Immigration Notes
Immigration
Legal Immigration Trends
The graph illustrates legal immigration trends over time, showing approximately 1,000,000 immigrants per year. There was also an "Amnesty" period during this time.
Legal Immigration Categories (2018)
Immediate relatives of U.S. citizens: 44%
Family-sponsored preferences: 20%
Employment-based preferences: 13%
Diversity: 4%
Refugees: 14%
Other: 6%
Economic Benefits of Immigration
In 2017, approximately 29 million immigrants were working or seeking work in the U.S., constituting 17% of the civilian workforce.
About 21.2 million were lawful immigrants, while 7.6 million were undocumented (down from 8.2 million in 2007).
Immigrants and their children are projected to add about 18 million people to the U.S. working-age population between 2015 and 2035, offsetting a decline.
In recent years, immigration has accounted for one-third of U.S. population growth and one-half of U.S. labor force growth.
Reasons to Migrate
Escape political or religious persecution
Reunite with family members
Take advantage of superior economic opportunities.
Increase value of their human capital.
magnet countries: U.S., Western Europe, Australia
Factors Affecting the Decision to Migrate
Moving costs:
Explicit (moving expense)
Implicit (related costs)
Distance: Greater distance reduces likelihood due to cost, separation from friends and family, and difficulty of trips home.
Following well-established migration paths (clustering).
Age: Younger individuals are more likely to migrate due to longer time horizon to reap benefits.
Other factors: Language proficiency, tax laws, and concerns about children's future.
Employment Effects of Immigration: Competing Views
Two extreme views:
Immigrants displace domestic workers one-for-one.
Immigrant work is undesirable to native-born workers.
Many immigrants are highly skilled and educated.
In the short run, large-scale immigration increases the supply of low-skilled workers, lowering wage rates for these workers.
At lower wage rates, fewer U.S. workers take low-skill jobs, and immigrants fill more of these jobs.
Labor Market Model
The quantity of labor (the number of workers) is shown along the horizontal axis, and the price of labor (the wage rate) is shown along the vertical axis.
The demand curve D is the demand for low-skilled workers, and S is the supply of native-born U.S. workers who offer their labor services to the low-skill labor market.
The equilibrium wage rate is 4 per hour.
As a result, the number of native-born workers is just 50,000 workers, while the total number of workers is 200,000.
Fiscal Impacts of Immigration
Since the 1970s, the fiscal burden has exceeded taxes paid, but this has somewhat reversed with 1996 welfare law changes.
Immigration reduces wages of native-born Americans without a high school diploma, native-born African American men, and native-born holders of doctorate degrees.
Average wage impact ranges from -3% to +2%. Research findings are mixed.
Long-Run Effects of Immigration on Employment
In the longer run, effects of immigration are less clear.
Lower wages decrease business firms’ costs of production, thereby increasing profits.
This may encourage businesses to expand, leading to lower prices.
A larger labor force encourages expanded productivity and economic growth.
Immigrants are consumers, increasing demand for labor as they purchase goods and services.
Immigrants, as a group, are entrepreneurial and are more likely to start up businesses than are native-born citizens.
Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Since 1990, U.S. immigrants have founded one of every four public companies backed by venture capital.
Notable examples include Yahoo, Intel, eBay, Google, and Sun Microsystems, all having one or more immigrant founders.
Half of the engineers and people with computer science doctorates in the U.S. are foreign-born.
One-quarter of MLB players are foreign-born.
Undocumented Immigration
Estimated at 350,000 per year on average, using Census data.
A high proportion originate from Mexico and Central America.
Almost half reside in California, New York, and Texas.
Work mainly outside of agriculture and, on average, have higher educational levels than Mexicans who legally migrate to the United States.
Economic Effects of Undocumented Immigration
Employment effects are similar to legal immigration but with a larger impact.
Contributes to increasing scarcity of domestic unskilled labor in the U.S.
Significant employment shares in certain sectors:
24% of all agricultural workers
17% of all cleaning workers
14% of construction workers
12% of food preparers
Price and Fiscal Effects of Undocumented Immigration
Cheap labor helps keep prices low in sectors like construction, agriculture, landscaping, home cleaning, restaurants, and lodging.
Taxes go to the federal government, while costs (schools, medical care, criminal justice system) are borne by state and local governments.
Fiscal impacts can be sizeable.
Other concerns include criminal activity, homeland security, and legal immigration issues.
Immigration Policy Debates
Animosity toward immigrants has permeated public policy, affecting eligibility for welfare benefits and requirements to use English on forms and exams.
President Bush proposed a dual program of providing work visas for undocumented immigrants already in the country.
Conservatives are split on the issue: some oppose any overtures to undocumented workers, while others support access to cheap Mexican labor.
Liberals are concerned with equity issues, including requirements to display documentation before receiving health care.
Disagreement between House and Senate hindered passage of immigration bill.
Public Opinion on Immigration Reform (2013)
A majority of Americans would vote for each of six different policy changes that Congress is considering as part of a comprehensive immigration reform bill.
