Fertility and Reproduction in Middle- and Low-Income Nations

Major Questions

  • When will global population stabilize and at what level?
  • How will the composition of the population change, and what effects will this have?
  • Is all fertility the same? Explore environmental impacts of reproduction globally.
  • Why has fertility declined in Latin America and Mexico?
  • What is stratified reproduction?

Low Fertility in Developing Countries

  • TFR below replacement (less than 2.1 children per woman): Countries include Iran, Brazil, China, Indonesia.
  • Around half the global population lives in regions with below-replacement fertility, leading to concerns over population aging and potential decline.

Trends in Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

  • 1950: TFR worldwide = 4.92 children/woman
  • 2010: TFR worldwide = 2.56 children/woman
  • 2050 projected TFR = 2.02 children/woman.
  • Global TFR below replacement expected by 2020, but was still 2.4 in 2019.

Global Fertility Overview

  • 1950s: 5 births per woman.
  • 2021: Average global TFR = 2.3 births per woman.
  • Projected decline to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.

Shifts in Population Composition

  • 9 countries in sub-Saharan Africa to account for over half of world population growth by 2050.
  • Notable reductions in population: Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine.
  • In 2018, for the first time, people over 65 outnumbered children under age 5.
  • Fertility reduction in sub-Saharan Africa can enhance economic growth via a growing working-age population (demographic dividend).

Environmental Impact of Fertility

  • Comparison of carbon footprint:
    • US child: 9441 tonnes
    • Chinese child: 1384 tonnes
    • Bangladeshi child: 56 tonnes
    • 156 Bangladeshi children = 1 US child.
    • 7 Chinese children = 1 US child.

Decline of Fertility in Latin America

  • Reasons for decline:
    • Industrialization
    • Urbanization
    • Education (especially women)
    • Access to contraceptives
    • Economic and political instability
    • Lack of family policies and welfare support
    • Family planning programs.

Mexico's Fertility Rate

  • Current TFR: 1.82 (World Bank, 2022).

Stratified Reproduction

  • Concept describes how certain groups are empowered to nurture and reproduce while others are disempowered (Ginsburg & Rapp, 1995).
  • International family planning programs focus on concerns overpopulation with campaigns such as Mexico's 1970s “Let’s Become Fewer.”

Issues of Forced Sterilization in Peru

  • Highlighted through discussions on women’s rights and medical ethics.
  • Example of stratified reproduction and the impact of socio-political factors on reproductive rights.