Introduction to AI and Job Displacement

  • Author: Kentaro Toyama

  • Position: W. K. Kellogg Professor of Community Information, University of Michigan

  • Publication Date: October 27, 2017

  • Update Date: November 1, 2017

The Threat of AI to Employment

  • Automation Impact: The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) threatens to eliminate jobs that were once considered safe from automation.

  • Research Findings: A series of papers by Oxford researchers have ranked jobs based on their susceptibility to automation.

  • Jobs at Risk: Some jobs predicted to vanish include:

    • Real estate brokers.

    • Insurance claims adjusters.

    • Sports referees.

  • Cost Efficiency: Jobs are likely to disappear as AI achieves the ability to perform tasks at a lower cost than human workers.

Historical Context: Revolts Against Technological Unemployment

  • Historical Precedent: Mass unemployment due to technological advancements has historically led to revolutions or uprisings.

  • Example - The Luddites:

    • Historical Context: The Luddites were a group in 19th-century England who protested against industrialization.

    • Government Response: The British Army suppressed the Luddites, and legislation was enacted to protect industrial equipment.

  • Marxist Theory: Karl Marx theorized that the government becomes co-opted by the wealthy, raising the question of how the elite would respond if they were the ones becoming redundant.

The Consequences of Widespread AI Unemployment

  • Potential for a White-Collar Rebellion:

    • Affected Classes: Skilled upper-class workers such as lawyers, journalists, and corporate managers might find themselves unemployed due to AI.

    • Sociopolitical Implications: The potential existential threat could lead to a rebellion from those in more privileged positions in the workforce.

Evolution of AI Technology

  • Rapid Advancements:

    • Timeline: Significant advancements in AI have occurred in just two decades.

    • Technological Components: Advances due to improved hardware, vast amounts of data, parallel processing, and neural networks.

  • Capabilities of Modern AI:

    • AI can now:

    • Describe image content.

    • Translate languages.

    • Grade written essays.

    • Compose music.

    • Conduct financial analysis.

    • Write news articles.

    • Identify legal precedents.

    • Existing Myths: Traditional beliefs that computers cannot perform creative or emotionally empathetic tasks are being challenged.

    • Example - Google’s DeepDream:

    • A neural network technology that generates surreal, dream-like images, showing AI's creative potential.

Current Perspectives from Tech Leaders

  • Concerns from Industry Leaders:

    • Elon Musk (Tesla): Describes AI as humanity's “biggest existential threat.”

    • Bill Gates: Emphasizes the need for concern about AI's implications on employment.

    • Ray Kurzweil (Futurist): Predicts that by 2045, machine intelligence will match or exceed human intelligence, a concept referred to as the “singularity.”

Potential Outcomes of AI-Driven Job Apocalypse

  • Historical Missteps of the Luddites: The Luddites failed for several reasons:

    • Political Marginality: They were not a significant political force.

    • Lack of Organization: They were not well coordinated in their efforts.

    • Misdiagnosis of the Situation: They viewed the problem narrowly as a concern over technology or their employers rather than a broader systemic issue.

    • Public Support: They lacked adequate public sympathy and backing.

  • Contrasting White-Collar Movement:

    • Potential Advantages: A contemporary white-collar movement could benefit from strong political connections and organizational capabilities.

    • Awareness of Systemic Issues: This group would potentially recognize and articulate the economic system's failings that amplify technology's negatives.

    • Public Sympathy: As a relatable group potentially facing job loss, they may attract broader public support.

  • Concentration of Wealth: Expectation that the benefits of AI advancements will accrue only to a small number of individuals or corporations, leading to widespread displacement among the broader workforce.

    • Conclusion: The author's position is clear: the core issue lies not within technology itself but within the socio-economic structure that facilitates inequality, leaving many displaced by advancements in AI.