Support was as high as 87% for a multifaceted pathway to citizenship that includes a long waiting period, taxes and a penalty, background checks, and learning English.
Only six percent say immigration is the nation's most important problem, putting it seventh on the list of specific problems facing the country.
Potential Disruptions from Crackdown on Undocumented Immigrants
Labor shortages and weaker economic growth.
Would cut already low unemployment rate among legal residents.
Push up wages, or lead to more automation or cutback in production.
Undocumented workers are younger and more likely to work (92% between 18 and 64 compared to 60% of U.S. born population).
International migrants may become the only source of growth for the working-age population.
Industry Concentration of Undocumented Workers
Undocumented workers are concentrated in certain industries.
1 in 6 agricultural workers, 13% of construction workers, 9% of hospitality industry.
Not just border states that are affected; NJ, MD, and NY also above the national average.
Slowdown in Undocumented Immigration
The number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. tripled between 1990 and 2007.
That number fell 8% in 2009 because of deceased job prospects during the recession.
Undocumented immigration population leveled off 2010 and 2011 at 11.1 million.
Reasons for Slowdown
Expected to pick up again when recession ended, but didn't. Why?
Falling birthrates in Mexico: In 1960 there were 7.3 births per woman per lifetime; by 2009, that number had fallen to 2.4 births.
Economic growth in Mexico: The economy grew nearly 5 percent per year between 2009 and 2011, driving up wages (NAFTA).
Increased access to consumer goods (flat-screen TVs, cars, and trucks).
Increased U.S. immigration enforcement.
Economists' Consensus on Immigration Benefits
An open letter from 1,470 economists expressed broad consensus that immigration is one of America’s significant competitive advantages in the global economy.
Immigration represents an opportunity rather than a threat to the economy and to American workers, with proper safeguards.
Benefits of Immigration (Economists' View)
Immigration brings entrepreneurs who start new businesses that hire American workers.
Immigration brings young workers who help offset the large-scale retirement of baby boomers.
Immigration brings diverse skill sets that keep our workforce flexible, help companies grow, and increase the productivity of American workers.
Immigrants are far more likely to work in innovative, job-creating fields such as science, technology, engineering, and math that create life-improving products and drive economic growth.
Costs and Benefits of Immigration
Immigration has economic costs, particularly for Americans in certain industries and those with lower educational attainment.
However, the benefits that immigration brings to society far outweigh their costs.
Smart immigration policy could better maximize the benefits of immigration while reducing the costs.
Trump Administration's Immigration Actions
Cancelled the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which provides work authorization and temporary relief from deportation to approximately 690,000 unauthorized immigrants brought to the United States as children.
The average time to approve employer-sponsored green cards doubled.
The backlog for citizenship applications since 2014 increased by 80 percent to 900,000.
Most of the immigration actions initiated by the Trump administration have been reversed by the Biden administration.
Biden Administration's Immigration Plan
Significantly expand the legal immigration system, addressing seven areas: high-skilled workers, trafficking victims, families of Americans living abroad, American Indians born in Canada, refugees, asylum-seekers, and farm workers.
Critics say the Biden administration is ignoring the negative consequences of their efforts.
The H-1B program provides loopholes for tech companies to import cheap foreign workers to compete for jobs.
Granting asylum to the victims of domestic abuse could open the door to accepting millions of additional people.
Some Republicans say the proposed policies will loosen the vetting of foreigners increasing the threat of terrorism.
American Perceptions of Immigrants (2020)
U.S. immigrants are seen more as a strength than a burden to the country.
63% say immigrants strengthen the country through hard work and talents, compared to 24% who say they burden the country by taking jobs, housing, and health care.
(Pew Research Center data from 1994-2019 shows a trend of increasing perception of immigrants as a strength.)
Partisan Divide in Perceptions (2020)
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 88% think immigrants strengthen the country with their hard work and talents, and just 8% say they are a burden.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 41% say immigrants strengthen the country, while 44% say they burden it.
Americans were divided on future levels of immigration: 24% said legal immigration should be decreased, 38% said it should be kept at its present level, and 32% said it should be increased.
Satisfaction with Immigration Levels (2022 Gallup Poll)
Republicans:
11% satisfied
3% dissatisfied, should be increased
69% dissatisfied, should be decreased
15% dissatisfied, no preference
Independents:
34% satisfied
9% dissatisfied, should be increased
32% dissatisfied, should be decreased
14% dissatisfied, no preference
Democrats:
52% satisfied
15% dissatisfied, should be increased
11% dissatisfied, should be decreased
14% dissatisfied, no preference
Immigration and the US Labor Shortage
More than a million immigrants are waiting on the US government to renew or issue them work permits.
Months long USCIS office closures and staff shortages have created a backlog of more than 8 million applications across all types of immigration benefits — including green cards and visas.
There were nearly 11 million open jobs as of the end of December, many in industries ranging from tech to trucking that need every worker they can get.
The US needs to leverage its existing immigrant workforce, but the work permit backlog is standing in the way.