Chapter 7 — Voting and Elections (Comprehensive Study Notes)

7.1 Voter Registration

  • Constitutional & Legal Framework

    • Voting is a state power; procedures differ widely.

    • Federal interventions:

    • 15th15^{th} Amendment (prohibits racial discrimination).

    • 24th24^{th} Amendment (abolishes poll tax).

    • Voting Rights Act (VRA) 19651965 – bans literacy tests & gives U.S. attorney general power to send federal examiners.

    • Shelby County v. Holder 20132013 – struck down VRA “coverage formula,” shifting discretion back to states.

  • Historic Barriers & Devices

    • Literacy tests, grandfather clauses, poll taxes, intimidation/violence in post-Civil-War South.

    • Immediate impact of VRA:

    • Mississippi Black registration rose from 6.7%6.7\% ( 19651965 ) to 60%60\% ( 19671967 ).

    • Alabama: 19.3%→51.6%19.3\% \rightarrow 51.6\%.

    • Turnout 1964 vs 19681964\text{ vs }1968: MS 33.9%→53.2%33.9\% \rightarrow 53.2\%; AL 35.9%→52.7%35.9\% \rightarrow 52.7\%.

  • Current State Variations

    • Strict vs lenient ID standards (e.g., TX vs CA).

    • Same-day registration in 1414 states + DC; first adopted by Maine 19731973; yields about 4%4\% higher turnout.

    • North Dakota: no registration at all.

    • Online registration: pioneered by Arizona 20022002; 18+18+ states now; startup cost $250,000−$750,000\$250{,}000-\$750{,}000.

    • Oregon: automatic “Motor Voter 2.02.0” ( 20152015 ) – registers every 1818-year-old w/ DMV data.

  • Motor Voter Act – National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) 19931993

    • Registration opportunity at DMV & Social Security forms.

    • Boosted registrations +7%+7\% 1992−20121992-2012 but did not substantially raise turnout.

    • Pre-registration in FL raised youth turnout +13%+13\%.

  • Help America Vote Act (HAVA) 20022002

    • Mandates: new voting machines, disability access, statewide computerized registration rolls.

    • Cross-state programs: Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck ( 2929 states ), SAVE database in FL.

    • Pew study: 2424 million registrations obsolete.

  • Eligibility Rules

    • Must be citizen, resident, ≥18\ge18, mentally competent, not incarcerated (rules vary).

    • Felony disenfranchisement extremes: FL/KY permanent bar; VT/ME allow voting even in prison.

    • Misc. quirks: WI bans voters who “wager on an election;” VT requires sworn Voter’s Oath.

  • Logistics & Timelines

    • Typical residency req. 3030 days.

    • Update required after move (DMV links in some states).

    • Closed-primary states set early deadlines for party switch (e.g., NY long window).

7.2 Voter Turnout

  • Measuring Turnout

    • Populations:

    • Total population (largest, yields lowest rate).

    • Voting-Age Population (VAP) – ≥18\ge18.

    • Voting-Eligible Population (VEP) – VAP minus non-citizens, felons, etc.

    • Registered voters (smallest; yields highest rate).

    • 20122012 presidential election:

    • 42%42\% of total pop., 57%57\% VAP, 60%60\% VEP, 87%87\% registered voters actually voted.

  • Who Votes?

    • Age: 65−7465-74 highest ( ≈74%\approx74\% VEP ); 18−2418-24 lowest ( ≈41%\approx41\% ).

    • Education: college grads 75%75\% turnout vs HS or less 52.6%52.6\%.

    • Income: $100,000−149,999\$100{,}000-149{,}999 – 76.9%76.9\%; $15,000−19,999\$15{,}000-19{,}999 – 50.4%50.4\%.

    • Race/Ethnicity 20122012: White 63%63\%, Black 62%62\%, Asian 31.3%31.3\%, Hispanic 31.8%31.8\% (higher in NM 49%49\%; record Latino surge 20162016).

    • Gender: Women 63.7%63.7\% vs Men 59.7%59.7\%; women lean Democrat 41%41\% vs 25%25\% GOP ID.

  • Mobilization Efforts

    • Rock the Vote, MTV, Project Vote Smart.

    • Obama 20082008: youth turnout peaked 45%45\% (first uptick since 19721972 ).

  • Barriers & Apathy

    • Reasons non-voters give: too busy 19%19\%; illness 1515m; registration issues 5.5%5.5\%; transportation 3.3%3.3\%.

    • Voter ID laws: Indiana 20052005 first strict; Crawford v. Marion County 20082008 upheld.

    • Shelby ruling freed AL, GA, TX, etc. to implement ID rules.

    • Early voting/mail-only: TX 19881988; OR, CO, WA entirely by mail; CO turnout 1.8→2.01.8\rightarrow2.0 million 2010→20142010 \rightarrow 2014.

    • Compulsory voting: Belgium 87%87\% VAP; Turkey 86%86\%; Australia similar.

