Basis Calculations

Contracts Overview

Key Concepts

  • Benefits, Advantages, Risks, Promotional Points outlined for various contract types.

Deferred Delivery (DD)

  • Benefits

    • More flexible than a cash sale.

    • Assists with cash flow and tax management.

    • Payment can be deferred until delivery or into a new tax year.

    • No margin money required for contracts.

    • Grain can be sold prior to crop production.

    • Opportunity to establish a fixed price and delivery period for grain.

    • Eliminates risk associated with a declining futures market.

    • Reserves space for future deliveries.

  • Risks

    • The net price might not cover storage costs.

    • Futures price and/or basis levels may improve after contract establishment.

    • Producer must provide full tonnage and specified quality (grade).

  • Promotional Points

    • Allows payment deferral into the new tax year.

    • Guarantees a sale before grain production, eliminating futures price risk.

Basis Only

  • Benefits

    • Features are easy to understand when explained/demonstrated.

    • Establishes half of the price equation in advance.

    • Allows amendment or rolling of the basis value, taking advantage of grain futures markets (fee required).

    • Optimizes timing of pricing and delivery.

    • Eliminates risk of widening basis.

    • Stops storage costs once ownership transfers to AVC.

    • Cash advance possible (up to 70% of contract value).

  • Risks

    • Subject to futures risk.

    • Delivery is required to fulfill contract.

    • Further basis improvements are not possible once locked in.

    • Title of grain legally transfers to AVC.

    • Full payment due upon contract completion and futures locking.

    • Requires knowledge of futures and basis history.

  • Promotional Points

    • Focus on physical delivery and settlement.

    • Complete pricing decisions remain for the future, protecting against adverse basis moments since the basis value is pre-established.

Futures Only

  • Benefits

    • Basis can be set 30 days prior to designated delivery period (specific terms/protections apply).

    • Eliminates risk of lower futures prices.

    • Flexibility preserved for pricing basis.

    • No margin calls for sellers.

  • Risks

    • Subject to basis risk.

    • Delivery of contracts is mandatory (5,000 bu size).

    • Additional fees for smaller contracts (1,000 bu).

    • Loss of future market rally participation.

    • Knowledge of futures and basis history is required.

    • Accrual of storage charges until basis is set for grain in storage.

  • Promotional Points

    • Locking in futures price avoids downside market risk.

    • Reserves space for future delivery while establishing commodity quantity, grade, and delivery period.

Grain Pricing Orders (GPO)

  • Benefits

    • Uses breakeven information to create profit targets.

    • Applicable to various commodities across different delivery periods and future months.

    • Limitation on price changes advised (no more than 1-2 times) to retain trigger probability.

    • Service provider monitors market for desired price.

    • Flexibility to enter GPO anytime at various levels.

    • Automatic execution reduces emotional impact of pricing decisions.

    • Less time spent monitoring markets, more time on verifying marketing plans.

  • Risks

    • Market may surge post-target hit after execution.

    • Market may never reach target price.

  • Promotional Points

    • Eliminates concerns over missed pricing opportunities.

    • Introduces discipline in pricing decisions, contributing to best practices in marketing plans.

Summary of Contract Types

Contract Type

Abbreviation

Market Trend

Risks

Application of 'Best Practices'

Deferred Delivery

DD

Bearish Price may increase

Potential storage problems

Secure price and delivery in a bearish market

Fixed Basis

FB

Bullish Basis may strengthen

Futures price may decrease

Secure price and delivery in a bearish market

Futures First

FF

Bearish Futures price may increase

Basis may weaken

Store grain on farm and lock in a strong futures price

Grain Pricing Orders

GPO

Bullish Price increases after target is hit

Target may not be hit

Disciplined way to secure a favorable price

Cash Price Calculations

  • Formula: CashPrice=FuturesPrice+BasisFeesCash Price = Futures Price + Basis - Fees

  • Deferred Delivery

    • Cash price (futures + basis) set at signing.

  • Futures Only

    • Futures price fixed at signing.

  • Basis Contract

    • Basis price set at signing.

  • Spot Pricing

    • Sold 'off the combine' into spot market.

  • Fees

    • Yes, fees are applicable.

    • Fees apply only if contract rolled.

Examples: Weighted Average Pricing

Calculation of Various Contracts for Canola Production

  • Deferred Delivery: 20% of crop – Futures price = $510, Basis = -$24

  • Basis Only: 30% of crop – Cash price = $505, Futures price = $537

  • Futures Only: 10% of Crop – Cash price = $513, Basis = $4, Fee = $5

  • GPO: 30% of crop – Cash price = $525, Basis = -$12, Fee = $5

  • Spot Pricing: 10% of crop – Futures = $483, Basis = -$31

Weighted Average Calculation

  • Formula: WeightedextAverage=(weightprice)Weighted ext{ Average} = (weight-price)

  • Results:

    % Committed

    Cash Price

    Futures Price

    Basis

    Fees

    DD

    20

    486

    510

    -24

    Basis Only

    30

    506

    497

    9

    Futures Only

    10

    513

    514

    4

    GPO

    30

    494

    511

    -12

    Spot Pricing

    10

    452

    483

    -31

  • Weighted Average Results:

    • Total Average Cash Price = $493.70

    • Total Average Futures Price = $504.10

    • Average Loss from Basis = $(8.40)

    • Fees = $2.00

    • Average Profit = $185.70 (breakeven price = $308).