laws control elector commitment.

    • Instances of faithless electors number 165 (90 for president, 75 for vice president) have occurred but never changed the outcome of an election, often voting for third-party candidates instead.

Historical and Constitutional Perspective

  • The formation of the Electoral College was a compromise at the Constitutional Convention; direct election was rejected 12 to 1.

  • Hamilton in Federalist #68 cited the expectation that qualified electors (elites) would ensure wise selections for the presidency.

  • The Electoral College is enshrined in the Constitution and difficult to change without a constitutional amendment.

Past Instances of Electoral College Controversies

  • Notable instances include:

    • The elections of 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016 where the loser of the popular vote became president.

    • Examples detailed by Shugart highlight 65 nations and 1,400 elections.

Major Controversy: Bush v. Gore (2000)

  • Election details:

    • George Bush (Republican) vs. Al Gore (Democrat), narrowly decided by Florida's 25 electoral votes.

    • Bush initially declared winner in Florida by a margin of 1,784 votes, triggering a recount due to the margin being less than 0.5%.

    • Legal battles ensued regarding recount processes and procedures.

  • Supreme Court Impact:

    • On December 9, 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court halted the recount, effectively awarding Bush the presidency amid ongoing disputes regarding the election's legitimacy.

Reflection on Election Certification and January 6 Events

  • Reference to the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection aiming to thwart the certification of the electoral votes.

  • Discussion regarding the implications of this insurrection on the future of presidential elections.

Questions for Consideration

  • Should the Electoral College be maintained or abolished? Relevant resources:

    • National Popular Vote: https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

    • Abolish the Electoral College PAC: https://abolishtheelectoralcollegepac.org/

  • Students are invited to share their informed opinions on the relevance and efficacy of the Electoral College.