Replicating the Resource Curse: Summary of Findings and Methodological Innovations

Introduction

• Research shows a connection between natural resource wealth and civil wars.
• Michael Ross’s seminal work (2004) analyzes this relationship through ten causal pathways across thirteen conflicts.
• Key questions addressed in this study include:
  • Do Ross’s codings hold up to replication?
  • If not, how does this alter our understanding of civil war causes?
• Over 75% of original findings replicated, but key claims overturned regarding resources and civil conflict.

Ross's Original Findings

• Ross claimed that two causal pathways (looting by rebels and resource-based grievances) played little role in civil conflict.
• Findings suggested mixed effects of resources:
  • Some reduce war intensity and duration.
• His findings have faced scrutiny and further discussion in subsequent literature.

Methodology:

Replication Strategy

• The study replicates Ross’s work using:
  1. Original 78 sources from Ross.
  2. Updated sources totaling over 500 for a thorough evaluation.
• Total of 130 outcomes across 13 different cases analyzed.

Key Methodological Innovations

• Explicit Standards Approach developed to enhance:
  • Production Transparency (how data is generated),
  • Measurement Transparency (how data is coded), and
  • Analytic Transparency (how data is analyzed).
• Tools used:
  • Codebook for clear definitions and coding protocols.
  • Intercoder reliability tests (87% agreement achieved).
  • Review and documentation process for justifying coding choices.

Key Findings from Replication

Conflict Onset

• Evidence shows that looting and grievances significantly influence conflict onset contrary to Ross’s findings.
• Specific Cases:
  • Colombia: Looting by FARC funded war startup.
  • Sierra Leone: Local grievances linked to war onset.
  • Congo-Brazzaville: Proceeds diverted from resources raised tensions leading to conflict.

Conflict Intensity

• Resources are more typically linked to increased intensity of civil wars.
• Resource Battles pathway was found to be prevalent while Cooperative Plunder had lesser effect.
• More cases of government repression linked to resource control than initially recorded by Ross.

Conflict Duration

• Resources often extend the duration of conflict, significantly more often than Ross indicated:
  • Financial incentives from resources lead to prolonged fighting.
• Specific mechanisms like looting and financial incentives for continued fighting were previously underestimated by Ross.

Methodological Implications

• Raises standards for qualitative research to enhance replicability and validity.
• Highlights importance of rigorous source evaluation.

Future Research Directions

• Need for further investigation into various pathways linking resources to conflict in broader samples.
• Development of more nuanced conceptualizations and operationalizations in understanding these causal pathways.
• Suggests crafting larger-scale qualitative and mixed-methods studies to figure out dimensions of resource conflict relationships.

Conclusion

• Replication demonstrates that natural resources likely have a more pronounced effect on civil wars than previously understood.
• Aimed to contribute to ongoing discussions about the relationship between resources and conflict, challenging established narratives and defining methodological frameworks.