Iraq War

prospect theory

• utility is understood relative to a rederence point and is non linear

• utlity is steeper for losses than gains

• “loss frame” bargaining range seems to be smaller

understanding fearons model

• war happens when bargaining fails

• bargaining fails when the reservation value is less than the value of war

• fearon says choice is this

  • u(deal) vs u(war)

  • reservation value is the u(deal)

windows of opportunity

• prospect theory suggests that a window of opportunity is abouy a changing reference point (and a change in power)

• if we expect things to get worse, then we are in a loss frame

  • utility attaches to ancitipated outcomes relative to a reference point

• if we are in a loss frame, then we are riskier

Lake on the US Iraq War

• bargaining theory main insight: strategic interaction, choice between peace and war

• assumptions challenged of fearon:

  • no domestic politics; lake argues that oil and the domestic politics is very important for the iraq war

  • also argues sadaam cared a lot abt domestic politics and iran

  • fearons model has no post war enforcement cost

    • important bc phase 2 of the iraq war during occupation was the worst part