Basis Calculations
Contracts Overview
Key Concepts
Benefits, Advantages, Risks, Promotional Points outlined for various contract types.
Deferred Delivery (DD)
Benefits
More flexible than a cash sale.
Assists with cash flow and tax management.
Payment can be deferred until delivery or into a new tax year.
No margin money required for contracts.
Grain can be sold prior to crop production.
Opportunity to establish a fixed price and delivery period for grain.
Eliminates risk associated with a declining futures market.
Reserves space for future deliveries.
Risks
The net price might not cover storage costs.
Futures price and/or basis levels may improve after contract establishment.
Producer must provide full tonnage and specified quality (grade).
Promotional Points
Allows payment deferral into the new tax year.
Guarantees a sale before grain production, eliminating futures price risk.
Basis Only
Benefits
Features are easy to understand when explained/demonstrated.
Establishes half of the price equation in advance.
Allows amendment or rolling of the basis value, taking advantage of grain futures markets (fee required).
Optimizes timing of pricing and delivery.
Eliminates risk of widening basis.
Stops storage costs once ownership transfers to AVC.
Cash advance possible (up to 70% of contract value).
Risks
Subject to futures risk.
Delivery is required to fulfill contract.
Further basis improvements are not possible once locked in.
Title of grain legally transfers to AVC.
Full payment due upon contract completion and futures locking.
Requires knowledge of futures and basis history.
Promotional Points
Focus on physical delivery and settlement.
Complete pricing decisions remain for the future, protecting against adverse basis moments since the basis value is pre-established.
Futures Only
Benefits
Basis can be set 30 days prior to designated delivery period (specific terms/protections apply).
Eliminates risk of lower futures prices.
Flexibility preserved for pricing basis.
No margin calls for sellers.
Risks
Subject to basis risk.
Delivery of contracts is mandatory (5,000 bu size).
Additional fees for smaller contracts (1,000 bu).
Loss of future market rally participation.
Knowledge of futures and basis history is required.
Accrual of storage charges until basis is set for grain in storage.
Promotional Points
Locking in futures price avoids downside market risk.
Reserves space for future delivery while establishing commodity quantity, grade, and delivery period.
Grain Pricing Orders (GPO)
Benefits
Uses breakeven information to create profit targets.
Applicable to various commodities across different delivery periods and future months.
Limitation on price changes advised (no more than 1-2 times) to retain trigger probability.
Service provider monitors market for desired price.
Flexibility to enter GPO anytime at various levels.
Automatic execution reduces emotional impact of pricing decisions.
Less time spent monitoring markets, more time on verifying marketing plans.
Risks
Market may surge post-target hit after execution.
Market may never reach target price.
Promotional Points
Eliminates concerns over missed pricing opportunities.
Introduces discipline in pricing decisions, contributing to best practices in marketing plans.
Summary of Contract Types
Contract Type | Abbreviation | Market Trend | Risks | Application of 'Best Practices' |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deferred Delivery | DD | Bearish Price may increase | Potential storage problems | Secure price and delivery in a bearish market |
Fixed Basis | FB | Bullish Basis may strengthen | Futures price may decrease | Secure price and delivery in a bearish market |
Futures First | FF | Bearish Futures price may increase | Basis may weaken | Store grain on farm and lock in a strong futures price |
Grain Pricing Orders | GPO | Bullish Price increases after target is hit | Target may not be hit | Disciplined way to secure a favorable price |
Cash Price Calculations
Formula:
Deferred Delivery
Cash price (futures + basis) set at signing.
Futures Only
Futures price fixed at signing.
Basis Contract
Basis price set at signing.
Spot Pricing
Sold 'off the combine' into spot market.
Fees
Yes, fees are applicable.
Fees apply only if contract rolled.
Examples: Weighted Average Pricing
Calculation of Various Contracts for Canola Production
Deferred Delivery: 20% of crop – Futures price = $510, Basis = -$24
Basis Only: 30% of crop – Cash price = $505, Futures price = $537
Futures Only: 10% of Crop – Cash price = $513, Basis = $4, Fee = $5
GPO: 30% of crop – Cash price = $525, Basis = -$12, Fee = $5
Spot Pricing: 10% of crop – Futures = $483, Basis = -$31
Weighted Average Calculation
Formula:
Results:
% Committed
Cash Price
Futures Price
Basis
Fees
DD
20
486
510
-24
Basis Only
30
506
497
9
Futures Only
10
513
514
4
GPO
30
494
511
-12
Spot Pricing
10
452
483
-31
Weighted Average Results:
Total Average Cash Price = $493.70
Total Average Futures Price = $504.10
Average Loss from Basis = $(8.40)
Fees = $2.00
Average Profit = $185.70 (breakeven price = $308).