    • Voter fatigue—multiple elections cause drop-off.

    • Chronic minority & winner-take-all discourage opposition voters (e.g., Dems in UT).

7.3 Elections

  • Campaign Finance Evolution

    • Tillman Act 19071907 – banned corporate infederalraces.</p></li><li><p>FederalElectionCampaignAct(FECA)in federal races.</p></li><li><p>Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA)1971;;1974amendmentcreatedFEC.</p></li><li><p>Buckleyv.Valeoamendment created FEC.</p></li><li><p>Buckley v. Valeo1976–struckspendinglimitsonself−funding.</p></li><li><p>BipartisanCampaignReformAct(BCRA/McCain−Feingold)– struck spending limits on self-funding.</p></li><li><p>Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA/McCain-Feingold)2002–soft– soft limits, “I approve this message.”

    • McConnell v. FEC 20032003 upheld; Citizens United v. FEC 20102010 removed corp./union independent-expenditure caps ⇒ rise of super PACs.

    • 20122012 super PAC “Restore Our Future” $153 million\$153\text{ million}; 20142014 super PAC spending $345 million\$345\text{ million}.

    • Current limits (indexed biennially): individual ≤$2,700\le \$2{,}700/candidate/election, ≤$5,000\le\$5{,}000 to PAC, ≤$33,400\le\$33{,}400 to nat’l party; multi-candidate PAC ≤$5,000\le\$5{,}000 per.

  • Nomination Stage

    • Primaries vs Caucuses

    • Closed: only party registrants.

    • Open: any voter chooses ballot.

    • Top-Two/Jungle: all candidates → top 22 regardless of party (CA, WA for state offices).

    • Caucus: in-person alignment, debate (IA famous). Lower turnout ≈20%\approx20\% less than primaries.

    • Calendar & Front-loading

    • IA, NH, SC protected early slots.

    • States moving earlier ⇒ 20082008 “Super Duper Tuesday” ( 2424 states Feb 55 ).

    • Parties can penalize by stripping delegates.

  • Conventions

    • Tasks: delegate roll call, adopt platform (planks), VP announcement, media “bump.”

    • Incumbent party holds later convention.

  • General Election & Debates

    • Debate prep: image + substance (Kennedy–Nixon 19601960 lesson).

    • Election Day fixed: first Tuesday after first Monday in November (since 18451845).

  • Electoral College

    • 538538 electors (= House 435435 + Senate 100100 + DC 33). Majority 270270 wins.

    • Winner-take-all in 4848 states + DC; district system ME & NE.

    • Faithless electors rare: DC 20002000 blank ballot; MN 20042004 vote for “John Ewards.”

    • Tie ⇒ House decides (state delegation vote). None since 18241824.

  • Midterm Elections

    • Occur even-numbered non-presidential years; all House seats + 1/31/3 Senate.

    • Reverse coattail: president’s party usually loses seats (e.g., 20102010 GOP House wave).

7.4 Campaigns & Voting

  • Strategic Goals — 1) Persuade undecided, 2) Mobilize base.

  • Fund-Raising Dynamics

    • Early $ ⇒ viability. EMILY’s List motto “Early Money Is Like Yeast.”

    • 2015fundraisingleaders:Clintonfundraising leaders: Clinton\$47\text{ m},Cruz, Cruz\$14\text{ m},JebBush, Jeb Bush\$11\text{ m}.</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>PrimaryvsGeneralMessaging</strong></p><ul><li><p>Primaries:namerecognition;issuelists(Clinton“presents”ad;Huckabee“ChuckNorris”).</p></li><li><p>General:partycues,negativeoremotion−ladenads(“Daisy”.</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>Primary vs General Messaging</strong></p><ul><li><p>Primaries: name recognition; issue lists (Clinton “presents” ad; Huckabee “Chuck Norris”).</p></li><li><p>General: party cues, negative or emotion-laden ads (“Daisy”1964;Romneyeconomy; Romney economy2012).</p></li><li><p>Shadowcampaigns(SwiftBoat).</p></li><li><p>Shadow campaigns (Swift Boat2004;superPACs; super PACs2014 > \$300\text{ m}).

  • Technology & Media

    • TV era from 1952jinglestoKennedyimage.</p></li><li><p>BCRArequirescandidatevoice“Iapprove…”.</p></li><li><p>Softnews/infotainment:DailyShow,Colbert,etc.targetjingles to Kennedy image.</p></li><li><p>BCRA requires candidate voice “I approve…”.</p></li><li><p>Soft news/infotainment: Daily Show, Colbert, etc. target<45demographics.</p></li><li><p>Internet:Deandemographics.</p></li><li><p>Internet: Dean2004onlineonline200k via “turkey sandwich” stream; social media micro-targeting.

  • Voter Decision Rules

    • Party ID → straight-ticket boxes (MI example, potential down-ballot roll-off).

