E

Chapter 6 Lecture 2

Overview of the Lecture on Civil War and Terrorism

  • The lecture focuses on two key topics: the Israel-Palestine conflict and the broader implications of insurgency and counterinsurgency dynamics.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

  • A discussion on credible commitment problems in the Israel-Palestine conflict, particularly focusing on land issues.

  • Overview of the Camp David Summit map outlining Israel's final offer, which consisted of:

    • Pinkish areas: Proposed immediate Palestinian sovereignty.

    • Grayed-out areas: Security zones initially controlled by Israeli Defense Forces, transitioning to Palestinian control after peace.

    • Dark gray areas: Regions where Israeli sovereignty would remain (Israeli settlements).

Expansion of Israeli Settlements
  • Post-2000, there has been significant growth in Israeli settlements, complicating peace negotiations.

  • Specific roads would remain under Israeli control but allow Israeli citizens access to places like the Dead Sea.

Credible Commitment Issues
  • Borders and Settlements:

    • Palestinian concerns: Trust in Israel's commitment to transferring security zones and halting settlement expansion was uncertain.

    • Israeli concerns: Fears that granting Palestinian sovereignty could lead to increasing Palestinian demands or military threats.

  • Security:

    • Israelis worried that reducing military presence would empower Palestinians to increase attacks.

    • Palestinians worried Israeli security forces would continue oppression by maintaining checkpoints and oversight.

  • Right of Return and Economic Resources:

    • Discussions surrounding the refugee crisis and expected financial reparations raised trust issues on both sides.

U.S. Involvement as a Third Party
  • The U.S. has offered to enforce agreements to increase the credibility of peace deals. However, Palestinian skepticism exists due to past U.S. support for Israel.

Insurgency and Counterinsurgency Dynamics

  • Discussions about asymmetrical conflicts between strong governments and weaker insurgent groups.

Insurgent Strategies
  • Building Relationships with Civilians:

    • Insurgents rely on civilian support for sustenance, shelter, and identity concealment.

    • Carrots and Sticks: Insurgents employ incentives (better services, healthcare) alongside threats to suppress cooperation with government forces.

Government Counterinsurgency Strategies
  • Governments adopt their own forms of carrot-and-stick approaches:

    • Carrot: Development projects to gain civilian support and demonstrate effective governance.

    • Stick: Threats of arrest or violence against suspected insurgent supporters, extreme cases involving ethnic cleansing or genocide to expose insurgents.

Historical Examples and Case Study: U.S. War in Iraq
  • Post-Iraq invasion under the belief of establishing a new government without strong opposition from civilians.

  • Emergence of insurgencies, primarily among Iraqi Sunnis concerned about a Shia-led government.

  • Shift in U.S. strategy towards winning civilian support through development projects, following a famous counterinsurgency manual published in 2007.

  • This strategy led to decreased violence, although remnants of these groups eventually rebranded as ISIS.

International Community and Civil Wars

  • The role of third-party actors is often limited, requiring impartial intervention to enforce peace agreements.

  • Peacekeepers may effectively sustain low-conflict situations but cannot inherently prevent civil wars.

Summary of Key Points on Civil Wars
  • Discussion of greed and grievance factors driving conflict.

  • Importance of opportunity structures (e.g., mountainous terrain, unemployment) in initiating rebellion.

  • Credible commitment problems as significant obstacles to peace agreements; one party's disarmament may weaken their future negotiating position.

Terrorism Discussion

  • Terrorism is an enduring issue, with a notable spike in fatalities following events such as 9/11.

  • Increased transnational terrorism, where groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS expanded operations beyond their home countries to engage with targets in the West, particularly in Europe.

Overview of Terrorism Motivations and Strategies

  • Discussion starts with the idea that terrorism is often viewed through the lens of irrationality but should also be understood strategically.

  • Groups executing terrorist actions tend to operate with strategic objectives in mind, even if individual's motivations appear irrational (like hatred).

Key Actors in Terrorism Strategies

  • Terrorist Organization: Often rebel groups, such as Al Qaeda or the Taliban.

  • Target State or Population: The specific state or civilian population being attacked, e.g., ISIS attacking France.

  • Home Population: The constituency that the terrorist organization seeks to appeal to for support, recruitment, and harboring, e.g., Al Qaeda appealing to Muslims in the Middle East.

Strategies of Terrorist Groups

1. Coercion (Attrition)

  • Defined as the strategy where groups aim to convey strength to an enemy by persistently attacking.

  • Objective: To impose costs on the target government and shift public opinion against the war.

  • Example:

    • Taliban attacks in Kabul aimed to get media attention in the U.S. to incite public desire to exit the Afghan war.

    • Rationale: Ordinary combat losses are often not sensational enough to sway public opinion compared to high-casualty terrorist attacks.

2. Provocation

  • Goal: To instigate a reaction from the targeted state that is perceived as excessive or oppressive by the local population, resulting in increased animosity towards that state.

  • Example:

    • 9/11 Attacks by Al Qaeda intentionally aimed at provoking U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan.

    • Objective: To frame the U.S.'s actions as a war of conquest and exacerbate anti-American sentiment in the Middle East.

3. Spoiling

  • This strategy undermines ongoing peace negotiations to foster distrust between a state and moderate factions of a rebel group.

  • Objective: To convince a target population that their negotiating parties are untrustworthy.

  • Example:

    • Hamas actions during negotiating periods with Israel aimed to disrupt the process and portray moderates as unsuitable partners for peace.

4. Outbidding

  • Strategy involves competing factions within a rebel group aiming to demonstrate their commitment to the cause over their rivals, often through terrorist acts.

  • Example:

    • Hamas attacks on October 7 as a mechanism to outbid Fatah and show they are the true representatives of Palestinian interests.

    • Suggested motivations might include provoking Israeli responses, spoiling peace negotiations, and asserting dominance over other factions.

Counterterrorism Strategies by States

1. Deterrence

  • Focused on taking actions that discourage terrorist activities through the threat of severe retaliation.

  • Examples include military responses and public assertions of strength.

2. Preemptive Actions

  • Refers to counter-terrorism efforts aimed at dismantling terrorist capacities before they can execute attacks.

  • Use of technology, such as drones, and intelligence gathering.

  • Caveat: Can engender resentment and opposition against the state performing these actions due to collateral damage.

3. Defensive Measures

  • Implementation of protective actions designed to safeguard against potential terrorist attacks.

  • Challenges: Defensive strategies sometimes result in social unrest or backlash due to perceived injustices, such as racial profiling.

4. Negotiation

  • The complexity of negotiating with terrorist groups is highlighted, often viewed as incentivizing further violence.

  • Example: Possible negotiation with the Taliban when seeking control over Afghanistan, indicating that negotiations might sometimes be necessary to avoid prolonged conflict.

  • States face trade-offs between maintaining security and engaging in dialogue with terrorist groups.

Conclusion

  • Discussion indicates a transition from security-focused content to international political economy topics like tariffs in upcoming lectures.

  • Acknowledgment of evolving complexities in understanding both terrorism and state responses, emphasizing a strategic approach rather than a purely emotional interpretation.