The Myth of Multipolarity: Notes

The Myth of Multipolarity: American Power's Staying Power

Introduction

  • In the 1990s, the U.S. had unquestionable global dominance across military, economic, and technological realms.
  • The U.S. foreign policy faced fewer external constraints.
  • Despite dissatisfaction, aspiring powers believed they couldn't overturn the U.S.'s status.

Shift in Perception of American Power

  • The U.S. has faced costly, failed interventions, financial crisis, political polarization, and isolationist impulses.
  • China's economic rise and assertiveness have grown.
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine seen as the end of U.S. primacy.
  • Many observers believe the world is transitioning to multipolarity.
  • The U.S. National Intelligence Council and some political figures support the idea of a multipolar world.

Argument Against Multipolarity

  • The world is not bipolar or multipolar.
  • The U.S. remains at the top of the global power hierarchy, above China and other countries.
  • The absence of balancing, a key feature of multipolar and bipolar systems, is evident.
  • Other countries cannot match the U.S.'s power through alliances or military buildup.

Power as Resources

  • Polarity is about measurable power, especially military might and economic strength.
  • Multipolarity requires three or more roughly matched states at the top.
  • No other country is a rough peer of the U.S. or China.
  • Using military outlays and economic output, the system is not multipolar and won't be for decades.

Historical Context

  • Before 1945, multipolarity involved shifting alliances among great powers.
  • Coalition arithmetic was crucial, with alliance shifts impacting the balance of power.
  • Today, alliances bind smaller states to the U.S.
  • The fate of great-power politics doesn't depend on any country's choice of partners unless the U.S. abrogates its alliances.

Challenges to Bipolarity

  • Using GDP and military spending, a case for emergent bipolarity could be made.
  • However, measures accounting for technological changes show the U.S. and China in different categories.
  • China's economic data has been questioned, with some estimates suggesting lower GDP growth than reported.
  • U.S. firms lead in global profit shares across various sectors.
  • The U.S. has a significant lead in payments for intellectual property.

Military Disparities

  • China is far from being a global military peer of the U.S.
  • The U.S. has command of the commons (air, sea, and space).
  • China lags behind the U.S. in key military capabilities.
  • The U.S. has devoted immense resources to developing these systems over decades.
  • U.S. nuclear submarines are too quiet for China to track.

Comparison with the Soviet Union

  • The Red Army was a real peer of the U.S. military during the Cold War, which China is not.
  • The Soviets had favorable geography, commitment to military production, and relatively uncomplicated military technology.
  • China faces challenges in producing complex weapons competitive with the U.S.

Partial Unipolarity

  • Power relations have changed, with China's rise and the return of great-power competition.
  • The world's largest-ever power gap will take a long time to close.
  • The distribution of power is closer to unipolarity than bipolarity or multipolarity.
  • The term "partial unipolarity" best describes the current distribution of power.
  • Dissatisfied powers are more willing to act, but the prospect of being balanced against constrains them.

Revisionism

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a sign of weakness, as it struggles to maintain its sphere of influence.
  • The war has undermined Russia's long-term economic prospects.
  • China's successes are modest, with limited territorial changes in the South China Sea.
  • China's interest in Taiwan is growing, but it is not comparable to past revisionist challenges.

China-Russia Partnership

  • The partnership creates problems for the U.S. and its allies but doesn't promise a systemic power shift.
  • The two countries do not have a formal alliance.
  • Cooperation is shallow and born of convenience.
  • Both countries are merely regional military powers.

Rough Times for Revisionism

  • Limited revisionist quests could spark a great-power war.
  • The system's stability should be put in historical perspective.
  • China doesn't have the same opportunity as Germany in the 1930s to augment its power by conquering neighboring countries.
  • Today's revisionists face the obstacle of being confined to regional balancing, while the U.S. can hit back globally.

America's Choice

  • The U.S.-centric alliance system has attained a structural character.
  • The current international order emerged from choices made by the U.S. and its allies.
  • The U.S. should not step back from its alliances and security commitments in Europe or Asia.
  • Alliances are valuable in the era of partial unipolarity.
  • The U.S. needs to use focus on trade deals, not military occupation.

Conclusion

  • The world in the age of partial unipolarity retains characteristics of total unipolarity.
  • International norms and institutions still constrain revisionists.
  • The U.S. retains command of the commons and economic leverage.
  • The myth of multipolarity obscures how much power the U.S. still has.