    • Issue-Based: single-issue (abortion, guns); or multi-issue research.

    • Retrospective – past performance; Prospective – expected future performance; Pocketbook – personal finance.

    • Strategic – lesser-evil / spoiler calculus.

    • Demographics & Image – attractiveness ⇒ perceived competence; age, gender, race (Obama, Clinton, McCain examples).

  • Incumbency Advantage

    • Reelection rates: House \approx95\%,Senate, Senate\approx82\%2014.</p></li><li><p>Explanations:namerecognition,warchests,franking,existingorgs,gerrymandering.</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>Gerrymandering</strong></p><ul><li><p>Redistrictevery.</p></li><li><p>Explanations: name recognition, war chests, franking, existing orgs, gerrymandering.</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>Gerrymandering</strong></p><ul><li><p>Redistrict every10years(census);partisandrawscreate“safe”seats;boostsincumbentreelection.</p></li></ul></li></ul><h3collapsed="false"seolevelmigrated="true">7.5DirectDemocracy</h3><ul><li><p><strong>Mechanisms</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>Initiative/Proposition</strong>–citizensdraftlaw/constitutionamendment→collectsignatures→ballot→simplemajoritypasses(subjecttocourtreview).</p></li><li><p><strong>Referendum</strong>–government−passedmeasuresenttovoters;orpopularreferendumtorepealexistinglaw.</p></li><li><p><strong>Recall</strong>–votersremoveofficialbeforetermends(CAGov.GrayDavisyears (census); partisan draws create “safe” seats; boosts incumbent reelection.</p></li></ul></li></ul><h3 collapsed="false" seolevelmigrated="true">7.5 Direct Democracy</h3><ul><li><p><strong>Mechanisms</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>Initiative/Proposition</strong> – citizens draft law/constitution amendment → collect signatures → ballot → simple majority passes (subject to court review).</p></li><li><p><strong>Referendum</strong> – government-passed measure sent to voters; or popular referendum to repeal existing law.</p></li><li><p><strong>Recall</strong> – voters remove official before term ends (CA Gov. Gray Davis2003;WIGov.Walker; WI Gov. Walker2012survivedsurvived\$60\text{ m} fight).

  • Geographic Patterns

    • Western/post-Civil-War states (Progressive influence) use more direct democracy. East/South fewer.

  • Initiative Procedure Variables

    • Pre-approval (AG or Lt. Gov.) for legality & fiscal note.

    • Signature threshold: percent of last gubernatorial vote (CA 5\%law/law/8\%amend⇒amend ⇒\approx 366k/585ksignatures).</p></li><li><p>Timeframe:signatures).</p></li><li><p>Time frame:150days(CA)todays (CA) to2 years (AZ).

    • Circulator rules: pay-per-signature caps, bans on payment.

    • Ballot timing: primary vs general (complex fiscal vs social policy measures).

  • Pros & Cons

    • Pro: bypass gridlock; citizen empowerment (CO & WA marijuana 2012).</p></li><li><p>Con:voterfatigue,informationdeficits(CAProp).</p></li><li><p>Con: voter fatigue, information deficits (CA Prop8confusion),wealthyinterestsbuypolicy(Rep.Issaconfusion), wealthy interests buy policy (Rep. Issa\$2\text{ m}→Davisrecall).</p></li></ul></li></ul><h3collapsed="false"seolevelmigrated="true">KeyTerms(selected)</h3><ul><li><p>→ Davis recall).</p></li></ul></li></ul><h3 collapsed="false" seolevelmigrated="true">Key Terms (selected)</h3><ul><li><p>\textbf{Ballot Fatigue}–drop−offinvotingdown−ballot.</p></li><li><p>– drop-off in voting down-ballot.</p></li><li><p>\textbf{Caucus}–in−personpartymeetingtochoosedelegates.</p></li><li><p>– in-person party meeting to choose delegates.</p></li><li><p>\textbf{Coattail Effect}–populartop−ticketliftsdown−ballot.</p></li><li><p>– popular top-ticket lifts down-ballot.</p></li><li><p>\textbf{Electoral College}––538electors,electors,270towin.</p></li><li><p>to win.</p></li><li><p>\textbf{Franking}–freemailforincumbents.</p></li><li><p>– free mail for incumbents.</p></li><li><p>\textbf{Gerrymandering}–partisanredistricting.</p></li><li><p>– partisan redistricting.</p></li><li><p>\textbf{Motor Voter}–NVRA– NVRA1993DMVregistration.</p></li><li><p>DMV registration.</p></li><li><p>\textbf{Super PAC}–independent−expenditure−onlycommittee(unlimited– independent-expenditure-only committee (unlimited).

    • VAP/VEP\textbf{VAP/VEP} – voting-age vs voting-eligible population.

    These bullet-point notes synthesize every major concept, statistic, legal case, historical example, strategy, and term introduced across Chapter 77, providing a complete study replacement for the source material.